Season 41 Draft Overview

Plumpy Season 41 Draft Analysis

Six years have passed since the Season 41 Plumpy Draft and it’s a decent time to evaluate the top 10 picks of the draft.  I’m going to borrow from Mel Kiper Jr and assign a grade for each of the picks, and one pick outside of the top 10 that I find to be spectacular.  I can’t say I have reviewed all picks so I certainly could have missed a golden one, but I feel pretty darn good about the player I’m calling out.

For the team making each selection I am showing the current franchise the player is affiliated with (due to change in owner).  In all other cases I am showing the original franchise that made the selection regardless of trades subsequent to the draft.

Pick #1

1.      Lewis Hatley, SS Kansas City Kilroy

Lewis Hatley Kansas City Kilroy Age: 25 B/T: R/R Born: Ridgway, CO Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

What a stud.  Hits like a 1B/DH but has been playing SS (I'd argue he SHOULDN'T play SS but that's another matter).  Ideally he'd be a gold glover and silver slugger at 3B.  He even has some speed - he's a true 5-tool player.  His career slash line is .292/.377/.536 and averages 30 HRs/year.


Pick #2
Devon Clark, 2B  Florida Fire Frogs

Devon Clark Florida Fire Frogs Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Elsberry, MO Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: C+

Clark was a compensatory pick for the previous season's #1 pick not signing.  With a #1 or #2 pick I’m always hoping for a Hall-of-Famer.  Clark will be a great 2B for many years but with such a high pick I would rather he have a bigger bat at 2B, play a premium position like CF or SS, or be a SP.  He will not be a Hall-of-Famer.  His slash line after 1,300 PA's is .252/.317/.420 with 16 HR's/yr and about 20-25 SBs/yr.  I'll put a positive spin on him here, though: his OPS has gone from .696 to .735 to .884.  So which one of these is he?  If he settles in as a .800 OPS 2B with a plus glove - then this grade improves considerably.  

Pick #3
Miller Cortes, SP Tacoma Trail Blazers (traded twice since then!!!)

Miller Cortes Tampa Bay Barracudas Age: 24 B/T: L/L Born: Indianapolis, IN Position(s): P (SP5) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A-

Cortes has been traded twice in his short career and now resides on the Tampa Bay Barracudas.  He's a lefty who can easily throw 200 innings/year as a #2 starter.  His career line is 1.14/3.05 (WHIP/ERA, which I will use going forward as well) but he's only struck out 122 versus 70 walks.  He doesn't overpower anyone but is very crafty and induces a lot of groundballs.  He was the rookie of the year in Season 46 by going 11-5 with a 1.05/2.22 line.  Season 47 is off to a shakier start - with a 4-6 record and 1.37/5.02 line.  I tend to think in the long term he'll live in the middle.

A quick aside about my personal beliefs of a #1 starter: I only consider there to be about 5-8 true #1 starters at any given time.  It's a guy like Julio Rijo who will absolutely deliver sub-2.50 ERA seasons every year and come through in the playoffs.  I don't see this for Cortes so he gets the "#2 SP" tag from me.  Would he be the best SP on my own team?  Absolutely!


Pick #4
Art Lee, 1B San Antonio Forgotten Alamos
Died at age 22 of a sex and cocaine overdose.  RIP Art.

Art Lee none none Age: 22 B/T: S/R Born: Little Falls, NY Position(s): 1B/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A       

In one of the saddest stories in Plumpy world history, Art Lee was drafted at #4 and was immediately busted for running a clown and furry based sex ring that spanned 18 states.  He spent 24 months in prison.  After his release he said all of the right things to management about his recovery - and it all appeared to be valid.  He ripped the cover off the ball in Seasons 43 and 44 in Low A with a .347/.435/.739 slash line and 164 HR's.  Fans were livid about him being kept back in the low minors, some even clamoring for him to get a call directly up to the big leagues.  A Sports Illustrated cover story in March of Season 45 highlighted his recovery efforts and how pleased he was to be promoted to AAA that spring with a real chance at cracking the ML roster.  However, shortly before the season began he banged himself to death while high on cocaine.  He had sex with 57 people in one night, which some call a record.  He was adamant about beating his HR number of 56 from the previous season - but it was the 57th bang that did him in.  At the time of his death he had batting ratings of 68/95/63/67/72, with a legitimate chance of bumping those another 5 or 6 points each.  He is now used as a warning to other young players about the dangers of coming into fame and success too quickly.

But seriously, this one made me sad and I was previously unaware of this situation.  It's terrible that we as a league (and especially for this franchise) lost a player with a bright future due to owner mismanagement.


