In both our sister world of Steinbrenner and my original world of FYC, I have brought up a method of evaluating trades that is impartial and essentially 100% fact-based. It has come in useful for both situations like the one we currently find ourselves in here, where there is some debate as to whether or not a trade is "fair" and also for fun blog-based activities.
The method is based mainly on draft position and is derived from Pro Football Focus's Draft Value Chart which assigns a certain number of "draft points" to specific draft slots. However, since that chart was developed for football there are a couple of adjustments that need to be made for baseball (and Hardball Dynasty in particular): International Free Agents, Diamonds In The Rough and Cash in trades. Also, for the purposes of evaluating trades on the basis of "fairness" I have come to the conclusion that anything more than a 10 point difference of value between the two sides is a deal that should be questioned if not outright vetoed.
With all that in mind, here is how this method could be applied to the trade currently up for debate on the World Chat:
To Louisville: Jared File, Pick #308 = 0 Draft Points ; Lance Williams, Pick #82 = 6.50 Draft Points
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, DITR w/value of Pick #208 = 0.7 Draft Points ; $5M = 5 Draft Points
Totals: Louisville 6.50 Draft Points ; Toronto 5.70 Draft Points...difference of 0.80 Draft Points = FAIR DEAL
****IT HAS BEEN POINTED OUT THAT THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE QUALITY OF THE PLAYER REGARDLESS OF THEIR DRAFT POSITION...TO THAT END, I RE-DID THE EVALUATION BASED ON PROJECTED WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT***
I often evaluate players based on a formula that gives me projected WAR totals for a player based on their ratings. Given the observation above, I figured I'd run the players involved through that spreadsheet to see how the two sides of the deal stack up based on the "major league quality" involved. Here's what I came up with:
To Louisville: Jared File, -2.18 WAR ; Lance Williams, 0.24 WAR = -1.94 WAR value received
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, -3.41 WAR, $5M (~1.67 WAR) = -1.74 WAR value received
Again, seems like a pretty fair deal...but I can also see the other side since File is a serviceable defensive catcher at the ML level.
Sunday, June 30, 2019
Monday, June 17, 2019
Season 49 Hall of Fame Voting
There has been some lively discussion on the World Chat regarding the Hall of Fame debate, specifically who the five most deserving candidates are. The consensus seems to be that there are more than five guys who can make a compelling HOF case, and my calculations seem to back that opinion up...but the reality is that we can only elect five at a time, so I have used the Hall of Fame Standards created by Bill James to sort the candidates into several categories. Here are the results, and if you’re curious about the process that I used, feel free to TC/Sitemail me (or look back at previous posts!):
“Better Than Babe”
- None
No Doubt, First Ballot Hall of Famers
- Myron Byrnes, 72.90 points
- Enos Leonard, 70.20 points
- Tiny Garcia, 63.00 points
Eventual Hall of Famers
- Pablo Macias, 63.90 points
- Desi Pena, 56.90 points
- Jeremi Rivera, 56.10 points
- Pinky Curtis, 53.50 points
- Stephen Collins, 53.10 points
- Giomar Estrada, 52.60 points
- Nigel Yount, 52.20 points
- Shannon Lemon, 52.10 points
- Don Webster, 50.90 points
- Don Wang, 50.50 points
- Julius Moreno, 49.80 points
- Monte Turner, 49.30 points
- Rob Russell, 49.40 points
- Fritz Walsh, 48.80 points
- Roscoe Rooney, 48.70 points
- Eric Surhoff, 48.40 points
- Alex Weeks, 48.10 points
- Guy Gorzellany, 47.80 points
- Midre Tarasco, 45.60 points
- Lyle Hines, 42.50 points
- Ringo Oliver, 25.80 points (outscored only RP in HOF)
- David Campos, 23.30 points (outscored only RP in HOF)
Longshot HOF Candidates
- Rey Maxwell, 43.50 points
- Larry Montgomery, 43.50 points
- Jair Arredondo, 42.90 points
- Mariano Infante, 41.20 points
- Rod DeJean, 40.20 points
- Tripp Uribe, 39.80 points
- Otto Dillon, 34.20 points
- Neil Koplove, 33.80 points
- Sandy Mieske, 32.60 points
- Ugueth Padilla, 30.00 points
- Kent Parrish, 29.60 points
- Howie Zimmerman, 28.20 points
- Eric Adams, 26.10 points
- Fred Sparks, 20.90 points
- Eugene Hynes, 20.70 points
- Harold Aspromonte, 20.20 points
There does seem to be a movement afoot to elect Webster, and as a newer owner I don’t feel qualified to dispute that...as a result, I will be voting for the following five candidates:
- Myron Byrnes, 72.90 points
- Enos Leonard, 70.20 points
- Tiny Garcia, 63.00 points
- Don Webster, 50.90 points
- Pablo Macias, 63.90 points
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Season 42 Draft Overview
It's been 6 full seasons since the Season 42 draft and it's time to take a look back at how teams performed. I keep falling more and more behind on these, but I'll keep cranking them out as I am able.
