AL predictions revisited

Here is the predictions (pro-rated for 90 games) vs. reality for the AL teams I made predictions for in August. The upside: I had the right division leader in each division. while

Biggest surprise? Honolulu--Honolulu is a full ten games better than I predicted, is 20 games over 500, and currently has a sizable lead in the wild card race, while giving Oakland a reason to watch their rearview mirror.

Biggest disappointment? Chicago--The fatties made the playoffs last season, but are 4 games under 500 as we approach the all star break and are currently last in their division.

Biggest variance? Minnesota--The twin city squad has not been the team I thought they'd be (though they tend to turn it on the 2nd half, and are still up four games in their division). They are a full 13 games under where I thought they'd be through 90 games.

Here are the standings, with predictions followed by actual records:

Minnesota 62-38 49-41

NY 40-50 45-45

Portland 37-53 35-55

Montreal 34-56 33-57

Norfolk 61-29 55-35

Chicago 50-40 43-47

DC 47-43 47-43

Boston 45-45 48-42

Monterrey 50-40 49-41

Texas 41-49 38-52

San Juan 40-50 41-49

Atlanta 32-48 36-54

Oakland 56-34 59-31

Honolulu 45-45 55-35

Omaha 43-47 41-49

Arizona 35-55 41-49

Season 13, year of the pitcher

If 1983 is the year of greatest NFL quarteback draft class, season 13 might just go down as the year of the greatest influx of pitching talent brought in thru the amatuer draft. In a world where a pitcher has been drafted 1st or 2nd overall in every season except 1, and where a pitcher has been drafted #1 overall over half the time, never has such an influx of pitching talent embarked on their Plumpyville!!!!!111 career as we've witnessed in the season 13 amatuer draft.

10 of the first 11 selections in the most recent draft were pitching prospects, not to mention a few more solid talents drafted just a shade later. In fact, with so much premium pitching talent drafted early on, one has to question the mental state of urbanwarrior, passing up all this talent with the #4 pick to take the only non pitcher at the top of the draft. Sure Zeke_Evans is a fine prospect in his own right, perhaps a regular all-star 2nd baseman, if not hall of famer, but will the esteemed Mr Urban Warrior be kicking himself in 3 seasons when he's looking to add 1 more piece to his starting rotation? Only time will tell.

So without further ado, we'll use this space to evaluate, track, adulate, and mock each of the first 10 pitchers over their careers in plumpville. Should any have their arms fall off while attempting a tribal warrior dance, thier owner will be suredly mocked, while if any should sign a Todd Ford, well below market value extension before testing the free agent waters contract, their owners will be strung from the festivus pole by their skivies and forced to beg for mercy.

With the #1 overall selection, Tampa Bay picked Glen_Brett a dominating righty on the fast track to the majors. Brett earned top draft pick status by displaying pinpoint control of his mid 90's sinker and 4 seam fastball, plus a major league level slider and curve, with the potential to turn them into + pitches on the major league level. Glen has started his career in AA with an initial pitching skill set of 82-71-62-77-75-68-72-63-48-24-54

Verdict: time to purchase that investment property on clearwater beach, with his combination of makeup and patience, Brett could be headlining the Tampa rotation into his late 30s or even early 40s.

Using the internet to gain access of Montreal's owner in comprimsing positions, Texas high school phenom Walter_Pote was able to strong arm his way from the bottom of the 1st round up into the #2 slot. Montreal owner bulls7210 claims this selection was based primarly on signability, rumors have already circulated about that night in South Padre Island. Pote projects as the classic "crafy lefthander" for while he has below average stuff, he has a vast arsenal of above average pitches to keep opponents off balance. While Pote's ceiling isn't quite as high as the other top pitchers, his combination of near perfect makeup and patience means he'll settle into Montreal rotation as a solid #3 or #4 pitcher and remain there for a long time. In a perfect world, this Jamie Moyer clone will continue to throw league average innings well into his 40's. While he's only 18, Pote high makeup have caught the eye of the daughter of the head basketball coach with an over-inflated ego at one particular haughty-taughty university in the mid west.