Pick #5
Erv Crawford, SP Mexico City Monarchs

Erv Crawford Mexico City Monarchs Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Rainbow City, AL Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A

When I first looked at Crawford's ratings I anticipated assigning him a low grade.  Splits of 63/66 typically don't get it done in the Majors.  But on top of winning the Season 45 Rookie of the Year with a 16-4 1.04/2.89 campaign he has continued to provide solid results, posting a career line of 1.23/3.65.  He accomplishes this with a mix of 4 pitches above 64 with a 5th pitch at 54 and impeccable control.  To top it off, his velocity and GB rating are top-notch.  He's proof that a pitcher truly is the sum of all parts.  I would like to see him get closer to 250 innings/year if properly managed, and he's a solid #2 starter that will be a long-time contributor to Mexico City.  Very solid pick here.


Pick #6
Addison Mullens, SP Charlotte Hummingbirds

Addison Mullens Charlotte hummingbirds Age: 26 B/T: S/R Born: Uniondale, NY Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B+

Mullens was basically Major-league ready from the get-go - but was horribly mismanaged his first two seasons receiving zero playing time.  In fact, even though he was drafted at age 20 he only made one appearance in Low A and threw 5.2 innings and that's been the entirety of his minor league development.  This can be disastrous for a player - but he's in a decent place now.   I wonder what his ceiling originally was - because his 5 pitches are what keep him from reaching a higher tier and perhaps they never developed?  He can easily throw 275 innings/year and is a solid #3 starter with a career 1.33/4.01 line.  It's fascinating to compare him to Crawford at #5 - as Mullens' splits are 65/84 but all of his pitches are no better than 68, with two of them at 43 and 32.  I believe really low pitch ratings can be detrimental, particularly with a low-PC catcher.


Pick #7
Tomas Espinoza, RP Montreal Magma

Tomas Espinoza Montreal Magma Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Hillside, IL Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

At around pick #7 you can often be looking at a player with noticeable faults - or you can grab a stud RP like Espinoza.  While SP are certainly more valuable - a RP that can throw 100+ innings is the next best thing.  His career 1.15/3.12 mark will probably improve over time - and in the current season he's at a sparkling 0.96/2.52.  Many owners would make the mistake of slotting him as the Closer and limit him to 60 innings - but for Montreal he pitches every other game and throws an inning and a half each time out.  Would Montreal trade Espinoza for #6 pick Mullens?  If no - then this pick looks better.  Considering Espinoza is 2 years younger and is a rarer breed - my guess is the answer is indeed "no".


Pick #8
George Bermudez, RP Florida Fire Frogs

George Bermudez Florida Fire Frogs Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Oconto Falls, WI Position(s): P (ClA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B+

There's similar logic here as mentioned above - if you can't hit the top position player or SP you start to look towards those RP gems.  Bermudez is very similar to Espinoza with the primary difference being lower splits but higher pitch ratings.  In an interesting case study, his career numbers of 1.35/3.98 are not in the same league as Espinoza - and in a glaring case of mismanagement (note these are my opinions for entertainment purposes only) - he has thrown only 149.1 innings versus 398.1 of Espinoza.  "But Schnoogens!" you might say, "Bermudez has 131 saves versus only 54 saves for Espinoza!".  Take those saves and shove 'em.  This opinion applies to real baseball too: I think saves are a stupid stat - as useless as wins.  Bermudez is leaving so many innings on the table that I might try to trade for him immediately while he's undervalued.  All harshness aside, this continued the run of solid picks in an overall very well-executed draft.


Pick #9
Mac Pavlov, CF/2B Buffalo Lake Effect

Mac Pavlov Buffalo Lake Effect Age: 24 B/T: S/R Born: Gurnee, IL Position(s): CF/CIF/2B/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B+

Pavlov has been an inconsistent but very useful player at CF and 2B with a line of .272/.336/.428 (he should stick to 2B though unless it's an emergency in CF).  The fact that we're about to compare him to the #2 overall pick Devon Clark is good news for Buffalo.  Clark as you'll remember has a career line of .252/.317/.420 - and don't get me wrong, Clark is a better player and SHOULD hit better in the long run.  But career-to-date - Pavlov edges him out.  The batting ratings for a solid 2B typically aren't very exciting.  You get the high contact, low power, decent eye, maybe a little speed - and the OPS of the very best 2B who doesn't crap the bed on defense sits around .750.  Sometimes you can even forget these guys are on your team.  But having someone solid to plug in for 10 years is not bad, and that's what Pavlov delivers.


