Thursday, August 22, 2019

Season 49 Awards Voting

Much like I have for the past couple of seasons, I am going to provide the WAR totals for each of the nominees in the various award categories along with a little bit of commentary explaining who I voted for and why. Thanks also to Brian (raidersfan91sc) for the assist in putting the data together...without further ado, your S49 Awards Races:

AL MVP

  • Del Kondou (3B-Salem), 8.29 WAR
  • Donn Oliver (1B-Texas), 9.72 WAR
  • Tsuyoshi Lo (1B-Buffalo), 8.45 WAR
  • Lenn Posey (DH-New York), 7.83 WAR
  • Luther Stowers (LF-New York), 8.34 WAR
I can totally understand the support Kondou has been getting on the World Chat...putting up 8+ WAR in your age 33 season is certainly impressive...but I have to go with Oliver who is more than a full win clear of any of the other four and who contributed nearly 2 full WAR of defense this season. 

NL MVP
  • Christopher Perry (2B-Montgomery), 6.47 WAR
  • Cesar Cairo (3B-Jacksonville), 8.57 WAR
  • Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 7.47 WAR
  • Valerio Suarez (2B-Anaheim), 5.42 WAR
  • Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.17 WAR
This is another fairly easy choice, with the WAR leader being over a full win ahead of the next guy. I was a little bit surprised (and a bit disappointed) to see Suarez's name on this list, though, since I let him walk before the year started and then struggled to find a replacement...here's hoping that I hit on the picks I got for him. 

AL Cy Young
  • Adam Maybin (SP-Syracuse), 4.53 WAR
  • Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.69 WAR
  • Orber Guerrero (SP-Atlanta), 3.71 WAR
  • Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Atlanta), 4.48 WAR
  • Maicer Silva (SP-Tacoma), 2.97 WAR
Even though I've got a horse in this race, I won't be voting for him...this is a two horse race between Maybin and Sosa. I'm giving the edge to Maybin since he hasn't had as much help as Sosa did (evidenced by the fact that Sosa's teammate is also nominated.)

NL Cy Young
  • Juan Escuela (SP-Toronto), 2.92 WAR
  • Nigel Maybin (SP-Jacksonville), 3.88 WAR
  • Shelby Jorgensen (SP-Tampa Bay), 2.39 WAR
  • Clarence Roache (SP-Louisville), 2.91 WAR
  • Yasiel Arias (SP-Montgomery), 3.96 WAR
These WAR totals all include hitting ability, or lack thereof, so if you're thinking they they seem a little low that's probably why. The good thing is that they're all more or less equally bad at the plate so for the purposes of comparison the above totals will do just fine. 

AL Rookie of the Year
  • Dixon Gibson (SP-Helena), 2.56 WAR
  • Tim Burks (1B-Nashville), 3.07 WAR
  • Orlando Rienzo (1B-Ottawa), 5.24 WAR
  • Roger Diamond (RF-Tacoma), 2.12 WAR
  • Derrin Plunk (DH-Chicago), 2.51 WAR
Once again, I find myself voting for someone other than my guy simply because the leading candidate is so far out in front of the field. Rienzo's season ended up being more than 2 wins better than any of the other four candidates who finished the season on the ballot. This is just about as easy as they come in terms of voting decisions. 

NL Rookie of the Year
  • York Bonds (LF-Scranton), 6.17 WAR
  • Kendry Osuna (SP-Scranton), 3.94 WAR
  • Mac Zhang (LF-Toronto), 5.77 WAR
  • Julian Kelly (2B-Charlotte), 4.87 WAR
  • Sean Leathersich (LF-Montgomery), 5.52 WAR 
Right now I'm guessing that Zhang and Leathersich are both wishing they were AL players since they clearly had better rookie years than any of the AL nominees and yet will likely come up short in the NL. That's because York Bonds put up a WAR total that is superior to Suarez's total that got him nominated for the NL MVP. 