Verdict: Pote takes his initial skill set of 56-66-53-45-34-36-70-65-54-56-38 to rookie ball where he's still working out the kinks. While Montreal missed out on some of the top end talent, should Pote avoid arm injuries he'll be a solid fixture in the Montreal rotation for a good 15 seasons.

With the #3 pick, the Bad Logos selected Scott Boras client Craig_Winston arguable the top high school arm in the draft, concerns of his prima donna attitude were well founded when reports of his record $11+ millon signing bonus first surfaced. While never a threat to break a window with his fastball, Winston uses an overwhelming combination of sinkers, sliders and curves with near perfect control and great health. He'll never be a threat to lead the league in strikeouts, but with a solid defense behind him should project to something greater than Bronson Arroyo, dipsy-dooling his way thru the lineup, keeping opponents off balance from both sides of the plate while hopefully never missing a scheduled start due to injury.

Verdict: While the price tag is high, the projections certainly look to be worth the price tag. Winston will need about 4 seasons of grooming in the minors, but should be ready to dominate plumpyville in his early 20s. His starting skill set is: 57-52-53-55-26-78-79-67-43-39-0

At #5, Arizona selected Lyle_Hines another great pitching prospect with outstanding makeup and patience potentiall making him a fixuture on the Chase Field bump for 15+ seasons. Hines is a true "pitcher's pitcher" when he takes the mound, going all out with termendous velocity on two ++ pitches, an above average slider, and a workable changeup. While Lyle has a perfect history of health, he leaves nothing out on the mound, often tiring by the 7th inning and turning things over to the bull pen. Lyle has started his rookie league campaign in near perfect style sporting a skill set of: 54-69-46-53-67-68-64-65-37-27-0

Verdict: A great selection for Arizona, Lyle should dominate the first 7 innings each time out and could be a fixture in their rotation from age 22 thru his late 30s.

At #6, Boomer_Conroy was the 5th pitcher was selected by Boston skipper bobsquad. This highschool superstar out of Jersey is the son of former Maryland ace Mr Conroy, and was named after his father's one time college roommate. Another crafty lefty, Boomer uses pinpoint control with an array of 4 average to plus pitches to burn thru the competition. He has great sink on his fastball, and has the ability to take his team deep into games. Boomer's initial skill set at the time of draft was: 71-54-44-45-29-58-70-62-36-28-0

Verdict: While Boomer should be a solid contributer in the majors for a long time, bobsquad's lower HS and college scouting buget likely caused him to miss out on several higher end arms draft a few slots behind Boomer. Boomer should settle into a solid #2/#3 that can save the bullpen some innings by regularly going deep into games.

With the 7th selection, Texas takes the pride of Pittsburgh (Kansas that is) Chad_Pride While Pride lacks the ideal stamina of a true #1, his stuff screams rotation ace. Pride commands both sides of the plate with a screaming sinker, often topping out in triple digits, a plus slider and a devestating changeup. Chad also sports the occasional cut fastball, though rumors are the Texas coaching staff is trying to get Chad to ditch the 4th pitch and concentrate on his 3 main weapons. Chad initial pitching set is: 48-53-46-53-74-66-63-56-38-11-0

Verdict: Chad may have the most dominating stuff in the draft, however his lower stamina and low level of patience means he'll be hitting the free agent market well before his career is over. Texas went above slot bring Chad into the fold, but he'll no doubt be a solid centerpiece as zhawks rebuilds his new franchise

At #8, Portland adds high school sensation Vic_Pena out of Ft Washington, Pa. Pena's lower makeup and patience helped him slide to Portland at #8, but you won't find coach IRock complaining any time soon. Pena is a dominating righty, sporting a ++ spliter and slider combo along with a + curveball and below average changeup. Drafted into a club with a pitcher extreme park, Pena's sink should more than makeup for his lack of velocity. If Portland can put a solid defense behind him, he should challenge for 10 complete games a season.

