Friday, January 31, 2014

Almost Unbiased Hall of Fame Breakdown



Greetings Plumpertons.  As you know, life is miserable right now.  The icy chill of the polar vortex pierces us to our souls, which are already wanting and empty by the lack of professional baseball and football.  And of course, nothing extinguishes the last vestiges of warmth within us like the existential nightmare that is coach hiring. Plagued by these decidedly first world problems, the last thing anyone wants to do spend time researching HOF candidates.  After all, examining and discussing Hall of Fame worthiness is a tired, often frustrating exercise.  However, since we devote an absurd amount of our lives to these fake players, we may as well create a fake Hall of Fame worthy of those we adulate.  Hopefully, one man's almost-unbiased overview of the most eligible candidates will provide a little background and at least ensure maximum voter turnout.

For background purposes, to be eligible for any HBD HOF, players must meet the following requirements: Position players: 10+ years of ML experience with 400+ PA per season; Relief pitchers; 10+ years of ML experience with 50+ IP per season; Starting pitchers: 10+ years of ML experience with 150+ IP per season.  As far as I can tell, players do not have a maximum numbers of years eligible as in MLB.

Just because I was curious, I looked up how our HBD Hall of Fame compares to the MLB Hall of Fame by position distribution:

Count of Hall of Fame Members by Position
Numerical Order
Position
Number of Inductees
Rank
Pitchers
70
1
Center Fielders
25
2
Shortstops
24
3
First Basemen
21
4
Left Fielders
21

Right Fielders
21

Second Basemen
18
7
Catchers
16
8
Third Basemen
14
9
Designated Hitters
1
10
Position
Number of Inductees
Rank
Hall of Fame Positional Frequency

HBD Hall of Fame by position (as determined by me):
1B – 5; COF – 4; SP – 7; 2B – 2; 3B – 3; CF – 1; C – 2

At least three caveats apply here.  One, HBD positions are more fluid than MLB positions, since the ratings are all that dictates fielding ability (experience at a position doesn’t matter).  Two, the MLB Hall features many inductees appointed by a Veterans Committee and formerly a Negro Leagues Committee, which muddles the comparison to the strict merits-based voting of HBD.  Finally, our HBD Hall obviously reflects a tiny sample.  

With those in mind, the only clear trend (based on ZERO mathematical analysis) I see is that Plumpy voters are more likely to vote for power-hitting 1B/COF than MLB voters, and less likely to vote for players at defensive skill positions like CF and SS.  This may be due to the lingering effects of the season 1-14 steroid era (see Todd Ford – a 1st ballot HOFer without the juice, but season 10 gives you an example of easy HRs came during the golden age of Plumpy), the relative ease of hitting HRs in HBD compared to MLB, or the dead defense era (check out the + play stats until about season 14).  In any case, I would argue Plumpy voters should pay a little more attention to value provided at tough defensive positions, and a little less attention to traditional MLB HOF statistical benchmarks like 400 HR.  

Okay let’s actually look at the players and stop this pseudo-intellectual babbling.  I have narrowed the candidate pool down to only players I think could arguably be included in this year’s top 5:

PANTHEON NO-DOUBTERS



Einar Pena – SP

Key Stats:  325-128 W/L, 3.00 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3724/1348 K/BB
Bling:  FIVE GOLDEN CY YOUUUNNGGSS!
Best Season:  23-1, 2.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, all in San Juan’s slugger’s paradise.  Lost second to last start of the season 1-0 or would have been undefeated.
Argument: Um, he’s the best pitcher Plumpy’s ever seen?  

SECOND BALLOTERS

Andrew Fox – CF

Key Stats:  .277/.351/.574, 533 HR, 1246/1383 R/RBI, 227 SB
Bling:  1 lonely Gold Glove-CF, 1 AS nod, and two SS-CF…the award logic is the worst
Best Season:  .299/.378/.640, 45 HR 105/105 R/RBI
Argument:  Andrew Fox requires you to look past the surface to see how clearly he deserves to be a HOFer, although a lifetime .925 OPS and 533 HR with gold-glove defense in CENTER FIELD and base-stealing ability should be enough on its own.  But he did all this playing most of his career in the offensive wasteland that is Tacoma, a -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 black hole where enjoyable fake baseball goes to die.  He’s probably the best true CF Plumpy has ever seen.

