As I mentioned in the World Chat, we dropped the ball a bit last season and didn't elect anyone to the Hall of Fame here in Plumpy. I take quite a bit of responsibility for that as I had stuff going on in real life and it was Year 1 of my Commissionership here so I personally dropped the ball and also wasn't able to get a blog post up on the subject. I've seen a great response in terms of activity since I made a public plea on the World Chat for HOF voting, so I just wanted to take a minute to highlight the players whose names have come up and if I have time I'll move onto the other typical categories that I look at (players closest to election previously and first-year candidates.) 

Quick reminder that the metric I have found most useful is one that I call "Importance Score," which combines WAR/year and awards (personal accomplishments) with World Series Rings (team accomplishments) to give a good, holistic picture of a player's career. Anyone who reaches double digits on the Importance Score scale is worthy of eventually getting into the HOF...I have a suspicion that we will have more than five of those guys, so we should prioritize the ones who have been on the ballot for awhile and/or have the highest scores. Let's see where things stand: 

Guys Who Have Been Mentioned in World Chat

• Antonio Frandsen- 13.7 Importance Score (and there are a couple of seasons of data missing) 
• Alex Salas* - not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Randy Pose* - 12.7 Importance Score (and there are several seasons of data missing) 
• Quinton Strickland* - 3.3 Importance Score (with a bunch of seasons of data missing)
• Julius Kaufman* -12.8 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Chick Prades - 21.0 Importance Score (with several seasons of data missing) 
• Gorkys Garces* - 7.2 Importance Score (with a bunch of seasons of data missing) 
• York Bonds- 8.8 Importance Score (with several seasons of data missing) 
• Kiki Zurbaran- 4.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

Guys Who Have Come Closest To Election Previously

• The five names above that have asterisks* next to their names

First Year Candidates

• Frandsen (see above)
• Tomas Cairo - 3.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Quilvio Noesi - 3.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Everett Stewart - 6.5 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

The Rest of the Ballot

• Renato Alvarado-no data yet
• Denny Burriss-no data yet
• Jose Cedeno- 7.4 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing) 
• Marlon DeJean-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet 
• Dixie Goforth-no data yet
• Julio Gonzalez- 8.6 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing)
• Henderson Jackson-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Jeremy Kershaw-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Shane Porter-no data yet
• Chuck Richardson-no data yet
• Orlando Rienzo- 3.7 Importance Score (a few seasons missing) 
• Maicer Rosales-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Ronn Shannon-no data yet
• Miguel Silva-no data yet 
• Noel Strop-no data yet
• Rafael Torrez-no data yet
• Mac Zheng-no data yet 
• Luigi Almanzar- 4.2 Importance Score (several seasons missing) 
• George Bermudez- 5.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Edward Coomer - 9.5 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing) 
• Bruce Cosart- 12.7 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Freddie Daly- 1.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Sammy Delgado- 0.4 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Santos Espinosa- 2.1 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Enrique Lee- 8.7 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Julian Matos- 6.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Adam Maybin- 8.0 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Riccio Oliva- 8.4 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Victor Olmedo- 7.9 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Pep Wanatabe- 6.5 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

This leads me to...

Based on the research above, the following guys definitely deserve votes: 1) Frandsen 2) Pose 3) Kaufman 4) Prades. There are also a handful of guys listed above that I'm sure will deserve to be elected once I have a more complete picture, but for now I'm going to stick with those four and then dig a little deeper into the rest of them. 

As I prepared to write this post, I realized it's been just over a real-life year since anything got published....so it makes a lot of sense that the goal of this post is to sort out exactly what this league has been through in the last three seasons (aka about a real life year.) We've seen a commish change, a decent amount of league turnover, we went public for a hot minute and then returned to private...and now we're here. While I type this we are down to our final opening prior to starting Season 68 and I wanted to get the MWR question sorted out before we fill and have to deal with budgets (and any potential MWR violations that may come up.) 

Before we get to crunching the numbers, here's a quick recap of events as best I remember: Season 66 was pajammies' last in charge as commish of a private Plumpy world. I then took over as commish when we rolled into Season 67, where we started out private and then went public to fill the last few spots before reverting back to being a private league to play out Season 67. Now, here we are in Season 68 with one spot left to fill...so I feel pretty good about our ability to stay private the whole time. 