Verdict: Another solid HS arm that's tough to knock. Perhaps the ideal draft pick for Portland's park, should reach the majors in 4-5 seasons and would be the #1 in most rotations.

With the 9th overall selection, pitcher #8 comes off the board to Cleveland. jjboogie drafts high school righty Boots_Gonzalez out of Cali. Boots perhaps defines the term major league average more than any other pitcher in the top 10. Aside from his great control and + changeup, Boots displays an ideal average stamina, splits, sink and stuff on his pitches. However, this is a good thing, as Boots also contains no weaknesses in his game either. With great patience and above average makeup, Boots should prove a solid #2 pitcher for Cleveland for a long time.

Verdict: With initial draft skills of 55-55-41-46-72-60-70-53-28-22, Boots likely won't be the guy you think of when facing a must win game 7, however, he's the guy you'll want on the mound in games 2 & 6 to give you a great shot at winning a postseason series. A great pick at #9, would have gone higher in most drafts.

At 10, Harold_Aspromonte was selected by New Jersey. I'm not sure I know what a Harry Aspromonte looks like, but I know this kid has the distinction of being both the first Juco and the first reliever selected in season 13. A dominating right hander with questionable health, Harry shuts down right handers w/ a mix of a devestating changeup and knee buckling slider. If Harry can spend more time on the bump than on the training table, he'll be a strong commoditiy for the Generals.

Verdict: If some consider it a sin to draft a reliever in the top 10, what would they consider a guy w/ big time health concerns? With solid stamina for a closer, and great durability, perhaps New Jersey can keep him from getting over-extended and thus keep him out of the infimary. His level of success will be largely determined by how much time he spends off the disablied list, because his skill set screams all-star closer. At the time of the draft, Harold's pitching skill set is: 26-64-55-68-80-74-78-65-0-0-0

Finally, with the 11th pick and 10th pitcher overall, Tacoma selects Rene_Richardson Similar to Boots Gonzalez, drafted ahead of him, Rene features mostly average stuff w/ great control and better stamina. However, Rene sports less than ideal durability, meaning he may need to slide into a 6 man rotation or limit his innings each start. He may struggle a bit verse lefties, but w/ super high makeup ratings, he's likely to reach most of his projections if given enough time to develop. Rene's initial skill line is: 66-58-37-45-75-63-56-52-28-37-0

Verdict: As mentioned before in the Boots review, Rene shouldn't hurt you on the mound, may even make the occasional all-star game, especially in Tacoma's pitcher friendly park, however he's not the guy you want to call upon in a must win game. Should settle into a solid middle of the rotation starter, may need to skip a start or two to ensure that he keeps fresh.

Others 1st round picks worth watching:
Jeff_Ausmus 14th overall; could have easily made the top 10 if he had just slightly better stuff
Denny_Yoshi 17 th overall; should fill in the middle of Washington's rotation in a few seasons.
Lucas_Peterson 20th pick, and Texas' 2nd pitcher this draft; Should fill in nicely behind Chad Pride, however like Pride he lacks ideal stamina, so zhawks better be on a long reliever hunt.
Esmalyin_Alveraz 27th overall, may be the best closer in the draft, but probably won't sign.
Wayne_Callaway 32 overall, dominat left handed closer, who may struggle a bit vs righties.

Since its probably a bit to early to do a true ranking of these kids until they get a minor league season or two under their belts, I'll summon my inner Smokey Robinson and provide a "Tiers of a Clown":
Polish up the bronze plaque, Cooperstown is calling:
Glen Brett
Craig Winston
Lyle Hines

Mario Soto: Gonna dominate for a period of time, but will be forgotten when hall of fame eligibility comes up:
Chad Pride
Vic Pena

No fluff, just stuff, mr reliable:
Boots Gonzalez
Rene (don't call me Russo) Richardson

Just give me a shot, to hell with the Doc:
Harold Aspertame

Not terrible, but leave something to be desired:
Walter Pote
Boomer Conroy

Please vote in the new poll, and we'll keep track, hopefully taking an annual vote thru their first several seasons in the majors as we track how these kids develop.