Pick #10
Willie Gabriel - 3B Toledo Scots

Willie Gabriel Toledo Scots Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Gladewater, TX Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B

I can't quite compare Gabriel to fellow 3B and #1 pick Hatley - there's too wide of a gap.  Gabriel's career line of .254/.321/.427 is a little underwhelming, and recall that Hatley is at .293/.377/.538.  This shows why a top 5 pick is so valuable - there is a real dropoff in what talent is available as you fade towards the double digits.  Gabriel has already made 39 plus plays in his career, mostly at 3B (where he should be playing) and LF (where he is wasted).  Sometimes 3B is a tough spot to fill or defensive sacrifices are made.  Gabriel has an ok bat - I think he can put up some better numbers in the future - and he can be plugged in for 10 years as the solution.  Solid pick to round out a draft that seemed to have more overall talent and was more expertly chosen than in season 40.   


Honorable Mention Picks

I'm not able to click on every single player to find the "best" pick outside of the top 10, but I do try to find an outlier that will provide unexpected value for where they were selected.  This season I found two noteworthy picks - and while I'm certain I missed others, these two are pretty darn good.

Round 1 Pick #17
Larry Miller SP Ottawa Eh's

Larry Miller Ottawa Eh's Age: 24 B/T: R/R Born: Armonk, NY Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Miller features splits of 59/74 and his top 3 pitches are 80, 81, and 73.  Career line of 1.17/3.50.  A top 5 talent at pick 17 is a great find.

Round 3 Pick #136
Davey Rijo, C Pittsburgh Wannabees

Davey Rijo Pittsburgh Wannabes Age: 25 B/T: S/R Born: Snyder, NY Position(s): C/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Helped by a DITR designation, Rijo will be a career backup C and defensive replacement - with his Durability of 40 the only thing holding him back from being a career starter behind the plate.  He will allow Pittsburgh to have a big bat or another low-Durability Catcher to be on the roster - like let's say

Al Gonzales Pittsburgh Wannabes Age: 32 B/T: R/R Born: Gardner, MA Position(s): C View Hardball Dynasty Profile

and keep both of their Stamina high enough as the season rolls along.  Getting anyone in the 3rd round to stick on a ML roster is a feat.

Round 16 Pick #555
Gail Dixon, 1B Syracuse Wiffleballers

Gail Dixon Syracuse Wiffleballers Age: 24 B/T: S/R Born: Oakland Park, FL Position(s): 1B/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

In full disclosure, I wrote about the previous two honorable mentions before remembering I had a gem of my own in this draft: Gail Dixon!  Even though he has a girl's name, Dixon is my starting 1B with a slash line of .255/.317/.436 and I expect that to improve over time.  I really don't know how he fell to the 16th round - his low health of 52 is obviously a factor, but I'm guessing he is one of those random players the game has been inserting lately as a surprise.  His batting ratings of 77/79/76/66/73 are top 15 pick material.  Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Todd Ford: A Biography, Part One

Although I am new here in Plumpy, the recent discussion of Todd Ford's career coupled with an idea I had for a different blog post has given me the chance to combine the two (and tangentially touch on a third as well.) The other idea for a blog post that I recently had was to figure out the market value of a Win Above Replacement in Hardball Dynasty. I think I stumbled upon a bit of information that will really help me nail this down a bit. Before I go into too much detail about my formula, I want to test it out and see how accurate it really is because it would be unfortunate to shout inaccurate information from the rooftops.

In broad strokes, though, I have ways to calculate projected WAR and WAR from previous seasons of Hardball. What I don’t know is whether Hardball owners like to reward past performance or future potential more when giving out contracts (I have a guess about this too, but the trick is figuring out how to quantify it.) In Ford's case, I'll use the previous seasons method to determine a career WAR mark. Next, I will take that career WAR and apply my current estimate for dollars per win to get an estimate of the amount of money Todd deserved to make in his career. Lastly, I can compare that to the amount of money he actually made...in this case, that would be mostly for giggles although a similar process can be applied for other purposes to current players.

When it comes to the "GOAT of GOAT" discussions, I typically rely on the Hall of Fame Monitor Scores (which is the metric I referenced in my HOF post earlier this season.) Using this metric, determining the "best player ever" is fairly straightforward: it's the guy with the highest score across any world that I've seen. I have used this metric to evaluate at least a handful of players in the following worlds:

• Plumpy

• Steinbrenner

• Draft Tournament World (now defunct & folded into Brave New World as part of a merge)

• Johnny5Bench

• Champions

• Diamond Kings

• FYC

Listed in the same order as the worlds above, here are the GOATS (or at least, the highest score that I have on record for each.)

