AL Playoff Tie-Breakers

by Pajammies 5:55 PM 0 comments

With 4 games to play, the AL Playoffs are in a huge log-jam: two Division Titles are still up for grabs, as is the second Wild Card spot.

I figured the straightforward playoff scenarios are pretty easy to eye-ball -- the most wins is in -- so I thought I'd take a shot at outlining any (all?) potential tie-breakers, since it seems quite possible we will have some.

I'm just going from the top of the Standings page to the bottom, so don't get all bent out of shape because the Ottawa Eh's are first, ok?!

Clinched Division:

AL East: New York Knights (current record: 78-80)

AL West: Omaha Settlers (97-61)

Clinched Playoff Spot:

Nashville Merchants (95-63)

Little Rock n Roll (94-64)

Nashville has already clinched the season series, so Little Rock needs to finish with a better record to claim the AL South title.

Still Alive:

Ottawa Eh's

Burlington Bulldogs

Columbus Dodger Blue

Oakland Hammers

San Juan Elephant Seals

Helena Hellas

Tie-Breakers

Assuming the paired teams' records end up the same, tie-breakers are as follows (for a quick tie-breaker summary, scroll to the bottom of this post):

Ottawa Eh's vs Burlington Bulldogs:

• Ottawa wins season series 6-4

Ottawa Eh's vs Columbus Dodger Blue:

• Teams conclude season against each other -- Ottawa currently leads season series 4-3. For teams to tie, Columbus must win final series 2-1:
• Series tied 5-5;
• Division record would be tied in any scenario: 17-13 or 16-14;
• Ottawa has a +86 run differential, Columbus has a +12 run differential -- Ottawa will win the tie-breaker unless Columbus' run differential is 74 or more than Ottawa's over the final 4 games

Ottawa Eh's vs Oakland Hammers:

• Oakland wins season series 7-3

Ottawa Eh's vs San Juan Elephant Seals:

• Ottawa wins season series 6-4

Ottawa Eh's vs Helena Hellas:

• Series tied 5-5;
• Ottawa wins Division record, either 16-14 to 14-16 OR 15-15 to 13-17

Burlington Bulldogs vs Columbus Dodger Blue:

• Burlington either wins season series 6-4, OR tied 5-5;
• Division record would be tied in any scenario, 17-13, 16-14, or 15-15;
• Burlington has a +18 run differential, Columbus has a +12 -- Burlington will win the tie-breaker unless Columbus' run differential is 6 or more than Burlington's over the final 4 games
• Final tie-breaker is last season's record, which Columbus would win

Burlington Bulldogs vs Oakland Hammers:

• Series tied 5-5;
• Oakland wins Division record in any scenario: 19-11 to 18-12, 18-12 to 17-13, 17-13 to 16-14, or 16-14 to 15-13

Burlington Bulldogs vs San Juan Elephant Seals:

• San Juan wins, 6-4

Burlington Bulldogs vs Helena Hellas:

• Series tied 5-5;
• Burlington wins Division record in any scenario: 16-14 to 14-16, 15-15 to 13-17, or 14-16 to 12-18

Columbus Dodger Blue vs Oakland Hammers:

• Series tied 5-5;
• Oakland wins Division record in any scenario: 19-11 to 18-12, 18-12 to 17-13, 17-13 to 16-14, or 16-14 to 15-15

Columbus Dodger Blue vs San Juan Elephant Seals:

• Series tied 5-5;
• San Juan wins Division record in any scenario: 19-11 to 17-13, 18-12 to 16-14, 17-13 to 15-15, or 16-14 to 14-16

Columbus Dodger Blue vs Helena Hellas:

• Helena wins season series 7-3

Oakland Hammers vs San Juan Elephant Seals:

• Series tied 5-5;
• San Juan wins Division record in any scenario: 19-11 to 18-12, 18-12 to 17-13, or 17-13 to 16-14

Oakland Hammers vs Helena Hellas:

• If Oakland wins at least one game against Helena, Oakland wins the season series;
• If Helena sweeps Oakland, series would be tied at 5-5;
• Oakland wins Division record in any scenario: 17-13 to 14-6 or 16-14 to 13-17

San Juan Elephant Seals vs Helena Hellas:

• Series tied 5-5;
• San Juan wins Division record in any scenario: 18-12 to 14-16, 17-13 to 13-17, 16-14 to 12-18, or 15-15 to 11-19

Summary Table: