I have had time recently to update the "New Park Era" rankings for Wins Above Replacement (which looks at just the seasons we have played since they released new ballparks), so I've made sure to focus on the Awards winners and finalists from that span for that particular post...but that comes later. Right now, the goal is to focus on this season's award finalists to see who deserves to go home with the hardware. Here are how the various ballots stack up:

AL MVP

• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.71 WAR
• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 7.30 WAR
• Felipe Soria (RF-Salem), 6.38 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 5.03 WAR
• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 6.33 WAR

NL MVP

• Asdrubal Lopez (LF-El Paso), 8.63 WAR
• Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.83 WAR
• Abraham Wilson (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.30 WAR
• Ender Guerra (1B-Jacksonville), 6.00 WAR
• Jayson Cornelius (2B-Portland), 7.54 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Rodney Kelly (SP-Cheyenne), 7.92 WAR
• Sammy Crespo (SP-Nashville), 2.20 WAR 
• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.43 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.31 WAR
• Bill Williams (RP-San Juan), 1.64 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Mariano Pena (SP-Philadelphia), 6.02 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Washington), 4.18 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.46 WAR
• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Washington), 5.29 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 3.75 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Chief Sweeney (DH-Helena), 3.89 WAR
• Phil Lawley (RP-San Juan), 0.38 WAR
• Orlando Esposito (3B-San Juan), 3.79 WAR
• Max Cuddyer (1B-Kansas City), 2.00 WAR
• Edwar Diaz (SP-Buffalo), 2.52 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year 

• Gus Li (SP-Tampa Bay), 1.03 WAR
• Derek Nash (LF-St. Louis), 2.42 WAR
• Pedro Parraz (3B-Trenton), 2.48 WAR
• Albert Balentin (SP-San Francisco), 1.56 WAR
• Rusty Reese (1B-Scranton), -2.36 WAR

 For (I think) the third year in a row, I have forgotten to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. As a result, I will be using career-high vote totals to guide my voting and blog post this season rather than last year's results. Similar to the last few seasons, though, I will be using position-by-position standards to compare the candidates I take a look at to their peers to see how they stack up on a HOF scale. 

This year's first five candidates that I will look at are: Esmailyn Johnson (13 votes in S60), Donn Oliver (12 votes in S58), Darnell Curtis (12 votes in S56), Odalis Marmol (11 votes in S59) and Geraldo Terrero (9 votes in S57.) If any of them don't make the cut, there are a number of first-year guys who I will go back and evaluate. But first we need to start with the five from above, so here's how they stack up: 

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Left Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 31 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 30 or fewer Estimated WAR

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Slam Dunk HOFer: 61 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 41 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 21 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 1 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: Less than 1 Estimated WAR

Darnell Curtis: 44 Estimated WAR = Definite HOFer

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR 

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR 

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case 

Yasiel Arias: 190 Estimated WAR = Slam Dunk HOFer

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 106 or fewer Estimated WAR

Pep Wanatabe: 85 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Since I make it a policy to vote for anyone in the top three categories, the five guys above will account for four of my votes. I will be passing on Terrero, even though I'm fairly sure I am the one who nominated him at some point a few seasons ago. As I mentioned above, my next move is to look at the first-year ballot guys: Denny Burriss, Rafael Torrez, Pep Wanatabe, Victor Olmedo, Julian Matos and Yasiel Arias. First up will be the pitchers, not only because their scores are faster to calculate but also because my guess is that Wanatabe and Arias have the best chance to be elected on the first go around. 

Arias actually has the best HOF case out of anyone that I've evaluated so far, Wanatabe had a solid career but the HOF numbers don't match up. As of now, my ballot will be Curtis, Johnson, Marmol, Oliver and Arias.  