Since we never had a full public season, I feel the easiest (and most logical) approach is to apply the MWR to all previous seasons. Given that we are looking at a four-year window, that would be S64-67 for our upcoming budgeting purposes. Let's take it bullet-by-bullet to see what issues may come up:

One Year MWR: 55 Wins

• The Helena Hellas (foodew) were in violation of this, but foodew did not return so this a moot point.

Two Year MWR: 120 Wins 

• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 119 wins in S66 and S67 combined...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Three Year MWR: 185 Wins

• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 179 wins in S65-S67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Four Year MWR: 260 Wins 

• The Scranton Boll Weevils (zeustis01) talled 258 wins from S64-67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 
• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 227 wins from S64-67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Based on the data above, there are two potential courses of action we can take: 1) apply the MWR to all of the past four seasons and impose the $10M Prospect Payroll cap on zeustis and gnocc. 2) Re-Start the MWR clock from the moment we re-privatized, which would be the start of S67, and have everyone on fairly even footing going forward. 

I say fairly even footing because doing this would mean that the number of wins needed in this upcoming season would still be higher for those who won less often than others last season, thereby giving them a slightly higher hill to climb this year without directly imposing the prospect cap penalty right away. For full transparency's sake, this is the way I am leaning towards ruling at the moment. Here's a quick rundown of how many wins everyone would need this season to avoid violating the MWR: 

• Indianapolis (FW_K) = 59 Wins
• Salt Lake City (gnocc) = 59 Wins
• Scranton (zeustis) = 59 Wins
• Philadelphia (zyrion) = 57 Wins
• Everyone Else = 55 Wins 

After doing that math, I am even more inclined to make this our course of action.  I do, however, realize that I rule at the will of the people and want to be as transparent as possible in this process.  

 I recently posted in the World Chat that having the bases loaded with nobody out seems like a guarantee to end up being a negative result...and I've noticed it going both ways. So much so that every time I'm reading the box score and see the bases loaded early in the inning the words that go through my mind are ones that WIS turns into **** if I were to try to type them out 😂 

This is a trend that I've noticed for awhile and I've thought about writing a blog post about it several times but finally have the time to dig in a little as well as the prompting thanks to it happening yet again in the PM game today. Here's how I'm going to investigate the difference between MLB and Plumpy: this win expectancy finder tells us how many runs a team can expect to score in a given scenario. Apparently, bases loaded and nobody out has produced no runs scored 13.43% of the time during MLB seasons that occurred between 1903 and 2023...so now to compare my team with that tidbit I just need to scan through the box scores and see what the Trailblazers' conversion rate is. 

While reading through this season's box scores for that purpose, the first time that I remember this thought occurring to me was actually a bases loaded with one out scenario. A couple clicks of a button reveals that MLB teams fail to score in that scenario 32.83% of the time. Below is a list of the times that my Trailblazers have been in either of those scenarios so far this season on both offense and defense:

Bases Loaded, 0 Outs

• 2/19 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 1 run allowed
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 10th = 1 run scored (with 2 outs) 
• 2/23 pm2 cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 5th = 4 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though) 
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 8th = 0 runs scored

Offensive totals: Held scoreless in 4 out of 5 opportunities (80%) while MLB mark is 13.43%...probably just a small sample size but good to know I'm not totally crazy for having this theory 

Defensive Totals: Held opponents scoreless in 2 out of 4 opportunities (50%) with MLB mark of 13.43%....at least our defense is also doing better than MLB defenses 🤷‍♂️

Bases Loaded, 1 Out 

• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 4th = 4 runs scored
• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 10th = 1 run scored 
• 2/18 am cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/18 am cycle: Top 9th = 2 runs scored
• 2/18 pm cycle: Bottom 7th = 3 runs allowed
• 2/18 pm2 cycle: Bottom 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/19 pm cycle: Top 5th = 5 runs scored
• 2/20 pm2 cycle: Top 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 7th = 0 runs scored
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored
• 2/21 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/23 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 0 runs scored
• 2/23 pm cycle: Top 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/24 pm2 cycle: Top 8th = 1 run allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 3rd = 3 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored

Offensive totals: held scoreless in 4 of 10 opportunities (40%) while the MLB mark is 32.83%...this is a larger sample size than I'd expect in just over 20 games, but at least the conversion rate is fairly similar to the MLB mark 

Defensive totals: held opponents scoreless in 4 of 7 opportunities (57%) with the MLB mark being 32.83%....not sure if we have gotten lucky, have a good defense or a bit of both 🤔 

 There has already been some chatter about who should get the nod to Virtual Cooperstown on the World Chat, so I am going to factor that into my process for this season. Typically I would focus on the five guys (I think I just made myself a little hungry...) who got the highest vote totals that were still short of election. Then, I'd check to see if any first-year ballot guys are worthy of taking the place of those five. This season, those are going to be steps two and three. Step one will be to take a look at the numbers behind the careers of those players who have already generated discussion on the chat boards. That list is as follows: 

1. Jhoulys Sosa
2. Luther Stowers
3. Enny Cayones
4. Tsuyoshi Lo 
5. Juan Escuela 
6. Lewis Hatley
7. Gorkys Garces 

With more options than votes to use even just from that list, I think steps two and three should take a bit of a back seat until we see if everyone above truly is HOF worthy. To judge HOF worthiness I am going to continue using what I have termed "Importance Score" which is WAR/season with bonus points given for rings, MVP Awards and/or Cy Young awards as well as years with 4+ WAR. 

Since I started tracking that stat, it has become apparent that any score of 10+ is worthy of election to the HOF. All of that is a long way of saying I'll calculate that score for the seven guys above and see how many of them get a double digit result. Here's what I found: 

• J. Sosa = 18.9 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• L. Stowers = 23.5 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• E. Cayones = 23.6 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• T. Lo = 13.9 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• J. Escuela = 24.3 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• L. Hatley = 18.7 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• G. Garces = 9.20 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 

That data makes two things clear: I need to get some complete data to make sure those numbers hold up and also there are more than five deserving candidates on this year's ballot. Here are the five that I'm voting for right now: 

1. Juan Escuela: 24.3 Importance Score
2. Enny Cayones: 23.6 Importance Score
3. Luther Stowers: 23.5 Importance Score 
4. Jhoulys Sosa: 18.9 Importance Score
5. Lewis Hatley: 18.7 Importance Score

 I have been using some of the time that we've had due to the extended rollover to calculate Wins Above Replacement totals since the turn of the "decade" that started in Season 60. Currently I have 111 players in the database of people that I have fully calculated over the past five seasons, mostly from the Awards Ballots that I have been doing in other posts. I am going to post screenshots of my WAR spreadsheet in groups of 30 players below, and if you don't see a player that your are curious about send me a quick Trade Chat or post in the World Chat and I'll add in their data to this series later. Without further ado, here are players 1-30: 

Players 31-60: 

Players 61-90:

Players 91+:

A couple of quick housekeeping notes: 

• Players whose names are highlighted in gold are in the Hall of Fame
• The cities listed in the second to last column (last season) with asterisks have them because they are currently open franchises and I don't have access to their data until a new owner takes over
• My next step is to start looking at Career Wins Above Replacement, and I will start at the top of this list and work down 
• This is just another reminder that all totals above are both park and position adjusted

 For the first time in a couple of seasons, I am going to be able to put together a Hall of Fame blog segment 😊 Since I wasn't able to (or maybe just forgot to) take a screenshot of the top five vote-getters who were not elected last season, I will start with the top five previous totals overall (listed under the "Hi" total on the extras HOF screen.) Those five are the following: Santiago Rivera, Gorkys Garces, Julius Kaufman, Esmailyn Johnson and Tsuyoshi Lo. 

Since I have positional breakdowns of what constitutes a Hall of Fame player here in Plumpy, the first thing I check on is what position each guy qualifies for in terms of HOF candidacy (aka which position did he play most often during his career.) Rivera and Garces are both CF, Kaufman is a SP, Johnson is a 2B and Lo is a 1B. Here is how they compare to current HOF'ers at their positions: 

Center Field

Slam Dunk HOFer: 99 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 79 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 59 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 39 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 38 or fewer Estimated WAR

Santiago Rivera: Only four seasons of Park Adjusted data

Gorkys Garces: 19 Park Adjusted WAR in 6 seasons of data = 3.2 avg = No Case (for now)

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Julius Kaufman: 82 Estimated WAR = No Case

First Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 73 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 33 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 32 or fewer Estimated WAR

Tsuyoshi Lo: 34 Park Adjusted WAR in 7 seasons of data = 4.9 avg = Weak HOF case (for now)