• Plumpy (before doing the math on Todd Ford) : Julio Rijo, 461 points

• Steinbrenner: Jeff Mills, 149 points

• Draft Tournament World: Kyle Stynes, 357.5 points

• Johnny5Bench: Lewis Standridge, 245 points

• Champions: Vin Aquino, 283.5 points

• Diamond Kings: Dummy Spooneybarger, 240 points (STILL ACTIVE)

The next post in this series will focus on his HOF Monitor Score (and what contributed to the total), followed by a post detailing his career WAR and salary season-by-season (including how much he deserved to make.)  

On a different note, I should have a couple more "Tacoma Trail Blazers: A Diary" posts coming up soon so keep an eye out for those as well!

S47 Hall of Fame Candidates

A while back, I discovered Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor metric and also discovered at the same time that all of the math involved is fairly straightforward. The hard part about the HOF Monitor is the amount of data needed and therefore keeping track of a player’s score….luckily for us, there are computer programs designed to do exactly that! Well, kinda anyway. There are spreadsheet programs, which you can then set up to track things like the HOF-worthiness of computer generated baseball players, so that’s what I did.

Since setting up said spreadsheet, I have used it to guide my HOF ballot each season and for a number of other blog posts as well. These efforts haven’t yielded as many elections as I would have hoped in other worlds, but I do still feel that they provide a fair assessment of a player’s career overall. That being said, there are a number of categories that I would have liked to have seen included in the HOFM Score that weren’t. My solution to this problem was to add those categories into the spreadsheet and calculate what I refer to as the “unofficial HOF Monitor Score” for each player.

My hope is that here in Plumpy, with a highly active group of owners, we can use this data and level of participation to clear a backlog of deserving candidates for the virtual Hall of Fame. As I mentioned before, it takes a bit to calculate each player’s HOFM Score so I have started with just the players that have come up so far in World Chat as possibly being worthy of a vote this season (plus a few others) and broken them down into categories with fun names based on the overview of the metric provided on BaseballReference.com. Without further ado, here is a look at the S47 Hall candidates through the eyes of Bill James:

***NOTE: The scores listed below are the "official" HOF Monitor Scores, but they appear in order of the "unofficial" scores, so if they're slightly out of numerical order that's why.

***NOTE #2: I will try to keep this list updated to include everyone who comes up on World Chat, but if I have already missed someone or do so in the future please let me know and I'll add them ASAP. Here's to a large S47 Class!

 The “I Should Have Been In Years Ago” Club (130+ HOFM points)

• Julio Rijo-SP, 399 points
• Lariel Cubillan-3B, 254.5 points
• Jason Bigbie-RF, 186 points
• Felipe Lopez-DH, 171.5 points
• Desi Pena-RF, 141.5 points

 The “I’ll Get In Eventually” Club (100-129 HOFM points)

• Nigel Yount, 105 points

             The “I Might Get In” Club (70-99 points)

• Ed Smith-RF, 75 points

 The “Praying For A Miracle” Club (40-69 HOFM points)

• Ugueth Padilla, 61.5 points

  The “Field of {Pipe} Dreams” Club (39 and below)

• Placido Gutierrez, 21 points

Hardball Dynasty Budgeting - One Newbie's Perspective

How does that one owner always seem to have $30M in payroll to prospects for a $30M signing of a future Hall of Fame IFA? Budget planning. How does that division rival (you know the one) always have payroll to trade for a stud player with a bloated contract? Budget planning. How does that other owner always seem to draft an all star with the 25th pick? Budget planning.


Of course there is nuance to each of those scenarios. Who do you trade for? Where are you ranking certain draft prospects? What kind of IFA do you max out your bid for? But each of those requires a foundational budget decision first.

My take on HBD is budgeting IS the game. There are countless aspects to HBD but nearly everything strategic depends on a thoughtful budget decision. For first-time players, budget setting comes immediately and without any context. First timers likely end up making uninformed decisions they would like to take back. I know I did.

When a season starts, I look at my coaches first. Who's staying? What middling BC wants to be promoted to ML and paid $1.7M? Do I need a FI? If you're thoughtful with coaches, you might be able to effectively extract an extra million or two to allocate elsewhere.

I then look over departing free agents. Who will I want to re-sign? Who will I want to let go for a comp pick? What prospects do I have coming up? Do I have high priority for the R5 draft that might get me a workable ML piece?

Next, I review my arbitration cases. I likely already know if I want to hang onto a particular player. Does some mediocre AAAA guy want $5M? Odds are good I release him. Depending on the market, I could try re-signing him as a FA at a discount if I'm patient enough.