Plumpy Rules 1st Rd Draft Recap!!!!!111 Part 1

1. Tampa Bay Pirates - Glen Brett - SP
The best pitcher available, Glen Brett, could pitch now in on majority of ML staffs. His approach is top notch with plenty of upside and very good control. The USC senior should be able to handle a pro workload as he is well known for going deep into games and showed what he could do on 3 days rest in the Super Regionals and CWS. Right now his pitches need the most work as none of them are flashy.
Perfect World Projection: #1 starter with 230+ IP
Glass-Half Empty: Right now he is a #2-3 starter on most any team.

2. Montreal Expositions - Walter Pote - SP
Montreal upset pundits by going with a signability pick at #2 in HS SP Walter Pote. Pote's best quality aside from his willingness to sign for slot is his healthy array of pitches where 3 project to be plus-pitches. He doesn't throw hard which leads to his pitch to contact-style and has tendency to be a bit homer prone. His arm trouble for someone his age is a red flag and we can trust Montreal to closely monitor his workload early on.
Perfect World Projection: 3-4 starter
Glass-Half Empty: His arm falls off and is left to toil in the minors

3. Atlanta Bad Logos - Craig Winston - SP
The best HS pitcher available and Winston knew it, forcing Atlanta to cough up a record bonus in order to get him to sign. He doesn't have a poor pitch in his repertoire, sets up hitters well, and has great control. When does give up a hit, its usually on the ground, and rarely gives up a homer. He is quite durable for an 18 year old and with his work ethic, should move up the ATL system quickly. The Shockers paid the price for him, but it was a real coup for him to fall to them at #3.
Perfect World Projection: #1 SP and one of the top 5 pitchers in the world
Glass-Half Empty: Quality SP

4. Kansas City Warriors- Zeke Evans - CF
KC grabbed the only bat of the top 10 with NMSU senior Zeke Evans. Evans profiles as a defensive whiz who take great routes on balls and doesn't rely on his speed to make plays. His bat is the shakiest part of his game where he doesn't excel at anything he isn't terrible at anything either. He isn't picky at the plate and can make a decent amount of contact. The most exciting part of his offensive game is his speed and basestealing ability where he could break 60+ steals. There are questions about his desire to play the game which could impede his development.
Perfect World Projection: GG caliber CF with a .750+ OPS
Glass Half-Empty: His glove doesn't justify him being an everyday player

5. Arizona Armadillos- Lyle Hines - SP
Hines is an 18 year old RHP with good durability and an excellent work ethic. He has two excellent pitches, a low 90's 2-seamer and mid 80's slider combo that he spots well. His approach is advanced for his age but doesn't figure to have much upside but his pinpoint control and groundball tendencies should help in case he doesn't miss enough bats.
Perfect World Projection: #3-4 SP on a contender
Glass-Half Empty: Closer/Setup A with his two power pitches

6. Boston Stranglers- Boomer Conroy - SP
Boston grabbed soft-tossing HS SP Boomer Conroy who has shown the ability to go deep into games, use his plus-plus 4-seamer to set up his above average secondary offerings. He is control projects to be outstanding control but he isn't a flamethrower and despite his advanced approach to hitter at his age, he isn't going to get a ton better at missing bats. He wowed Boston scouts with his attitude during his injury-marred junior year and his work ethic is unquestioned.
Perfect World Projection: #2-3 SP
Glass-Half Empty- Back of the rotation innings eater