Third Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 76 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 56 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 36 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 16 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 15 or fewer Estimated WAR

Chip Kinsler: No Data Yet

Lewis Hatley: 57 Park Adjusted WAR in 12 seasons of data = 4.7 avg = Strong HOF case (for now)

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Based on the data that I currently have (seen above), Johnson and Lo are worthy candidates and will get two of my votes. As I write this, people have already started chiming in about their votes and so my next step is to look at the other players that people are considering to see which of them are also worthy candidates. The new names that have been mentioned so far are the following: Chip Kinsler and Odalis Marmol. Kinsler is a 3B and Marmol is an RF. After making a strong HOF case, Marmol will get my third vote and I'll gather more data on those listed above who I don't have enough information on yet. 

 My goal for the past couple of seasons has been to use the "Importance Score" which uses a combination of WAR and bonus points for things like leading the league in certain categories to determine who to vote for. Unfortunately, so far I've only gotten as far as the Wins Above Replacement totals in previous seasons. This year, I've gotten the WAR totals done and have the research done for who has led the league in which categories as well so the chances that I'll be able to combine those this season are much higher. Here's what I've gotten so far...hopefully this helps with your ballot!

AL MVP

• Walt Smith (C-Salem), 8.44 WAR
• Orlando Esposito (3B-San Juan), 6.52 WAR
• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 8.26 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.62 WAR
• Marco Moss (1B-Toledo), 4.97 WAR

NL MVP

• Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.56 WAR
• Mateo Iglesias (1B-Tampa Bay), 9.50 WAR
• Abraham Wilson (RF-Tampa Bay), 8.07 WAR
• Asdrubal Lopez (LF-El Paso), 7.40 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Trenton), 7.49 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Bill Sutton (SP-Buffalo), 4.88 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 5.93 WAR
• Braulio Feliz (RP-San Juan), 1.14 WAR
• Sammy Crespo (SP-Nashville), 2.97 WAR
• Vitas Coello (SP-Buffalo), 4.83 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Mariano Pena (SP-Philadelphia), 8.05 WAR
• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Washington DC), 4.53 WAR
• Matthew Kennedy (SP-Pittsburgh), 4.98 WAR
• Howie Yarbrough (RP-Trenton), 3.18 WAR
• Gonzalez Mateo (SP-Philadelphia), 1.93 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Fritz Powell (3B-Cincinnati), 3.71 WAR
• Sammy Risley (1B-Syracuse), 2.65 WAR
• Elrond Millwood (SP-San Juan), 3.23 WAR
• Buddy Harris (RF-Tacoma), 1.94 WAR
• Corey Milton (LF-Toledo), 2.75 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Enrique Henriquez (LF-Tampa Bay), 6.42 WAR
• Al Hernandez (RF-Scranton), 3.34 WAR
• Esmerling Cervelli (3B-St. Louis), 4.14 WAR
• Tyson Lieber (RP-El Paso), -0.12 WAR
• Alex Bird (SP-Trenton), 4.02 WAR

 I have had time recently to update the "New Park Era" rankings for Wins Above Replacement (which looks at just the seasons we have played since they released new ballparks), so I've made sure to focus on the Awards winners and finalists from that span for that particular post...but that comes later. Right now, the goal is to focus on this season's award finalists to see who deserves to go home with the hardware. Here are how the various ballots stack up:

AL MVP

• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.71 WAR
• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 7.30 WAR
• Felipe Soria (RF-Salem), 6.38 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 5.03 WAR
• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 6.33 WAR

NL MVP

• Asdrubal Lopez (LF-El Paso), 8.63 WAR
• Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.83 WAR
• Abraham Wilson (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.30 WAR
• Ender Guerra (1B-Jacksonville), 6.00 WAR
• Jayson Cornelius (2B-Portland), 7.54 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Rodney Kelly (SP-Cheyenne), 7.92 WAR
• Sammy Crespo (SP-Nashville), 2.20 WAR 
• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.43 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.31 WAR
• Bill Williams (RP-San Juan), 1.64 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Mariano Pena (SP-Philadelphia), 6.02 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Washington), 4.18 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.46 WAR
• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Washington), 5.29 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 3.75 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Chief Sweeney (DH-Helena), 3.89 WAR
• Phil Lawley (RP-San Juan), 0.38 WAR
• Orlando Esposito (3B-San Juan), 3.79 WAR
• Max Cuddyer (1B-Kansas City), 2.00 WAR
• Edwar Diaz (SP-Buffalo), 2.52 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year 