Monday, August 5, 2019

ESPN Ratings: A "Game Score" for Hitters

Each season, some of the best individual performances are recorded and highlighted by the WIS engine...but they get erased at the end of the year so I figured this would be a good place to keep a longer term record of those. Also, I have recently determined a way in which we can figure out once and for all who had the best individual performance of the season. Keeping records here also allows us to make cross-season references (starting in Season 49, since that's when this idea occurred to me.)

To evaluate each hitting performance, I am going to use a slightly modified version of the "ESPN Rating" which is essentially a Game Score for hitters that ESPN came up with. It is traditionally scored in the following manner:
  • Baseline score of 59
  • +1 point per hit
  • +1 point per run scored
  • +0.25 points per walk
  • +1 point for each Total Base
  • +0.25 points per steal
  • -0.25 points per caught stealing attempt
  • +0.25 points per Sac Fly
  • +0.25 points per Sac Hit 
  • +1 point per RBI
  • -0.25 points per strikeout
  • -0.25 point per non-productive out
This doesn't account for defense whatsoever, and in my humble opinion having a great game in the field on top of a great day at the plate is what really identifies the best of the best. At the same time, having a great day at the plate can be somewhat dampened by a miscue or two in the field. To that end, I've decided to add a defensive portion to the ESPN rating, which will consist of the following categories and point values: 
  • +0.25 points per putout
  • +0.25 points per infield assist
  • +0.50 points per outfield assist
  • -1 point per error
  • -0.25 points per passed ball
  • +0.25 points per runner caught stealing (by catcher)
  • +1 point per "plus" play
  • -1 point per "minus" play
For pitchers, I'm going to use Bill James' Game Score, which is calculated using the following criteria:
  • Baseline score of 50
  • +1 point per out recorded
  • +2 points per inning pitched after the 4th 
  • +1 point per strikeout
  • -2 points per hit allowed
  • -4 points per earned run allowed
  • -2 points per unearned run allowed
  • -1 point per walk allowed
Looking at this season's Noteworthy Games, all but one are hitting performances through the first 121 games of the regular season. Here's a quick breakdown of each of them (for reference, the best score-batting only-in MLB so far this season is 86.5 by Josh Bell in his 3 HR game on July 1st):

Stretch Kramer drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: no contributions = 81 overall total
Dickie Moore drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 79 batting total 
  • In the field: 6 putouts, 1 assist, 1 runner caught stealing = +2 fielding points = 81 overall total 
Nipsey Henley drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 5-for-6, 2 R, 2B, HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: no contributions = 81 overall total
Trevor Tatis drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 2-for-3, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, Sac Fly = 77.25 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts & 4 assists = +1.75 fielding points = 80 overall total
Al Gonzales drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 4-for-6, R, HR, 7 RBI = 76 batting total
  • In the field: 7 putouts = +1.75 fielding points = 77.75 overall total
Osvaldo Lee drives in 8 runs 
  • At the plate: 5-for-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI = 86 batting total
  • In the field: 7 putouts = +1.75 fielding points = 87.75 overall total 
Pedro Villafuerte drives in 8 runs
  • At the plate: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 8 RBI, BB = 75.25 batting total
  • In the field: 9 putouts = +2.25 fielding points = 77.5 overall total
Danny Hatfield drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, BB, K = 79 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts = +0.75 fielding points = 79.75 overall total
Christopher Perry drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 4-for-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts, 4 assists = +1.5 fielding points = 82.5 overall total
Evan Todd Hits For Cycle
  • At the plate: 4-for-6, 2 R, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, K = 75.75 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts = +0.75 fielding points = 76.5 overall total
York Bonds drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts = +0.50 fielding points = 81.5 overall total

Victor DeRojas drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 7 RBI, HBP = 74.25 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts, 1 error = -0.50 fielding points = 73.75 overall total
Justin Whitman drives in 8 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-5, R, HR, 8 RBI, Sac Fly = 76.25 batting total 
  • In the field: 1 putout = +0.25 fielding points = 76.5 overall total