With a good concept of where I want my coaching to be and what I will NEED for my payroll, I start looking over the budget.

In the previous season, I've left myself notes on the budget page. Those notes are where I previously thought my budget should be for the coming season. It's not always accurate, but it's a good north star to use as a starting point. And critical to have when real life gets in the way of deeper-dive preparations when a world rolls.

When I approach my budget, I start with aspirational numbers and work backward. Ideally, I want my Medical and my Training both at $20M. If I'm not there, I am moving my budget numbers in that direction. We could talk about the why, but that's a different conversation for a different day.

With Advance Scouting, I am conservative. I'm aware many vets have Advance at $0M. I'm not ready for that, so I typically leave myself a lifeline of $10M. If I think I won't be making any trades for a player under 27, I could go lower. But I tried that once and learned I can't be trusted not to make trades.

What can I say? I like to make trades.

Next, time to think about draft scouting. I'm still pathfinding for optimal settings but am inclined toward the all-in-one camp. I want High School or College at $20M. Depending on other investments I want to make, I might have the other as low as $0M. It's a tough call, as one crop of prospects could be better than the other. Veterans in the forums suggest $20M in one is the way to go, and I'm inclined to take the advice of those more experienced than I am.

Life continues.

Ideally, I have a pretty spot-on idea of what I want to do with coaches from the earlier recon. That should be an easy set and likely doesn't fluctuate a great deal.

Now, we're to Prospect and International. Do I have a low-enough payroll to play in the IFA market? To get a franchise-changing IFA, you've got to be able to transfer payroll to prospects. If I think I'm legitimately going for it in the international market, I've got to have $20M in prospects. And my International scouting needs to be high. I've never managed to swing a $20M investment there, but that would be ideal.

If I'm not in that market, Prospect investment depends on where I am drafting and if I have a ton of compensatory picks. You can get away with $10M in prospect even with a comp pick or two if you set your draft conservatively, but I typically have more allocated just in case.

At that point, I look to see where Payroll is and compare it with my previous season's projection and what I learned from looking at my team's free agents and arbitration cases.

Do I have enough to do what I want to do? If I am speculating that other teams might be rebuilding and wanting to dump salaries, do I have the Payroll to take on contracts? If I plan to transfer to Prospect to sign a stud IFA, do I have enough Payroll to make that work? If I think I want to sign a number of free agents, will the money be there in Payroll for me to be competitive with the players I want to get?

If the answer to those questions is no, time to tweak. Can I make draft scouting work with $18M? Sure. Do I sometimes fudge Training/Medical to $19M? You bet.

At that point, I put some new notes in where I think I want my budget to be next season and hit Save.

And BLAZZOW! Budget!

Tacoma Trail Blazers: A Diary

First things first: Hello Plumpertons! I know a good number of you from other worlds and am excited to get to know the rest of you :) As I mentioned a couple of days ago in the World Chat, "I've...run a blog segment in a couple of my other worlds where I annotate the notes made by csherwood in his WKRP thread as it applies to the team that I'm currently managing."

You can see a couple of those notes in the forum thread titled "WKRP Makes A New Hire", but I will be posting my notes on the Trail Blazers on the blog throughout the year. Ideally, I'd love to see a few of us produce similar commentary prompted by csherwood's initial thoughts in the spirit of covering each franchise as a beat writer for the Plumpy Times...but for now I'll take the wheel.

If you are unfamiliar with WKRP, the first installment each season was a Player Evaluation of his ML roster, and the second installment covered his plans for the upcoming season's budget. Since I will be, for lack of a better phrase, "live-tweeting" this season in Tacoma I am going to refrain from publishing my Player Evaluation post until next year when the insights are slightly less relevant. Therefore, what follows is my annotation of his second post on the budget. Enjoy, and let me (or someone else with blog access) know if you want to contribute to this effort going forward.

Sincerely, bruinsfan911

Here's the good stuff, with his original content in black and my commentary on how it applies to Tacoma in orange:

STEP 2 -- BUDGET

Setting your budget for the season is probably the most important offseason event. If you don't budget correctly, you can end up with excessive injuries (if training or medical are too low), no progression of your minor leaguers (if coaching is too low), or not enough money to land that player you need (if budget is too low). With the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps, money is incredibly tight. I start the season with 99.2M committed to player payroll already and that is before any free agents have been signed. I also noticed that my minor leagues are pretty barren of players and odds are I will need to sign 10 or more minor leaguers just to fill my rosters. I have the extra problem of about half a dozen minor leaguers starting the season on the disabled list, in all likelihood due to the prior owner not budgeting properly for training and medical.

