Season 62 HOF Voting

 For (I think) the third year in a row, I have forgotten to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. As a result, I will be using career-high vote totals to guide my voting and blog post this season rather than last year's results. Similar to the last few seasons, though, I will be using position-by-position standards to compare the candidates I take a look at to their peers to see how they stack up on a HOF scale. 

This year's first five candidates that I will look at are: Esmailyn Johnson (13 votes in S60), Donn Oliver (12 votes in S58), Darnell Curtis (12 votes in S56), Odalis Marmol (11 votes in S59) and Geraldo Terrero (9 votes in S57.) If any of them don't make the cut, there are a number of first-year guys who I will go back and evaluate. But first we need to start with the five from above, so here's how they stack up: 

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Left Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 31 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 30 or fewer Estimated WAR

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Slam Dunk HOFer: 61 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 41 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 21 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 1 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: Less than 1 Estimated WAR

Darnell Curtis: 44 Estimated WAR = Definite HOFer

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR 

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR 

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case 

Yasiel Arias: 190 Estimated WAR = Slam Dunk HOFer

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 106 or fewer Estimated WAR

Pep Wanatabe: 85 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Since I make it a policy to vote for anyone in the top three categories, the five guys above will account for four of my votes. I will be passing on Terrero, even though I'm fairly sure I am the one who nominated him at some point a few seasons ago. As I mentioned above, my next move is to look at the first-year ballot guys: Denny Burriss, Rafael Torrez, Pep Wanatabe, Victor Olmedo, Julian Matos and Yasiel Arias. First up will be the pitchers, not only because their scores are faster to calculate but also because my guess is that Wanatabe and Arias have the best chance to be elected on the first go around. 

Arias actually has the best HOF case out of anyone that I've evaluated so far, Wanatabe had a solid career but the HOF numbers don't match up. As of now, my ballot will be Curtis, Johnson, Marmol, Oliver and Arias.  

 

 

Season 61 Hall of Fame Voting

 Just like last year, we are not quite at a point where I can factor in the data I began saving a few seasons ago with league leaders and real life was busy enough that I forgot to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. Oops. So, just like last year, I will use position-by-position Career WAR standards to determine how much of an argument each of the candidates has and then proceed from there. Using this process got Nigel Maybin inducted last season so hopefully it will get a few more deserving candidates over the line this time around. To start with I'll look at Odalis Marmol, Esmailyn Johnson and Miguel Tapies all of whom have previously received 10 HOF votes:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 106 Estimated WAR or Fewer

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Second Base

Slam Dunk HOFer = 113+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Right Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 44 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case 

Based on that information, I'll be voting for Johnson and Marmol and looking to the rest of the ballot to fill up to three slots. The next group of players I will be looking at are players in the first year of eligibility (which you can tell by looking at the "extras" in the HOF Voting screen and looking for guys whose "high vote" season is this year.) This season there are two hitters who fall into that category: Danny Carter (LF) and Reid Blume (RF).  Using the standards seen above, Blume falls well short and Carter's case needs a bit of digging to make:

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 92+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 72 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 52 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 32 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 31 or fewer Estimated WAR

Danny Carter: 26 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

As it turns out, Carter has no case for Virtual Cooperstown either, so I've still only used two of my five votes. This seems like a good season to give one of my votes to Tapies, who technically falls into the "No HOF Case" category but the bar at RP is currently very, very, very high due to there only being two guys at that position currently elected and his 102 Estimated WAR are the most that I've seen without getting elected and he is ahead of quite a few HOFers in that category. 

Since I am running low on time before voting closes and may or may not have enough free time to do any more WAR calculations, I take a quick look at the "extras" screen to see if anyone pops out at me as being potentially worthy of a vote in a somewhat down year...Lewis Hatley (3B) and his World Series Ring/MVP combo grab my attention on the hitter's side while Donne Giavotella and his 3 Cy Young Awards also pop out at me. Those two will get my final votes for now, and if I have the chance to crunch more numbers before voting closes my focus will be on them. 