SHOULD BE IN

Barry Bowman – CF

Key Stats:  .289/.360/.479, 383 HR, 1731/1513 R/RBI, 428 SB, 2805 H
Bling:  10 AS appearances, 8 SS (CF) and two Gold Gloves
Best Season:  .308/.376/.560, 36 HR 108/109 R/RBI, 39 SB – BANANAS for a true SS
Argument:  Like Fox, Barry Bowman’s batting resume only shines brighter when you consider the heartland dump (-1 -2 -1 -2 -2) he called home for his entire career.  This sweet-swinging lefty is one of only 8 Plumpy players to notch 1500 Runs and 1500 RBI, and guess where the other 7 are enshrined.  The career Settler also played gold-glove defense in Center, totaling 107 plus plays and only 3 minus plays for his career in CF.  Pepper in elite base-stealing ability and you’ve got a clear-cut Hall of Famer. 

Pedro Campos – SS

Key Stats:  .291/.354/.493, 311 HR, 1362/1205 R/RBI, 288 SB
Bling:  2 MVPs, 10 AS appearances, 5 SS (3Band SS) and two Gold Gloves
Best Season:  .307/.364/.593, 36 HR 112/141 R/RBI – BANANAS for a true SS
Argument:  If Campos doesn’t get in, we may as well declare positional value dead.  He is the best all-around SS Plumpy has ever seen – power, speed, patience, solid defense at SS, on-base ability, even chiseled good looks.  He’s got all the hardware: two-time MVP (one of 12 in Plumpy history, 6 of the others are already HOFers), ten-time all-star, and even won a Home Run derby.  Only real nit to pick is the power numbers are aided by a career in sunny San Juan +0 +2 +0 +2 +3, but that shouldn't stop him from being the long overdue first SS in Plumpy HOF history. 


Vic Herrera – SP

Key Stats:  275-182 W/L, 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3542/1380 K/BB
Bling:  1 Cy Young, 6 AS appearances
Best Season:  21-8, 2.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 203/76 K/BB
Argument:  3rd on the Plumpy all-time Wins leaderboard, more than any current HOFer.  Classic great for 20 years over elite for 12 example, the Bert Blyleven of Plumpy.  4000 innings of clear No. 1 starter level pitching, incredibly durable.  Better career than some of the SPs already inducted.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Rich King – 1B/LF

Key Stats:  .293/.370/.533, 420 HR, 1722/1353 R/RBI, 814 SB
Bling:  10 AS appearances, 5 SS (LF and 1B)
Best Season:  .316/.395/.597, 43 HR 177/136 R/RBI, 73 SB – BONKERS for anyone
Argument:  Rich King is a terrifying offensive triple threat: he gets on base, steals bases efficiently and prolifically (top 5 all time in career steals), and can hit HRs like a man who’s much, much slower and fatter.  Ireland's best baseballer (look it up) flat-out produces runs (top 10 in career runs scored) like a night of Guiness and Bangers, or something.  However, he did most of it in Hartford, the +2 +3 +1 +4 +4 insurance runs capital of the world.  Given that discount, his offensive output remains outstanding, but below the standard set by the roided-out 1B/COFs already in the Hall.  He may well be deserving, but I don't think it's this year.

CLOSE, BUT NO CIGAR




Geoffrey McNamara - SP


Key Stats:  221-130 W/L, 3.61 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2800/1074 K/BB
Bling:  7 AS appearances
Best Season:  21-7, 2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 237/80 K/BB
Argument:  Clear-cut Ace for better part of two decades.  Eerily similar numbers to Herrera, but 1000 fewer innings logged.  Pretty darn similar resume to an SP that snuck in during the early years of the Plumpy HOF (I'm looking at you Nate Maduro).  Without Herrera's longevity, the ERA/WHIP are great but not Hall-worthy, especially with no Cy Youngs.  For me, McNamara is just about the best pitcher I'm willing to put comfortably outside the hall.  There's McNamara, a gray area, and then eternal greatness.  Not a great epitaph.