Since the update, you have the choice of returning to the default budget settings or keeping the old owner’s budget preferences. I will choose whichever option gets me closest to my ideal budget for a rebuilding team...generally, that’s the previous owner’s budgets but there are cases where my philosophy is clearly different enough from the previous owner that defaults are easier.

Because I do not intend to go after any high priced free agents, and I intend to move as much salary as I can via trades, I decide to spend no more than 105 million on player payroll. This gives me only a small cushion for minor league free agents and promotions, but if I am lucky I can free some more cap space during the season. I would normally likely more cap room for waiver wire claims on a rebuild project, but the money just isn't there for it.

My approach to Player Payroll is to simply use what’s leftover from manipulating everything else to where I need it to be. After all, if everything else is exactly what I want then Player Payroll will be too. In subsequent seasons, I’ll manipulate the Player Payroll from where it ends up to where I want it to be in an ideal rebuild scenario. Here in Tacoma, I can get to almost every ideal spending level using the default budgets. If I were to use the previous season’s budget,  I could get to the ideal spending level in the same number of categories, but I'd be farther from the goal than if I went with the defaults, so I choose the default options.

Next, I look at scouting. 14 million for advanced scouting. I always spend this amount with all my teams. I also invest 14 in both high school and college scouting -- I have the #2 overall draft pick and need as much in these categories as I can get. Internationals will go as low as I can set it, to 6. See the prior post for my reasoning there.

Before the most recent update, Advanced Scouting had become a little outdated since there was a reliable formula to project player development. However, since the update and the implementation of the fuzzy ratings, the need for advanced scouting has made a comeback. Therefore, I follow his advice and put $14M in advanced scouting. This year in Tacoma, I have the #3 overall pick so I will also follow his advice and invest $14M in both HS and College Scouting.

Training and Medical are up next. Because I don't expect to contend this season, I am willing to drop Medical down to 8 million (I normally like 11 or 12). Training, on the other hand, helps keep veterans from declining. With all the age on my problem, I need more money here. I would normally go with 14 million here with a veteran team, but due to my budget problems, I set it at 11.

For a rebuild project like this one, my ideal budget includes $12M medical and $14M training (since that also helps with developing young guys.) Both of those are achievable from the defaults so I set those and move on.

67 million down and still coaches and prospect payroll to set. I would like at least 13 million for coaches but that would leave me with no money at all for prospects if I set my player payroll at 105. I need to trim a few more corners to get some prospect payroll money. I therefore cut coaches down to 10 and hope I can find some guys from lower levels to promote up to the major league jobs and get them at lower salaries. I also cut my player budget down to 102 (only 3 million cushion now!) and set prospect payroll at 6.

My ideal total for coaches during a rebuild is $13M while I shoot $14M in the prospect category. Like Training and Medical, I set these and move on. As of right now, the only two categories that are not at my ideal level: the player payroll and the IFA spending.

Luckily for me, the IFA is $10M too high and player payroll is $10M too low so over the next couple years I can just take from the IFA budget and add it to the payroll. In the meantime, I’ll see if I can get lucky and stumble across a steal on the IFA market.

Now the big question is how I can go so cheap on prospect payroll. I agree that it is a gamble. However, I will set my entire draft to Very Conservative to help keep the dollars down. Also, as I hopefully unload my veterans, I should free up some player payroll. What I don't need to sign free agents and make promotion to set my rosters, I figure I can transfer to prospect payroll if I need it. It is still a huge gamble, especially with the risk of not having enough money for my #2 overall draft pick, but it is my only chance to keep the categories that cannot be modified through transfers where I need them to be.

As I mentioned above, my prospect payroll is exactly where I want it, so this doesn’t apply to my situation. However, these are helpful insights in terms of how to solve that kind of issue in the future should I come across it at some point.

TEAM OPTIONS

You can check on "options" status before doing your budget and take that into account. You do have to have enough in the player budget to cover all existing salaries, including the option salaries you intend to decline. But you can decline the options before resigning any of your free agents or doing arbitration. This potentially allows you to cut the player budget right to the necessary minimum knowing you can generate some cash by declining the options after the budget is finalized.

The Trail Blazers do not have any players that have any options this season, so this is also a moot point.

                                                                    ****
The next entry will focus on the Re-Sign Free Agents and Arbitration day activities. Csherwood normally published this with his Player Evaluation post, but since I'm holding off on that putting those items second seems most logical. Stay Tuned and good luck to all this season!