 

 

 Just like last year, we are not quite at a point where I can factor in the data I began saving a few seasons ago with league leaders and real life was busy enough that I forgot to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. Oops. So, just like last year, I will use position-by-position Career WAR standards to determine how much of an argument each of the candidates has and then proceed from there. Using this process got Nigel Maybin inducted last season so hopefully it will get a few more deserving candidates over the line this time around. To start with I'll look at Odalis Marmol, Esmailyn Johnson and Miguel Tapies all of whom have previously received 10 HOF votes:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 106 Estimated WAR or Fewer

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Second Base

Slam Dunk HOFer = 113+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Right Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 44 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case 

Based on that information, I'll be voting for Johnson and Marmol and looking to the rest of the ballot to fill up to three slots. The next group of players I will be looking at are players in the first year of eligibility (which you can tell by looking at the "extras" in the HOF Voting screen and looking for guys whose "high vote" season is this year.) This season there are two hitters who fall into that category: Danny Carter (LF) and Reid Blume (RF).  Using the standards seen above, Blume falls well short and Carter's case needs a bit of digging to make:

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 92+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 72 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 52 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 32 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 31 or fewer Estimated WAR

Danny Carter: 26 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

As it turns out, Carter has no case for Virtual Cooperstown either, so I've still only used two of my five votes. This seems like a good season to give one of my votes to Tapies, who technically falls into the "No HOF Case" category but the bar at RP is currently very, very, very high due to there only being two guys at that position currently elected and his 102 Estimated WAR are the most that I've seen without getting elected and he is ahead of quite a few HOFers in that category. 

Since I am running low on time before voting closes and may or may not have enough free time to do any more WAR calculations, I take a quick look at the "extras" screen to see if anyone pops out at me as being potentially worthy of a vote in a somewhat down year...Lewis Hatley (3B) and his World Series Ring/MVP combo grab my attention on the hitter's side while Donne Giavotella and his 3 Cy Young Awards also pop out at me. Those two will get my final votes for now, and if I have the chance to crunch more numbers before voting closes my focus will be on them. 

 I still don't think we are quite at the point where people who were playing in the seasons where I have league leader data (Season 56-now) have retired yet, so the main metric I will be using is still Total Career WAR. However, I do have position-by-position data to compare each player with their closest peers in terms of HOF worthiness. Since I seem to have forgotten to take a screenshot of the top vote totals from last season, I am going to use the High Vote Total as a guide. The top five in that category are: Guillermo Gutierrez (16 votes in S54), Nigel Maybin (14 votes in S58), Miguel Tapies (11 votes in S55), Osvaldo Lee (8 votes in S54) and Geraldo Terrero/Roy Owen (5 votes in S57/S55 respectively.) 

Gutierrez is going to be considered a 1B for HOF purposes, Maybin is a SP, Tapies an RP, Lee also a 1B, Terrero is a starter and Roy Owen is a reliever. There have also been a few other names that have popped up in World Chat, so I'll evaluate them as well. They are: Odalis Marmol (RF), Esmailyn Johnson (2B), Chip Kinsler (3B) and Donne Giavotella (SP). Here's how they all stack up against HOF'ers at their individual positions:

First Basemen

Guillermo Gutierrez: 48 Park Adjusted Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Osvaldo Lee: 29 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Greg Forest

Starting Pitchers

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Donne Giavotella: 58 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Turner: 38 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Alan Henry: 19 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Gerald Grieve

Louie Sanchez

Relief Pitchers

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Roy Owen: 71 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Al Cabrera: 50 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Harold Aspromonte

Right Fielders

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Ramiro Guerrero: 21 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Second Basemen

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Cristhian Milner 

Christopher Perry

Third Basemen

Chip Kinsler: 55 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Darnell Curtis: 43 Estimated Career WAR = Definite HOF'er

Left Fielders

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Victor DeRojas: 28 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case at all

Otis Gold: 18 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF case at all

Adam Matthews

Shortstop

Eduardo Quintana 

 The annual Awards Voting blog post will once again utilize position and park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals, and I will also look into how several honorable mentions performed out of a matter of curiosity. I know I keep mentioning that I want to do a blog post on Career WAR, but I think that might be a little ways a way still. The good news is that I do have Estimated Career WAR totals for almost all of the HOF members, and then I'll start at the top of that list and work my way down when figuring out adjusted Career WAR totals. For now, we will continue to go season by season, starting with this year as seen below: 

AL Most Valuable Player

• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 8.63 WAR
• Maicer Rosales (1B-Nashville), 6.59 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.76 WAR
• Howie Cornelius (1B-Buffalo), 5.47 WAR
• Marco Moss (1B-Milwaukee), 5.67 WAR