Season 60 Hall of Fame Voting

 I still don't think we are quite at the point where people who were playing in the seasons where I have league leader data (Season 56-now) have retired yet, so the main metric I will be using is still Total Career WAR. However, I do have position-by-position data to compare each player with their closest peers in terms of HOF worthiness. Since I seem to have forgotten to take a screenshot of the top vote totals from last season, I am going to use the High Vote Total as a guide. The top five in that category are: Guillermo Gutierrez (16 votes in S54), Nigel Maybin (14 votes in S58), Miguel Tapies (11 votes in S55), Osvaldo Lee (8 votes in S54) and Geraldo Terrero/Roy Owen (5 votes in S57/S55 respectively.) 

Gutierrez is going to be considered a 1B for HOF purposes, Maybin is a SP, Tapies an RP, Lee also a 1B, Terrero is a starter and Roy Owen is a reliever. There have also been a few other names that have popped up in World Chat, so I'll evaluate them as well. They are: Odalis Marmol (RF), Esmailyn Johnson (2B), Chip Kinsler (3B) and Donne Giavotella (SP). Here's how they all stack up against HOF'ers at their individual positions:

First Basemen

Guillermo Gutierrez: 48 Park Adjusted Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Osvaldo Lee: 29 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Greg Forest

Starting Pitchers

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Donne Giavotella: 58 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Turner: 38 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Alan Henry: 19 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Gerald Grieve

Louie Sanchez

Relief Pitchers

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Roy Owen: 71 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Al Cabrera: 50 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Harold Aspromonte

Right Fielders

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Ramiro Guerrero: 21 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Second Basemen

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Cristhian Milner 

Christopher Perry

Third Basemen

Chip Kinsler: 55 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Darnell Curtis: 43 Estimated Career WAR = Definite HOF'er

Left Fielders

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Victor DeRojas: 28 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case at all

Otis Gold: 18 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF case at all

Adam Matthews

Shortstop

Eduardo Quintana 

Season 59 Awards Voting

 The annual Awards Voting blog post will once again utilize position and park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals, and I will also look into how several honorable mentions performed out of a matter of curiosity. I know I keep mentioning that I want to do a blog post on Career WAR, but I think that might be a little ways a way still. The good news is that I do have Estimated Career WAR totals for almost all of the HOF members, and then I'll start at the top of that list and work my way down when figuring out adjusted Career WAR totals. For now, we will continue to go season by season, starting with this year as seen below: 

AL Most Valuable Player

• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 8.63 WAR
• Maicer Rosales (1B-Nashville), 6.59 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.76 WAR
• Howie Cornelius (1B-Buffalo), 5.47 WAR
• Marco Moss (1B-Milwaukee), 5.67 WAR

NL Most Valuable Player

• Pep Komatsu (LF-Pittsburgh), 6.185 WAR
• Joey Hurst (3B-Baltimore), 4.14 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-Houston), 6.188 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 4.46 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 3.73 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.51 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.94 WAR
• Quentin Strickland (SP-Montreal), 3.69 WAR
• Luigi Almanzar (SP-Montreal), 4.63 WAR
• Harry Beltre (SP-Montreal), 5.47 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Scranton), 5.30 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 4.16 WAR
• Peter Brow (SP-St. Louis), 4.67 WAR
• David Rooney (SP-Houston), 3.90 WAR
• Juan Escuela (SP-Little Rock), 3.58 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 5.29 WAR
• Billy Linden (DH-Nashville), 2.02 WAR
• Derek Malone (RP-Salem), 0.98 WAR
• Cooper Posey (1B-Madison), 1.21 WAR
• Brennan Gil (LF-Madison), 0.72 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Benj Matthewson (2B-Tampa Bay), 5.94 WAR
• Trace Marquis (1B-Philadelphia), 1.05 WAR
• Gerald Meng (SP-Baltimore), -0.06 WAR
• Mateo Iglesias (1B-Tampa Bay), 2.86 WAR
• Asdrubal Lopez (2B-Houston), 4.81 WAR

Since I've finished the Awards Voting portion of this year's blog, here's a quick look at the top five players in WAR/year that I have on record so far (minimum 2 seasons worth of data):

1) Henderson Jackson, 9.0 WAR/year with 7 seasons of data missing

2) Luther Stowers, 7.5 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing 

3) Randy Pose, 6.9 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

4)Chick Prades, 6.3 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

5)Antonio Frandsen, 6.2 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

Season 59 Hall of Fame Voting

 At this point, I now have three seasons worth of League Leaders data saved for reference. However, none of the candidates who are currently on the ballot were playing when I started collecting that data so I am going to continue to use the combination of the previous season's ballot and the WAR-only standards to evaluate the current class on their HOF-worthiness. As a reminder, here are the results from last year's voting:

