Season 50

Last season, we got three very deserving candidates into the Hall of Fame, although there are still quite a few other deserving candidates left to go. Below is a look at the voting results from last season: 
Looking at that list, let’s take a look at the “next five up” to see if the top five non-elected vote getters from last season are worthy of getting in this season: 

Player
Career Standard Score
HOF Worthiness
Pablo Macias
63.90 points as RF
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Desi Pena
56.90 points as RF
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Don Webster
50.90 points as SP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Midre Tarasco
45.60 points as SP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Ringo Oliver
25.80 points as RP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Since all of those guys are HOF-worthy, that makes this year’s voting easy and this post quite short☺
Much like I have for the past couple of seasons, I am going to provide the WAR totals for each of the nominees in the various award categories along with a little bit of commentary explaining who I voted for and why. Thanks also to Brian (raidersfan91sc) for the assist in putting the data together...without further ado, your S49 Awards Races:

AL MVP

  • Del Kondou (3B-Salem), 8.29 WAR
  • Donn Oliver (1B-Texas), 9.72 WAR
  • Tsuyoshi Lo (1B-Buffalo), 8.45 WAR
  • Lenn Posey (DH-New York), 7.83 WAR
  • Luther Stowers (LF-New York), 8.34 WAR
I can totally understand the support Kondou has been getting on the World Chat...putting up 8+ WAR in your age 33 season is certainly impressive...but I have to go with Oliver who is more than a full win clear of any of the other four and who contributed nearly 2 full WAR of defense this season. 

NL MVP
  • Christopher Perry (2B-Montgomery), 6.47 WAR
  • Cesar Cairo (3B-Jacksonville), 8.57 WAR
  • Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 7.47 WAR
  • Valerio Suarez (2B-Anaheim), 5.42 WAR
  • Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.17 WAR
This is another fairly easy choice, with the WAR leader being over a full win ahead of the next guy. I was a little bit surprised (and a bit disappointed) to see Suarez's name on this list, though, since I let him walk before the year started and then struggled to find a replacement...here's hoping that I hit on the picks I got for him. 

AL Cy Young
  • Adam Maybin (SP-Syracuse), 4.53 WAR
  • Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.69 WAR
  • Orber Guerrero (SP-Atlanta), 3.71 WAR
  • Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Atlanta), 4.48 WAR
  • Maicer Silva (SP-Tacoma), 2.97 WAR
Even though I've got a horse in this race, I won't be voting for him...this is a two horse race between Maybin and Sosa. I'm giving the edge to Maybin since he hasn't had as much help as Sosa did (evidenced by the fact that Sosa's teammate is also nominated.)

NL Cy Young
  • Juan Escuela (SP-Toronto), 2.92 WAR
  • Nigel Maybin (SP-Jacksonville), 3.88 WAR
  • Shelby Jorgensen (SP-Tampa Bay), 2.39 WAR
  • Clarence Roache (SP-Louisville), 2.91 WAR
  • Yasiel Arias (SP-Montgomery), 3.96 WAR
These WAR totals all include hitting ability, or lack thereof, so if you're thinking they they seem a little low that's probably why. The good thing is that they're all more or less equally bad at the plate so for the purposes of comparison the above totals will do just fine. 

AL Rookie of the Year
  • Dixon Gibson (SP-Helena), 2.56 WAR
  • Tim Burks (1B-Nashville), 3.07 WAR
  • Orlando Rienzo (1B-Ottawa), 5.24 WAR
  • Roger Diamond (RF-Tacoma), 2.12 WAR
  • Derrin Plunk (DH-Chicago), 2.51 WAR
Once again, I find myself voting for someone other than my guy simply because the leading candidate is so far out in front of the field. Rienzo's season ended up being more than 2 wins better than any of the other four candidates who finished the season on the ballot. This is just about as easy as they come in terms of voting decisions. 

NL Rookie of the Year
  • York Bonds (LF-Scranton), 6.17 WAR
  • Kendry Osuna (SP-Scranton), 3.94 WAR
  • Mac Zhang (LF-Toronto), 5.77 WAR
  • Julian Kelly (2B-Charlotte), 4.87 WAR
  • Sean Leathersich (LF-Montgomery), 5.52 WAR 
Right now I'm guessing that Zhang and Leathersich are both wishing they were AL players since they clearly had better rookie years than any of the AL nominees and yet will likely come up short in the NL. That's because York Bonds put up a WAR total that is superior to Suarez's total that got him nominated for the NL MVP. 
Each season, some of the best individual performances are recorded and highlighted by the WIS engine...but they get erased at the end of the year so I figured this would be a good place to keep a longer term record of those. Also, I have recently determined a way in which we can figure out once and for all who had the best individual performance of the season. Keeping records here also allows us to make cross-season references (starting in Season 49, since that's when this idea occurred to me.)