NL Most Valuable Player

• Pep Komatsu (LF-Pittsburgh), 6.185 WAR
• Joey Hurst (3B-Baltimore), 4.14 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-Houston), 6.188 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 4.46 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 3.73 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.51 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.94 WAR
• Quentin Strickland (SP-Montreal), 3.69 WAR
• Luigi Almanzar (SP-Montreal), 4.63 WAR
• Harry Beltre (SP-Montreal), 5.47 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Scranton), 5.30 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 4.16 WAR
• Peter Brow (SP-St. Louis), 4.67 WAR
• David Rooney (SP-Houston), 3.90 WAR
• Juan Escuela (SP-Little Rock), 3.58 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 5.29 WAR
• Billy Linden (DH-Nashville), 2.02 WAR
• Derek Malone (RP-Salem), 0.98 WAR
• Cooper Posey (1B-Madison), 1.21 WAR
• Brennan Gil (LF-Madison), 0.72 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Benj Matthewson (2B-Tampa Bay), 5.94 WAR
• Trace Marquis (1B-Philadelphia), 1.05 WAR
• Gerald Meng (SP-Baltimore), -0.06 WAR
• Mateo Iglesias (1B-Tampa Bay), 2.86 WAR
• Asdrubal Lopez (2B-Houston), 4.81 WAR

Since I've finished the Awards Voting portion of this year's blog, here's a quick look at the top five players in WAR/year that I have on record so far (minimum 2 seasons worth of data):

1) Henderson Jackson, 9.0 WAR/year with 7 seasons of data missing

2) Luther Stowers, 7.5 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing 

3) Randy Pose, 6.9 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

4)Chick Prades, 6.3 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

5)Antonio Frandsen, 6.2 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

 At this point, I now have three seasons worth of League Leaders data saved for reference. However, none of the candidates who are currently on the ballot were playing when I started collecting that data so I am going to continue to use the combination of the previous season's ballot and the WAR-only standards to evaluate the current class on their HOF-worthiness. As a reminder, here are the results from last year's voting:

With Roosevelt and Cruz now in, the top five who missed out last year are Miguel Tapies (2 votes short), Nigel Maybin (3 votes short), Cesar Cairo (8 votes short), Guillermo Gutierrez (9 votes short) and Osvaldo Lee (9 votes short.) During the season last year I took some time to look a little more closely at the Hall of Fame here in Plumpy, and have figured out position-by-position standards rather than the general ones that I have been using for awhile now. Let's take a look at those five guys to see how they stack up compared to their positional peers:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all*

Julio Manuel: 55 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 149 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 129 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 109 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 89 Estimated WAR

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

David Giavotella: 58 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Turner: 41 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Brandon Peters: 147 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Third Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 76 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 56 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 36 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 16 Estimated WAR

Cesar Cairo: 59 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

First Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 73 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 33 Estimated WAR

Osvaldo Lee = 28 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case At All

Guillermo Gutierrez = 56 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case

Darnell Curtis, 43 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Donn Oliver, 52 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 31 Estimated WAR

Otis Gold: 18 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Victor DeRojas: 28 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Center Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 99 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 79 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 59 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 39 Estimated WAR

James Moore: 64 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case 

My policy has been to vote for anyone in the "Strong HOF Case" category or better whenever possible. Based on these lists, the following guys would get my vote using those criteria: Guillermo Gutierrez &  Cesar Cairo. However, the only reason that Miguel Tapies has "No HOF case at all" is because the only two relievers in the Hall are 6th and 13th on the All-Time list of Estimated WAR so I'm going to vote for Tapies as well and have two votes left to play with. 

The next two guys on the list from last season are Geraldo Terrero & David Giavotella, both of whom are starting pitchers. Neither of them have a HOF case using the standards above, so I move onto the next two guys on the list: Kordell Rivers (SP) & Darnell Curtis (1B.)  Rivers comes up completely short, while Curtis makes a weak case for election so I am going to move onto the rest of the list and see if there are any better option but the door remains open a crack for Curtis. 

I continue to move down the list of last year's vote totals until I get to James Moore, who makes a Strong HOF case so he gets my fourth vote. Next up will be the math on Victor DeRojas, Kordell Turner and Brandon Peters because they are first time candidates. DeRojas and Turner have "No HOF Case at all" but Peters is just shy of falling into the Slam Dunk category for SP's and has arguably the best case of anyone on the ballot this season so he gets my last vote. 