Mateo Bennett - 3B

Key Stats:  .282/.342/.487, 485 HR, 1376/1632 R/RBI, 2711 H
Bling:  Just 2 AS appearances, 1 Gold Glove, Rookie of the Year
Best Season:  .293/.366/.550, 37 HR 84/109 R/RBI
Argument: Hitting 485 bombs and playing gold glove caliber defense at 3B is a very good start - could even play a subpar SS for a couple years at his peak.  This switch-hitter was a stalwart in the middle of the lineup and at a skill defensive position for 15 solid seasons, playing 162 games 5 times.  However, due to defensive interchangeability in Plumpy, 3Bs aren't as tough to find as in the MLB.  But the clincher is that Bennett only OPSed over .900 one time.  To use a contrived, largely imperfect architecture metaphor, he was a cornerstone but never the keystone.

Miguel Rojas - RP

Key Stats:  552 Saves, 72-89 W/L, 3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 710/341 K/BB
Bling:  9 AS appearances, 3 Fireman of the Year
Best Season:  40/45 SV/SVOpp, 5-4, 2.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 51/18 K/BB
Argument:  Most Saves in Plumpy history, by a lot - 100 more than the no. 3 closer, 38 more than 2nd place.  Great longevity, solid ERA and WHIP compared to HOF SPs, but a much worse ERA and WHIP than other elite relievers like Pascual Fernandez and Doug Caruso.  In fact, among HOF-eligible RPs, Rojas's ERA ranks a pedestrian 12th, despite playing his whole career in HR-depressing San Fran (+1 0 +3 -3 -3).  Pitched less than 1000 innings for his career, or 3.5 seasons for Vic Herrera.  Personally, I don't think he's close, but those who appreciate closers would disagree.

HONORABLE MENTIONS







Steve Myatt, Rafael Henriquez, Julius Moreno:  If you're looking for a 1B/COF with a career OPS of .874-.887, 470-575 HR, and 1200-1500 R/RBI, you've got enough choices here to convince me that none of them is a special enough snowflake for our fake Hall of Fame.

Philip Gardner: Your .415 lifetime OBP makes me so, so moist, but it isn't enough on its own.

Jim Maxwell, Rico Rosa:  James, your roid-era-free .886 OPS at 2B is outstanding, at LF not quite enough.  Rico, your elite 2B defense and crazy pop for a skill position are amazing, but not so amazing considering you played exclusively during peresteroidka...SOVIET DOPING PUN.

Aaron Hinske: You have a 4.00+ ERA.  Kindly leave.

Lots of Steroid-era players who didn't play very long:  Tough cannolis.

So there you have it.  1000 words on RETIRED fake ballplayers when I could have just gone on world chat and posted Pena/Fox/Campos/Bowman/Herrera.  Let's Get out the Vote.  






  

 

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

LCS Preview

Finally, you guys. It’s finally here. After thirty-two fake teams, one hundred and sixty-two fake games, twenty fake trades, twelve fake playoff teams, and two decisive fake game 5s, we’ve finally weeded out the real losers to get our four fake clubs vying for a real chance to play for the fake championship. And just as (in)significantly, we’re also finally down to few enough teams that you can no longer tell our Dear Leader you don’t have the free time to write up some goofy playoff narratives. Hurray!

ALCS:

#5 San Juan Elephant Seals vs. #2 Omaha Settlers

 

San Juan (100-62)

After winning the Season 28 Championship, San Juan began their title defense in fantastic form, winning 13 of their first 18 games in Spring Training. Unfortunately, in a season of fake games, Spring Training is the fakest, and San Juan must have spent too much time staring at the trophy rumored to decorate his homepage, as the defending champs started the real fake season 15-21.

However, proving once again you can have an impact even if you suck too much to make the playoffs, the Elephant Seals righted the ship against the pitiful Ottawa Eh’s, jump-starting their season with seven consecutive wins and 14 of their next 18. Propelled by stellar hitting and stellarly-average pitching, San Juan enthusiastically sleepwalked the rest of the way to second place in the AL South, the first Wild Card spot, and the second-best record in the AL.

The E-Seals started the playoffs with a vicious hay-maker, literally punching Shigetoshi Jang to death in a 22-5 victory over Chicago. The Fatties tied it at 1-1, but the death of Jang was too much to overcome, as the series culminated in San Juan dominating Jang’s reanimated corpse in Game 4, 10-3. With that, San Juan rode their offense into a matchup with loveable Durham.