With Roosevelt and Cruz now in, the top five who missed out last year are Miguel Tapies (2 votes short), Nigel Maybin (3 votes short), Cesar Cairo (8 votes short), Guillermo Gutierrez (9 votes short) and Osvaldo Lee (9 votes short.) During the season last year I took some time to look a little more closely at the Hall of Fame here in Plumpy, and have figured out position-by-position standards rather than the general ones that I have been using for awhile now. Let's take a look at those five guys to see how they stack up compared to their positional peers:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all*

Julio Manuel: 55 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 149 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 129 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 109 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 89 Estimated WAR

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

David Giavotella: 58 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Turner: 41 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Brandon Peters: 147 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Third Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 76 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 56 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 36 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 16 Estimated WAR

Cesar Cairo: 59 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

First Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 73 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 33 Estimated WAR

Osvaldo Lee = 28 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case At All

Guillermo Gutierrez = 56 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case

Darnell Curtis, 43 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Donn Oliver, 52 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 31 Estimated WAR

Otis Gold: 18 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Victor DeRojas: 28 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Center Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 99 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 79 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 59 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 39 Estimated WAR

James Moore: 64 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case 

My policy has been to vote for anyone in the "Strong HOF Case" category or better whenever possible. Based on these lists, the following guys would get my vote using those criteria: Guillermo Gutierrez &  Cesar Cairo. However, the only reason that Miguel Tapies has "No HOF case at all" is because the only two relievers in the Hall are 6th and 13th on the All-Time list of Estimated WAR so I'm going to vote for Tapies as well and have two votes left to play with. 

The next two guys on the list from last season are Geraldo Terrero & David Giavotella, both of whom are starting pitchers. Neither of them have a HOF case using the standards above, so I move onto the next two guys on the list: Kordell Rivers (SP) & Darnell Curtis (1B.)  Rivers comes up completely short, while Curtis makes a weak case for election so I am going to move onto the rest of the list and see if there are any better option but the door remains open a crack for Curtis. 

I continue to move down the list of last year's vote totals until I get to James Moore, who makes a Strong HOF case so he gets my fourth vote. Next up will be the math on Victor DeRojas, Kordell Turner and Brandon Peters because they are first time candidates. DeRojas and Turner have "No HOF Case at all" but Peters is just shy of falling into the Slam Dunk category for SP's and has arguably the best case of anyone on the ballot this season so he gets my last vote. 

Season 58 End of Year Awards Voting

 This is the annual look at the End of Year Awards ballot using the Wins Above Replacement metric that accounts for both the parks everyone plays in as well as their defensive positions. I'm also working on putting together a Career WAR database, although I need some more time to update that for the parks and defensive positions. For now I'll just have to settle for this season, which can be seen below:

AL MVP

• Alex Salas (DH-Cincinnati), 6.84 WAR
• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 4.84 WAR 
• DT Long (CF-Nashville), 7.45 WAR
• Diego Wilfredo (1B-Madison), 6.81 WAR

NL MVP

• Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 7.87 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 6.07 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-El Paso), 4.07 WAR
• Joey Hurst (CF-Baltimore), 4.20 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 6.45 WAR  

Honorable Mention: Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.18 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.28 WAR
• Didi Sanchez (RP-Hartford), 2.29 WAR
• Alex Bennett (RP-Nashville), 0.81 WAR
• Willis McNichol (SP-Nashville), 2.85 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 3.84 WAR

NL Cy Young 

• Chick Prades (SP-Scranton), 6.62 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Cleveland), 4.46 WAR
• Lawrence Bryant (RP-Cleveland), 2.30 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 5.14 WAR
• Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 3.15 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Marty Caminiti (RF-Syracuse), 1.17 WAR
• Rodney Kelly (SP-Kansas City), 4.57 WAR
• Henderson Jordan (1B-Buffalo), 2.47 WAR
• Vitas Coello (SP-Buffalo), 1.83 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Jim Hollandsworth (RP-Pittsburgh), 2.83 WAR
• Randall De Fratus (RF-Scranton), 2.90 WAR
• Yohan Eovaldi (RP-El Paso), 0.24 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.22 WAR
• Aroldis Rodriguez (RF-Philadelphia), 2.40 WAR