Pick #1 - Kory Ogea RP - Charlotte Hummingbirds (formerly Tacoma). Grade: F-
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We start with a player who looks more like a 30th pick than a 1st pick. His line of 1.69/5.84 (WHIP/ERA going forward in this article) in 121.2 ML innings is about par for the course for what you would expect. I don't know what the former owner was thinking as you simply don't take a relief pitcher with the first pick, let alone a middling one. Let's move on.
Pick #2 - Preston Workman 3B - Buffalo Lake Effect. Grade: A+
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Workman has lived up to his name, as he's been an on-the-job monster for Buffalo. He already has a World Series ring, Homerun Derby championship, Silver Slugger, and an All-Star appearance. His slash line in 1,673 AB's is .295/.355/.545 with 107 HR and 330 RBI. He's heading into his prime and features a plus glove at 3B after being moved over from SS soon after the draft (as happens with a lot of young prospects). He signed for well above slot at $6.6M as there were some signing concerns, but that gamble has paid off nicely.
Pick #3 - Brian Kozlowski - SP/RP - Salem Eclipse (traded to Salem post draft) Grade: A
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Kozlowski is a tweener - with 58 Stamina and 26 Durability it's difficult to decide if he's a starter on a short leash or a reliever who pitches every other day 1-2 innings each appearance. In his career thus far he has strictly been the latter, throwing all 381.2 innings out of the bullpen with a line of 1.25/3.56, a 31-11 record, and 25/37 on saves. If his stamina was a bit higher he'd be a #1 starter - in fact, I am surprised his core numbers aren't a little better. He certainly seems capable of 1.15/3.00.
Pick #4 - Arthur White - 2B - Tacoma Trail Blazers. Grade: C+
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I can't emphasize this enough: he's a 2B!!! His bat plays perfectly there, as does his speed. He was drafted as a CF but didn't quite get to the range/glove needed to stick there, so he's been relegated to 3B?!????!???? In 2,829 innings at 3B he has a 1 plus play and 57 minus plays! Has his bat made up for it? Nope. Slash line of .263/.358/.358 - which is decent for a 2B but terrible for a 3B who can't field. This pick at #4 was pretty good - but his treatment since then has been an F.
Pick #5 - Enrique Lee - SP - Salem Eclipse Grade: A+
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The downside here of course is his health, which is 45. That wouldn't have stopped me from taking him here as I've had 99 injury rating guys get their careers derailed (in fact this happened last season to my team!!!). Lee has made two all-star teams and was the rookie of the year. Great start to a promising career and we can hope he stays healthy.
Pick #6 - Santiago Motherfuckin' Rivera - CF/2B/LF - Toledo Scots Grade: A+
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I didn't pre-scout this draft before I started typing these up - and holy shit this draft is loaded! I originally graded the first pick Ogea an "F" and I have now gone back up and changed it to an F-minus. I'd have to go back into my previous writings to see how many A+ ratings I've given out, but it can't be many. There are three in the top 6 picks here!
Rivera was drafted as a CF and has been stubbornly used there even though he would be much better at 2B or even COF. His bat, however, would play at DH it's so fucking good. 89/99/61/79/83 hitting ratings have equaled a blistering .284/.362/.567 slash line in 2,000 ML ABs with 160 HR and 438 RBI.
Back to the defense topic: Rivera has a .951 fielding percentage and +/- of 0/9 and a range factor of 2.31. When compared to a real CF like Syracuse's Chul Hasegawa, who has a .985 fielding percentage, +/- of 32/1, and a range factor of 2.57 - there are a lot more runs being given up by playing Rivera in CF.
Pick #7 - Keith Mahomes - LF - Atlanta Alligator Men Grade: F
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Mahomes never signed and looked pretty crappy anyways. It looks like he was never even offered his demands, so the team didn't even get a comp pick the next season. Whoops. These mistakes can haunt franchises and this is a big reason why it can be difficult to turnaround a team that's been on the junk heap for many seasons.
Pick #8 - Marc Banks - SP - Nashville Catfish Hurlers Grade: D
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Yikes - this is the danger of having 4 pitches and three of them stink (I can relate as a poor wiffleball pitcher myself). His best quality in his career will be as an innings eater with high Stam and Dur. He has a 1.41/5.50 slash line and that looks about right. Decent player to trade for if you're doing a mini tank.
Pick #9 - Bud Greene - CF - El Paso Eephus Grade: F
I can't even link this guy - it doesn't seem his demands were met, so no compensation pick here either. This is a draft with high highs and low lows. Yikes.
Pick #10 - Quentin Winn - SP - Anaheim Avengers Grade: B+
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I really like this guy here at pick 10. Solid starter, can't throw a ton of innings (about 130-150) but a career line of 1.37/4.05 used half as a starter and half in relief and he'll be around for awhile. I would start him in the playoffs as my 4th guy - maybe even 3rd.
Best pick outside the Top 10 in my quick search: Pick #66 - Tom Hardy - SS Scranton Boll Weevils
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If you ever wonder why Zeustis is successful in this game, look at this pick. He found his starting shortstop at pick #66 - and he has a career line of .225/.280/.376 with some pop - 20 HR last season! This is while playing sterling defense with +/- of 46/1 and .977 fielding %. Nice grab here.
Thanks for reading!