 This is the annual look at the End of Year Awards ballot using the Wins Above Replacement metric that accounts for both the parks everyone plays in as well as their defensive positions. I'm also working on putting together a Career WAR database, although I need some more time to update that for the parks and defensive positions. For now I'll just have to settle for this season, which can be seen below:

AL MVP

• Alex Salas (DH-Cincinnati), 6.84 WAR
• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 4.84 WAR 
• DT Long (CF-Nashville), 7.45 WAR
• Diego Wilfredo (1B-Madison), 6.81 WAR

NL MVP

• Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 7.87 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 6.07 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-El Paso), 4.07 WAR
• Joey Hurst (CF-Baltimore), 4.20 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 6.45 WAR  

Honorable Mention: Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.18 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.28 WAR
• Didi Sanchez (RP-Hartford), 2.29 WAR
• Alex Bennett (RP-Nashville), 0.81 WAR
• Willis McNichol (SP-Nashville), 2.85 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 3.84 WAR

NL Cy Young 

• Chick Prades (SP-Scranton), 6.62 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Cleveland), 4.46 WAR
• Lawrence Bryant (RP-Cleveland), 2.30 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 5.14 WAR
• Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 3.15 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Marty Caminiti (RF-Syracuse), 1.17 WAR
• Rodney Kelly (SP-Kansas City), 4.57 WAR
• Henderson Jordan (1B-Buffalo), 2.47 WAR
• Vitas Coello (SP-Buffalo), 1.83 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Jim Hollandsworth (RP-Pittsburgh), 2.83 WAR
• Randall De Fratus (RF-Scranton), 2.90 WAR
• Yohan Eovaldi (RP-El Paso), 0.24 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.22 WAR
• Aroldis Rodriguez (RF-Philadelphia), 2.40 WAR

I have often wondered how applying my voting methods for Virtual Cooperstown would translate over to the MLB Hall of Fame voting, and if my gut feeling about various major leaguers lines up with how I would vote for them using the strategies I use for HBD Hall of Fame Voting. Since we are in a bit of a lull in both the MLB season and our current HBD season, I figured I'd take the opportunity to find out for sure. 

Over the years here in Plumpy, my voting strategy has changed a bit but the most straightforward one (and therefore the one that I will initially use on my MLB ballot) is the Career WAR total method, broken down as follows:

Slam Dunk HOF'er = 100+ Career WAR

Definite HOF'er = 70 to 99 Career WAR

Strong HOF Case = 50 to 69 Career WAR

Weak HOF Case = 30 to 49 Career WAR

For a look at the full list of 30 players on the ballot this season, follow this link. Here's how those thirty breakdown into the categories listed above-

Slam Dunk HOF'ers = Barry Bonds (163 WAR), Roger Clemens (139 WAR),  A-Rod (117 WAR)

Definite HOF'ers = Curt Schilling (80 WAR), Scott Rolen (70 WAR), 

Strong HOF Case = Manny Ramirez (69 WAR), Andruw Jones (63 WAR), (Todd Helton (62 WAR), Gary Sheffield (61 WAR), Andy Pettitte (60.2 WAR), Bobby Abreu (60.2 WAR), Mark Buehrle (59.1 WAR), Sammy Sosa (58.6 WAR), Tim Hudson (57.8 WAR), Jeff Kent (56 WAR), David Ortiz (55 WAR), Torii Hunter (50.7 WAR), Mark Teixiera (50.6 WAR), 

Weak HOF Case = Jimmy Rollins (48 WAR), Omar Vizquel (45 WAR), Jake Peavy (39.2 WAR), Carl Crawford (39.1 WAR)

No HOF Case = Billy Wagner (28 WAR), Justin Morneau (27.0 WAR), Joe Nathan (26.7 WAR), AJ Pierzynski (23.8 WAR), Prince Fielder (23.8 WAR), Jonathan Papelbon (23 WAR), Tim Lincecum (19.1 WAR), Ryan Howard (14.7 WAR)

Based on that information, my initial ballot would look like this:

1) Barry Bonds-In previous years I've said I wouldn't vote for him because of PED's, but because it's his last year on the ballot and he's pretty close I'd throw him a vote and see if it made a difference. Honestly I'm fine either way on this one. 