Season 40 Draft Review - 5 Years Later

Plumpy Season 40 Draft Analysis

 Five years have passed since the Season 40 Plumpy Draft and it’s a decent time to evaluate the top 10 picks of the draft. I’m going to borrow from Mel Kiper Jr and assign a grade for each of the picks, and one pick outside of the top 10 that I find to be spectacular. I can’t say I have reviewed all picks so I certainly could have missed a golden one, but I feel pretty darn good about the player I’m calling out. For the team making each selection I am showing the current franchise the player is affiliated with (due to change in owner). As an example, the first pick Ozzie Woods was selected by Houston, which is now Florida. In all other cases I am showing the original franchise that made the selection regardless of trades subsequent to the draft.

1. Ozzie Woods, SS Florida Fire Frogs 

Grade: B-

Woods never signed and we can’t see his ratings, but this turned into the #2 pick in the Season 41 draft which was Devon Clark, 2B. 

Devon Clark Florida Fire Frogs Age: 22 B/T: R/R Born: Elsberry, MO Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

With a #1 or #2 pick I’m always hoping for a Hall-of-Famer. Clark will be a great 2B for many years but with such a high pick I would rather he have a bigger bat at 2B, play a premium position like CF or SS, or be a SP. He will not be a Hall-of-Famer.

2. Victor DeRojas, LF Kansas City Kilroy 

Victor DeRojas Kansas City Kilroy Age: 27 B/T: R/R Born: Maynard, MA Position(s): LF/1B/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B+

Career Slash Line: .269/.332/.513

DeRojas can mash, with HR totals of 40 and 46 in two full seasons and another 30 2/3 of the way through season 45. I tend to believe his season 45 is an outlier with lower output and that he will in general have an OPS closer to .900 most seasons. He is held back by his low splits and lack of speed. He plays plus defense in LF and was a solid but not spectacular pick.

3. Seth Lewis, 3B Mexico City Monarchs 

Seth Lewis Mexico City Monarchs Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Lovington, NM Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: C

Career Slash Line: .276/.327/.393

 Lewis is a plus defender at 3B but carries a mediocre bat and will eventually be asking for a very costly contract with an 85 overall rating mostly driven by Durability, Health, and Makeup. He smacked 37 doubles in Season 44 but has totaled 26 HR’s in essentially two full seasons combined, which is not enough power to be considered a top-end 3B.

4. Nipsey Henley, 3B Salt Lake City Revival 

Nipsey Henley Salt Lake City Revival Age: 27 B/T: S/R Born: Norton, KS Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: C-

Career Slash Line: .253/.325/.391

Henley was touted as a SS coming out of the draft but his defensive ratings at 82/78/87/79 make him no better than a plus defender at 3B. While his power grades out better than Lewis, his lack of splits drive his hitting value lower than a typical top-tier 3B. He finally made his ML debut this season at 27 so it’s possible his hitting turns around a bit, but when compared to a few of the next couple of picks in the draft immediately after Henley he looks to be a disappointment.

5. Ed Foster, 2B Toledo Scots  

Ed Foster Toledo Scots Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Lakeside, CA Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B

Career Slash Line: .265/.351/.410

Foster is another player who will be commanding a huge pay raise someday down the line…with an 88 overall rating propped up by high Dur, Health, Patience, and Makeup he will have high demands. He would be a potential HOF’er at 2B if his Range and Glove were 5 points higher – as it is, he’s a minus defensively at 2B but passable – and as long as he is passable, his OBP and stealing capability help provide decent value as a #5 pick. Would Toledo trade Foster to Mexico City for Lewis? I think not. 

6. Marlon DeJean, DH Buffalo Lake Effect 

Marlon DeJean Buffalo Lake Effect Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Weston, CT Position(s): DH/C/RF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A-

Career Slash Line: .265/.354/.516

DeJean is a big bopper, clubbing 58 HR’s in parts of two seasons and will likely top a 1.000 OPS multiple times in his career. He’s 23 years old and will be plugged in as a DH versus RHP for the next 10 seasons in all likelihood, with the ability to play full-time DH in the playoffs. He likely was shown as a Catcher in the draft but his ratings are too low to be anything but an emergency backup. This pick was very good, however I find it hard to believe you would take a DH bat, no matter how big, over a #1/#2 starter – and at this point in the draft not a single pitcher had been taken!