7. Texas Black Lightning - Chad Pride - SP
Another quality HS arm, Pride is a paradox in that he can pitch every 3 days but has trouble going longer than 5 innings. He is a 4 pitch pitcher who mixes his 2-seamer (that has been clocked at 97-99), slider, and change-up well and a cutter that he would be better off forgetting. Scouts feel his approach to hitters is his best upside and should make up for his lack of an ML level out pitch.
Perfect World Projection- Front of the rotation SP
Glass-Half Empty- With his stamina-durable he could be a dominant reliever

8. Portland Killer Whales- Vic Pena - SP
Pena is arguably the top HS pitcher in the draft as he has no glaring holes in his game. He misses plenty of bats despite below average velocity with his excellent array of pitches, which features his plus-plus splitter and slider and an above average curve. All this with great control and the ability to finish a game. The only knock to his game is that he might have trouble going every four days, but with a controlled pitch count he should be fine.
Perfect World Projection: Frontline 1-2 Starter
Glass-Half Empty: He is a long way from his prime, but still should be a solid rotation piece.

9. Cleveland Kosars- Boots Gonzales - SP
Gonzales projects to have top notch control with his excellent plus-plus changeup with no discernible platoon split. He is a hard thrower but his fastball is straight and flat and his sinker is just a slower version of that. He has a long way to go before he becomes an ML pitcher so there is some question about whether he can reach his upside. His medical history shows no red flags and avoiding any bumps in the road Gonzales should be a very good pitcher. Gonzales will go as far as his approach will take him.
Perfect World Projection- #2-3 starter
Glass Half-Empty- Back of the rotation innings eater

10. Trenton Titans- Harold Aspromonte - RP
The first non-starting pitcher taken is the shutdown closer from Mineral Area College. Aspromonte is nearly ML ready now, as he projects to be nearly unhittable by RH batters and capable enough against LH to be a competent closer. His change is a plus-plus pitch and his slider is no slouch either. He doesn't walk many people and keep the ball in the park. There were some questions about his elbow, but nothing that can't be managed by keeping a careful eye on his workload.
Perfect World Projection: Shutdown closer with 40+ save potential
Glass Half-Empty: A 70+ inning Setup up man

11. Tacoma ChickenDance- Rene Richardson - SP
Richardson is the first pitcher taken that actually has some flaws in his game. Don't get me wrong, Richardson has excellent velocity and great command of his stuff, but he lacks a true out pitch and his secondary stuff is pretty average. He can get knocked around by lefties and has some fatigue issues, but overall he is a solid pitcher and has the potential to be a successful starter especially if he stick around to pitch in Tacoma.
Perfect World Projection: Mid-rotation starter
Glass Half-Empty: Pitches don't develop and he is just a reliever

12. Pittsburgh Wannabes- Anthony Jordan - 1B
Due to the plethora of pitching available, perhaps the top bat in the draft fell all the way out of the top 10. Jordan has quick hands, solid plate discipline, and generates good raw power for his body type. He absolutely destroys LHP and will likely do fine against RHP. Pittsburgh has no lack of COF/1B types but Jordan was the top impact bat and likely too good to pass up. He isn't athletic enough to play the outfield but his bat is good enough to be an NL firstbasemen.
Perfect World Projection: .900+ OPS and occasional all-star
Glass Half-Empty: He is going to hit, but his glove belongs at DH

13. New York Godfathers- Curt Ramirez - 2B
Ramirez is a switch hitting HS prospect who does slightly better from the left side. He has an excellent swing, with little motion and quick hands which allows him to make a lot of contact. He needs to work on pitch recognition. While he played 2B in high school he will likely have to make a move to the outfield with LF as his likely destination where his bat isn't as impressive. He tendency of being injury-prone and a lackadaisical attitude make for a troubling combination, but the gamble could pay off.
Perfect World Projection: High OBP, 25-30 HR LF
Glass Half Empty: Injuries and women limit him to being a 4th outfielder