Unfortunately for davecallahan, bcpbcp7 is still unaware there was an owner change after S27, as his hate for Memphis/Durham still burns with the fire of a thousand simulated suns. Despite losing the season series 2-8, the defending champs quickly dispatched the Dirt Dogs in a three game set, proving yet again that there can be only one Highlander.


Omaha Settlers (100-62)

After a fantastic S28 regular season culminated in a disappointing 3-game exit from the playoffs, Omaha literally missed only one beat this season, de-improving their record from 101-61 in S28 to 100-62 in S29. A bold strategy. In contrast to San Juan, Omaha seemed to recognize that the start of the regular season counted, sprinting out to an 18-7 record in a tough division.

After a bit of a lull (in which Omaha went 4-3 against San Juan), they followed up the Amateur Draft by winning 17 of 20, a feat so astonishing I had to make sure I wasn’t looking at the Low A schedule. It turns out I was, but Omaha’s Major League squad actually topped that by winning 13 straight, and 23 of 28 overall. Good golly.

After edging out Oakland once again for the AL West title and a first round bye, the Settlers settled the score (nice) with his rival, mattwithanh, adding an interesting real life chapter for the two old war buddies. [Commissioner’s note: I don’t think this is true…]

Players to watch: Bret Moore already has 6 HRs and a .516 OBP after hitting 10 HRs in last season’s playoffs, while Matty Wilfredo has a 1.371 OPS from the SS position.

NLCS:

#2 Scranton Boll Weevils vs. #1 Syracuse Magma

 

Scranton Boll Weevils (94-68)

After a heart-breaking 3-2 first round loss in the S28 playoffs, Scranton owner zeustis was heard to remark (paraphrased), “Well, I’m so used to winning 100+ games that it must be time to rebuild.” And he truly made a valiant attempt, trading several aging veterans and purging contracts down to a $38M team salary in S29. But, just like the S28 first round series, his good attempt ultimately ended in pitiful, pitiful failure, resulting in the worst rebuild record of all time, 94-68 and a first round playoff bye. Disgusting.

The Boll Weevils ALMOST followed their owner’s advice, hitting a late-season rough patch that saw them lose 10 of 15, but they ultimately choked at the end, winning 5 straight against playoff contenders Charlotte and Montgomery to take back the NL East from surging Louisville and Hartford, securing a first round bye.

In Round 2 of the playoffs, Louisville almost got their revenge, taking an early 2-1 lead. But zeustis hates lasagna and loves Mondays as the Boll Weevils erased Jim Davis in a 13-2 Game 4 win, and clinched it with an exciting 3-2 victory in Game 5. As Louisville’s bus pulled out of the Scranton parking lot, celebrations could be seen inside tiny Lackawanna County Stadium: champagne popping, players laughing and hugging, and in the distance our Dear Leader could be seen urinating on a picture of Courtney Holliday.

Syracuse Magma (112-50)

If zeustis is Dear Leader, zyrion must be the T-1000. After making it to the S28 NLCS, the Magma were upset 4-2 by Montgomery. Using advanced future knowledge, like spikey tinfoil hands and an apparent cure for ALS, Syracuse responded by going on a mission this season to destroy the entire fake human race. Leading the league in team ERA and coming in third in team OPS, the Magma finished a preposterous 20 games ahead of division “rival” Chicago (who won 92 games themselves!), and enjoyed a delicious cake-walk to the #1 seed and #1 overall record.

With Montgomery having traded Roger “Schwarzenegger” Conroy during the regular season, Syracuse demonstrated in Round 2 what would have happened if Ahnold weren’t in Terminator 2, destroying the Montgomery John Connors in four games with a mixture of pitching, hitting, and James Cameron Explosions™. The win caused a tear in the space-time continuum and, more importantly, brought Syracuse back to the NLCS.

Players to watch: Scranton’s win allows for a miraculous comeback for Midre Barrios after he inexplicably left in the middle of a game to have elbow surgery, while Patrick Gehrig comes back tan and well-rested from his vacation we all call "the regular season."


Good luck to all you stupid winners!