7. Eugenio James, SP Montreal Magma 

Eugenio James Montreal Magma Age: 27 B/T: S/R Born: Prairie Du Sac, WI Position(s): P (T3B) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Pitching Line: 38-23, 1.18/3.75

The first pitcher finally goes off the board…and he’s a winner. With 80 Stam and 31 Dur, James can likely pitch close to 250 innings every season and will be a factor in the Magma rotation for a long time to come. His splits don’t blow anyone away, his secondary pitches are average, however his Control/Velocity/GB rating are all great to elite. He is not as overwhelming as many pitchers I have seen go in the top 3 of different drafts, but to grab the best pitcher in the draft at #7 was a great play. 

8. Glenn Ennis, SP Kansas City Kilroy (Drafted by San Antonio Forgotten Alamos) 

Glenn Ennis Kansas City Kilroy Age: 26 B/T: R/R Born: Wilburton, OK Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B-

Career Pitching Line: 36-40, 1.50/5.35

Despite these rough numbers early in his career, this is a decent pick. He’ll be able to throw nearly 275 innings each season with 99 Stam and 29 Dur – however, he is certainly underperforming and I expect a bit better from him in future seasons. It provides an interesting case study in what difference a few points make on some key pitching ratings. When comparing Ennis to James in the following categories, Ennis is +/- (better/worse) as follows (Control, Vs L, vs R, Vel, GB, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5): (11), 0, 3, (14), (7), (8), 0, (23), (2), (14). I think the 8-point difference in P1 especially when compared with the combined lower ratings of P2-P5 of 39 points tell us most of the story. Hmmm…I’m considering moving this grade down a bit…47 points lower in pitching ratings is a LOT!

 In a sad turn of events for the San Antonio franchise, Ennis was traded in season 42 for one year of Sherman Snow

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7132080

Snow was 19-7 with a 1.16/2.62 line but left as a free agent and did not lead the team to the playoffs. 

9. Julius Kinney, SP Tampa Bay Barracudas 

Julius Kinney Tampa Bay Barracudas Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Rossford, OH Position(s): P (SP3) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A

Career Pitching Line: 3-2, 1.39/5.11 (only 44 IP)

This was a great pick at #9 – he’s a solid #2 starter and is still showing improvement in his ratings. This is normally what you would find as a top-5 pick – while he’s off to a little bit of a rough start in his first season of pro play, he has excellent control, velocity, and P1/P2 (Sinker/Slider). A quick note on the term “#2 starter”: like a few other analysts out there, I believe there are really only a handful, no more than 8 or so, true “#1 starters”. Kenney can very well top out a rotation but won’t be the guy you fear facing 3 times in a 7 game series – but he’s going to be a very solid SP for a long time.

10. Fergie Cooke, CF Chicago FrozenKoreans 

Fergie Cooke Chicago FrozenKoreans Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Bloomer, WI Position(s): CF/3B/MIF/OF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Slash Line: .307/.373/.503 44/54 SB’s

Cooke is off to a monster start in the Majors – playing plus defense at CF and is on his way to several Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. His glove hasn’t developed enough to play at SS but he could play there in a pinch. Cooke is proof of why split ratings matter so much – when combined with a 80 eye rating, it doesn’t matter that his contact is only 48 – he gets on base often, and when he does he steals at a 81% success rate. This was an excellent pick and a real steal at #10.

Schnoogens’ Pick of the Draft 

This last draft result is my favorite post-10 pick – someone grabbing value or a particular set of skills a little bit further in the draft.

Pick #19: Daniel Brumfield, C/DH Tampa Bay Barracudas 

Daniel Brumfield Tampa Bay Barracudas Age: 27 B/T: R/R Born: Harrison, OH Position(s): C/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Slash Line: .332/.426/.628 with 43 HR

I LOVE these kinds of players. They are hard to find, and when you get one on your team it’s a kind of player you never forget. Brumfield’s core 5 hitting ratings are 93/99/96/79/81 – which is HOF-worthy on any player and some of the best totals I have ever seen. However, Brumfield will almost definitely NOT make it into the HOF…but why? He likely won’t accumulate the accolades and large totals that HOF voters look for because his Dur rating is a measly 30 – which limits him to about 250 AB’s per season. This is also likely the reason he fell to pick #19 – he’s not an every day player and his value would be completely hampered in the NL (only useful as a PH). In the AL he can DH/C in the regular season against LHP and then be a full-time player in the playoffs when fatigue is not a concern. He is going to put impressive numbers for years to come.

In glancing at just these 11 picks I highlighted, one conclusion I have drawn is that Tampa Bay “won” the draft in season 40. They grabbed A-rated SP Kinney with pick #9 and then A+ rated C/DH Brumfield at #19. Owner Seventy_77 must be consistently drafting well – as he has taken his team from being mismanaged for seven seasons before his arrival to now being a consistent playoff contender.

Thanks for reading!