14. Omaha Settlers- Jeff Ausmus - SP
Ausmus measures up well with the best of the draft class but he just doesn't have the raw stuff that really fools batters. His fastball is pretty average as an out pitch and none of his other pitches look to be more than average. What he lacks in command of his pitches he makes up for with smooth mechanics with little stress in his delivery. That coupled with his excellent conditioning mean a large volume of innings he can provide. The thing going for Ausmus is that he really knows how to pitch and is quite advanced for his age.
Perfect World Projection: a quality 250+ innings starter
Glass Half-Empty- He is stuff doesn't evolve and he is just a back of the rotation innings eater

15. Hartford Submarines - Jeremi Rivera - 2B
Its a wonder how Rivera lasted this long but Hartford has to be pleased that he dropped so far. He has a great approach at the plate and good pitch recognition. His swing is compact and allows him to hit for decent power while not sacrificing his strike zone discipline. On D he gets to a lot of groundballs but has a lot of work to do on his glove work. Some think he is good enough to stick in CF where he would be ideal since he lacks the arm strength to really be a great 2B.
Perfect World Projection: All-star caliber CF/2B
Glass Half-Empty: He fails to develop a position and requires a move to LF where his bat doesn't play as well.

Team x Team Draft Review : Tampa Bay Pirates

Part 1 of 32 series reviewing the entire season 14 amatuer draft.

Tampa Bay Pirates (NL) presidentdan View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Picks:

Rd1P1 - Glen Brett
Rd2P59 - Hugh Moran
Rd3P93 - Pep Nomo
Rd4P126 - Don Young
Rd5P158 - Bill Reilly
Rd6P190 - Welington Gomez
Rd7P222 - Davey Scott
Rd8P254 - Luis Mendoza
Rd9P286 -
Rd10P318 - Wil Sutton
Rd11P350 - Phillip Henderson
Rd12P382
Rd13P414 - Stevie Hill
Rd14P446
Rd15P478 - Darrell Stynes
Rd16P510 - Darwin Reid
Rd17P541 - Hector Cortez
Rd18P574
Rd19P606
Rd20P638
Rd21P670
Rd22P702 - Miguel Rios
Rd23P734
Rd24P766
Rd25P798

Best Tools:

Best Contact Hitter - Don Young
Best Power Hitter - Bill reilly
Best Plate Discipline (EYE) - Wellington Gomez
Best Vs L - Don Young
Best Vs R - Bill Reilly
Best Base Stealer - Luis Mendoza
Best Defender - Hugh Moran

Best Control - Glen Brett
Workhorse - Glen Brett
Best Vs L - Glen Brett
Vest Vs R - Glen Brett
Throws Hardest - Glen Brett
Best GBFB - Glen Brett
Best Pitch - Glen Brett
Best Pitches - Glen Brett

Does that guy have a visa?

This addition of "Does that guy have a visa?" Will be a quick overview of just a few signings.

Alving Lee Omaha Settlers Age: 20 B/T: R/R Born: Las Matas Cotui, DO Position(s): P (SP3) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The highly sought after 19 year old SP Alving Lee out of Las Matas Cotui, Dominican Republic signed for a whopping 23.7 milllion dollars by the Omaha Settlers. Lee projects to be a stud with excellent contorl, and splits, often dominating the right hander hitters. Lee throws very hard and is slightly a ground ball pitcher. Lee features 1 plus pitch and 3 good pitchers. Look for Lee to be in the majors in 3-4 seasons.

Verdict: Good signing

Pedro Ontiveros Vancouver Mounties Age: 22 B/T: R/R Born: Chorrera, PA Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Pedro Ontiveros a 22 year old closer signed for 15 million dollars out of Chorrea, Panama. Ontiveros came to the Vancouver Mounties veyr ML ready and instanly took over one of the top SU roles. Ontiveros projects to have excellent control, and spklits. Like Lee he often dominates righties. He throws wicked hard, and induces ground balls regularly. In his pitching arsenal is 1 plus plus pitch and 1 plus pitch. Look for Ontiveros to take over the closers role by as early as next season.

Verdict : Good Signing