• Gus Li (SP-Tampa Bay), 1.03 WAR
• Derek Nash (LF-St. Louis), 2.42 WAR
• Pedro Parraz (3B-Trenton), 2.48 WAR
• Albert Balentin (SP-San Francisco), 1.56 WAR
• Rusty Reese (1B-Scranton), -2.36 WAR

 For (I think) the third year in a row, I have forgotten to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. As a result, I will be using career-high vote totals to guide my voting and blog post this season rather than last year's results. Similar to the last few seasons, though, I will be using position-by-position standards to compare the candidates I take a look at to their peers to see how they stack up on a HOF scale. 

This year's first five candidates that I will look at are: Esmailyn Johnson (13 votes in S60), Donn Oliver (12 votes in S58), Darnell Curtis (12 votes in S56), Odalis Marmol (11 votes in S59) and Geraldo Terrero (9 votes in S57.) If any of them don't make the cut, there are a number of first-year guys who I will go back and evaluate. But first we need to start with the five from above, so here's how they stack up: 

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Left Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 31 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 30 or fewer Estimated WAR

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Slam Dunk HOFer: 61 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 41 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 21 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 1 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: Less than 1 Estimated WAR

Darnell Curtis: 44 Estimated WAR = Definite HOFer

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR 

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR 

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case 

Yasiel Arias: 190 Estimated WAR = Slam Dunk HOFer

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 106 or fewer Estimated WAR

Pep Wanatabe: 85 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Since I make it a policy to vote for anyone in the top three categories, the five guys above will account for four of my votes. I will be passing on Terrero, even though I'm fairly sure I am the one who nominated him at some point a few seasons ago. As I mentioned above, my next move is to look at the first-year ballot guys: Denny Burriss, Rafael Torrez, Pep Wanatabe, Victor Olmedo, Julian Matos and Yasiel Arias. First up will be the pitchers, not only because their scores are faster to calculate but also because my guess is that Wanatabe and Arias have the best chance to be elected on the first go around. 

Arias actually has the best HOF case out of anyone that I've evaluated so far, Wanatabe had a solid career but the HOF numbers don't match up. As of now, my ballot will be Curtis, Johnson, Marmol, Oliver and Arias.  

 

 

 Just like last year, we are not quite at a point where I can factor in the data I began saving a few seasons ago with league leaders and real life was busy enough that I forgot to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. Oops. So, just like last year, I will use position-by-position Career WAR standards to determine how much of an argument each of the candidates has and then proceed from there. Using this process got Nigel Maybin inducted last season so hopefully it will get a few more deserving candidates over the line this time around. To start with I'll look at Odalis Marmol, Esmailyn Johnson and Miguel Tapies all of whom have previously received 10 HOF votes:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 106 Estimated WAR or Fewer

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Second Base

Slam Dunk HOFer = 113+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Right Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 44 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case 

Based on that information, I'll be voting for Johnson and Marmol and looking to the rest of the ballot to fill up to three slots. The next group of players I will be looking at are players in the first year of eligibility (which you can tell by looking at the "extras" in the HOF Voting screen and looking for guys whose "high vote" season is this year.) This season there are two hitters who fall into that category: Danny Carter (LF) and Reid Blume (RF).  Using the standards seen above, Blume falls well short and Carter's case needs a bit of digging to make:

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 92+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 72 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 52 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 32 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 31 or fewer Estimated WAR

Danny Carter: 26 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

As it turns out, Carter has no case for Virtual Cooperstown either, so I've still only used two of my five votes. This seems like a good season to give one of my votes to Tapies, who technically falls into the "No HOF Case" category but the bar at RP is currently very, very, very high due to there only being two guys at that position currently elected and his 102 Estimated WAR are the most that I've seen without getting elected and he is ahead of quite a few HOFers in that category. 

Since I am running low on time before voting closes and may or may not have enough free time to do any more WAR calculations, I take a quick look at the "extras" screen to see if anyone pops out at me as being potentially worthy of a vote in a somewhat down year...Lewis Hatley (3B) and his World Series Ring/MVP combo grab my attention on the hitter's side while Donne Giavotella and his 3 Cy Young Awards also pop out at me. Those two will get my final votes for now, and if I have the chance to crunch more numbers before voting closes my focus will be on them.