2) Roger Clemens-See comments above about Barry Lamar Bonds. 

3) A-Rod-He very much fits into the same category as the first two, but the difference is that this is year #1 on the ballot for him, not year #10. 

4) Curt Schilling- It's not just that he's a jerk, it's that he's a jerk who is trying to use his platform to hurt others too.

5) Scott Rolen

6) Manny Ramirez-Repeat offender in the era of steroid suspensions. Seems hard to enforce the character clause on others who were never actually caught and give Manny a pass, even if I am a big Red Sox fan. 🤷‍♂️

7) Andruw Jones

8) Todd Helton

9) Gary Sheffield- He admitted to using steroids in 2002. I find it hard to believe he didn't also use steroids after that, and he was "only" worth 40 WAR before then...that's still good, but it's not HOF worthy.  

10) Andy Pettitte-He used HGH, but that was technically legal at the time and was never proved to have used other substances, so he stays.  

However, I'm a firm believer in the character clause being an important part of the voting process, and that eliminates a significant number of the players above being removed. Those guys are highlighted in red above and I've put the reasoning next to them. 

Since I've taken 5 guys off of my initial ballot, I look at the next five guys on the list to see how many of them get my vote. They are Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Sammy Sosa, Tim Hudson and Jeff Kent. Sosa gets the boot due to PEDs, but that's OK because it brings me to exactly ten votes: 

1) Barry Bonds

2) Roger Clemens

3) Scot Rolen

4) Andruw Jones

5) Todd Helton

6) Andy Pettitte 

7) Bobby Abreu

8) Mark Buehrle 

9) Tim Hudson

10) Jeff Kent

 Over the past few seasons, I have established a method of Hall of Fame voting that blends both previous voting totals and career Wins Above Replacement that has worked quite well and I will continue using that this year. However, I do have an extra wrinkle to add in at this point: I have been tracking WAR long enough that I am starting to get some career totals for Hall of Famers, so not only will I be able to get a general sense of their chances on an MLB scale but I can also now start comparing the candidates to their Plumpy counterparts as well. 

As usual, we start with a reminder of how last season's voting turned out: 

With Ingram and Corpas now in, our top five vote-getters who fell short last season were Miguel Tapies (1 vote short), Elian Rojas Jr. (7 votes short, and this is at least the third time he has shown up on this list), Osvaldo Lee (9 votes short), Guillermo Gutierrez (10 votes short) and Darnell Curtis (11 votes short.) 

Now that we have our list of leading candidates, let's see how their careers stack up using a method that is based on WAR and borrowed from MLB.com (but expanded to give players credit for leading the league in certain categories.) Here are the results:

• Miguel Tapies: 5.37 total points 
• 102 Estimated WAR in 19 seasons = 5.37 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 0 World Series Rings
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in WHIP, IP, K, Opp SLG and ERA ? times
• Led the league in Gms, SHO, W, SV and Opp OBP ? times
• Led the league in L, Most H, Most R, Most BB, Highest OAVG ? times
• Led the league in GS and SV Opp ? times, Most ER ? times
• Elian Rojas Jr: 12.97 total points 
• 69.54 WAR in 14 seasons = 4.97 Baseline Score
• 8 years of 4+ WAR = 8 points
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 0 World Series Rings
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Osvaldo Lee: 5.87 total points 
• 28 Estimated WAR in 15 seasons = 1.87 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 2 World Series Rings = 4 points
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Guillermo Gutierrez: 10.17 total points 
• 47.61 WAR in 15 seasons = 3.17 Baseline Score
• 5 years of 4+ WAR = 5 points
• 1 MVP Award = 2 points
• 0 World Series Rings 
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Darnell Curtis: 5.31 total points 
• 43 Estimated WAR in 13 seasons = 3.31 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 1 World Series Ring = 2 points
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 

This seems like a good formula to apply to HOF candidates going forward based on the results, but because I haven't been tracking league leaders up until this point I am going to use the WAR-only standards until we get to the point where candidates have league leader data available. This is what the WAR-only standards have to say about the current candidates:

Slam Dunk HOF'ers (100+ WAR) = none

Definite HOF'ers (70-99 WAR) = Miguel Tapies (102 Estimated WAR) 

Strong HOF Cases (50-69 WAR) = Marty Roosevelt (96 Estimated Career WAR), Nigel Maybin (89 Estimated Career WAR), Xander Cruz (81 Estimated Career WAR), Elian Rojas Jr (69.54 WAR)

Weak HOF Cases (Less Than 50 WAR) = Kordell Rivers (62 Estimated Career WAR), Donne Giavotella (58 Estimated WAR), Geraldo Terrero (Estimated 54 Career WAR), Guillermo Gutierrez (47.61 WAR), Glen Lowell (47.30 Career WAR), Darnell Curtis (43 Estimated WAR), Osvaldo Lee (28 Estimated WAR)

My policy is to vote for everyone in the "Strong HOF Case" category or higher, but looking at the current group of players that would only use up two of my five votes. That leads me to looking at the next three candidates on the list from last season: Geraldo Terrero (4 votes last year), Glen Lowell (4 votes last year) and Donne Giavotella (3 votes last year.) Lowell falls a little short, but the other two make the cut and bring me up to four votes used so far. Next on the list is Kordell Rivers, who received 3 votes last year. He also makes the cut and becomes my final vote for this season. 

Four of the five guys who are getting my votes have Estimated Career WAR totals right now, so the next step is to convert those estimations to park adjusted totals and re-evaluate their candidacy. 

***

Now that voting has actually started and it turns out that Rojas Jr. is not on the ballot this season, I need to find out if there is someone who is worthy of getting my fifth and final vote. I am going to start by looking into others who have received votes so far: 

• Cesar Cairo, 59 Estimated Career WAR
• Marty Roosevelt, 96 Estimated Career WAR
• Xander Cruz, 81 Estimated Career WAR
• Nigel Maybin, 89 Estimated Career WAR

These four are actually going to change my whole ballot around, as three of them turned out to be top five candidates for Virtual Cooperstown. At this point, I am looking at a ballot of Tapies, Roosevelt, Maybin and Cruz with my fifth and final vote still up for grabs. 

 This will be year #3 using the park and position adjusted formula for WAR to evaluate the end of year awards ballots and so far it's worked pretty well the first couple of seasons. Here's how this year's nominees stack up, and be on the lookout for an updated on Career WAR once I get these all set to go 😀

AL MVP

• Jensen Gonzales (2B-Cincinnati), 9.87 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 7.76 WAR
• Alex Salas (DH-Cincinnati), 5.43 WAR
• Jeremy Kershaw (CF-Helena), 4.92 WAR
• Jose Cedeno (DH-Helena), 3.92 WAR

NL MVP

• Luther Stowers (CF-El Paso), 8.68 WAR
• Henderson Jackson (2B-Chicago), 8.26 WAR
• Livan Guerrero (1B-Anaheim), 8.20 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 5.48 WAR
• Juan Torres (3B-Pittsburgh), 7.62 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Chick Prades (SP-Milwaukee), 7.03 WAR
• Midre Mendoza (RP-Hartford), 1.94 WAR
• Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Syracuse), 5.06 WAR
• Did Sanchez (RP-Hartford), 0.88 WAR
• Red Dodson (SP-Syracuse), 3.64 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Juan Escuela (SP-Little Rock), 4.85 WAR
• Kevin Ishida (RP-St. Louis), 2.03 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 4.94 WAR
• Clyde Ross (SP-Little Rock), 3.24 WAR
• Enrique Lee (SP-Pittsburgh), 4.94 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Brett Caruso (3B-Rochester), 5.76 WAR
• Mario Crosby (RP-Madison) -0.23 WAR
• Ugueth Gonzalez (1B-San Juan), 2.72 WAR
• Drake Dorsey (DH-Madison), 0.61 WAR
• Forrest Kirby (SP- Nashville), 0.40 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Cleveland), 3.21 WAR
• David Rooney (SP-El Paso), 1.65 WAR
• Artie Simmons (RP-El Paso), -0.26 WAR
• Garry Miller (SP-Scranton), 1.06 WAR
• Jim Hollandsworth (RP-Pittsburgh), 0.70 WAR