To evaluate each hitting performance, I am going to use a slightly modified version of the "ESPN Rating" which is essentially a Game Score for hitters that ESPN came up with. It is traditionally scored in the following manner:
  • Baseline score of 59
  • +1 point per hit
  • +1 point per run scored
  • +0.25 points per walk
  • +1 point for each Total Base
  • +0.25 points per steal
  • -0.25 points per caught stealing attempt
  • +0.25 points per Sac Fly
  • +0.25 points per Sac Hit 
  • +1 point per RBI
  • -0.25 points per strikeout
  • -0.25 point per non-productive out
This doesn't account for defense whatsoever, and in my humble opinion having a great game in the field on top of a great day at the plate is what really identifies the best of the best. At the same time, having a great day at the plate can be somewhat dampened by a miscue or two in the field. To that end, I've decided to add a defensive portion to the ESPN rating, which will consist of the following categories and point values: 
  • +0.25 points per putout
  • +0.25 points per infield assist
  • +0.50 points per outfield assist
  • -1 point per error
  • -0.25 points per passed ball
  • +0.25 points per runner caught stealing (by catcher)
  • +1 point per "plus" play
  • -1 point per "minus" play
For pitchers, I'm going to use Bill James' Game Score, which is calculated using the following criteria:
  • Baseline score of 50
  • +1 point per out recorded
  • +2 points per inning pitched after the 4th 
  • +1 point per strikeout
  • -2 points per hit allowed
  • -4 points per earned run allowed
  • -2 points per unearned run allowed
  • -1 point per walk allowed
Looking at this season's Noteworthy Games, all but one are hitting performances through the first 121 games of the regular season. Here's a quick breakdown of each of them (for reference, the best score-batting only-in MLB so far this season is 86.5 by Josh Bell in his 3 HR game on July 1st):

Stretch Kramer drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: no contributions = 81 overall total
Dickie Moore drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 79 batting total 
  • In the field: 6 putouts, 1 assist, 1 runner caught stealing = +2 fielding points = 81 overall total 
Nipsey Henley drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 5-for-6, 2 R, 2B, HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: no contributions = 81 overall total
Trevor Tatis drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 2-for-3, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, Sac Fly = 77.25 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts & 4 assists = +1.75 fielding points = 80 overall total
Al Gonzales drives in 7 runs 
  • At the plate: 4-for-6, R, HR, 7 RBI = 76 batting total
  • In the field: 7 putouts = +1.75 fielding points = 77.75 overall total
Osvaldo Lee drives in 8 runs 
  • At the plate: 5-for-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI = 86 batting total
  • In the field: 7 putouts = +1.75 fielding points = 87.75 overall total 
Pedro Villafuerte drives in 8 runs
  • At the plate: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 8 RBI, BB = 75.25 batting total
  • In the field: 9 putouts = +2.25 fielding points = 77.5 overall total
Danny Hatfield drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, BB, K = 79 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts = +0.75 fielding points = 79.75 overall total
Christopher Perry drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 4-for-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts, 4 assists = +1.5 fielding points = 82.5 overall total
Evan Todd Hits For Cycle
  • At the plate: 4-for-6, 2 R, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI, K = 75.75 batting total
  • In the field: 3 putouts = +0.75 fielding points = 76.5 overall total
York Bonds drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 3-for-4, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI = 81 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts = +0.50 fielding points = 81.5 overall total

Victor DeRojas drives in 7 runs
  • At the plate: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 7 RBI, HBP = 74.25 batting total
  • In the field: 2 putouts, 1 error = -0.50 fielding points = 73.75 overall total
Justin Whitman drives in 8 runs 
  • At the plate: 3-for-5, R, HR, 8 RBI, Sac Fly = 76.25 batting total 
  • In the field: 1 putout = +0.25 fielding points = 76.5 overall total 
My previous post regarding impartial trade evaluations was based on a Draft Value Chart that originated in the football universe, so it was admittedly a little bit flawed. However, thanks to FanGraphs Audio podcast Effectively Wild and the associated Facebook group, I have recently stumbled upon the website Baseball Trade Values. In addition to being super fun to mess around with on the subject of MLB hypotheticals, it also provides a nice model of how to assess trades here in Hardball Dynasty.

For those of you who didn't click the link above, here's the most important portion of the article that they've written explaining how they calculate a player's trade value: "On the surface, calculating trade value is relatively simple: Field value – salary = surplus ...What do we mean by 'field value'? (By the way, that’s our term. We don’t know if anyone else uses it.) It’s an estimate of how much that player is worth on the field."  

They then go onto explain that they take the following items into consideration when calculating "field value":

1) Dollars-Per-WAR. They explain that they've figured out that MLB teams pay roughly $9M per WAR in Free Agency and use that as their baseline in calculations. However, in Hardball Dynasty, the maximum amount you can pay a Free Agent is $30M per season and the high end of the WAR spectrum is typically around 10 WAR in a given season, so here in HBD it would be more like $3M per WAR. 

2) Projections. They use projections based on advanced models such as the ones on FanGraphs, which are likely more advanced than the system that I use. However, I do have a method for estimating a player's WAR value in Hardball Dynasty, so that's what I'll use for the projections in this system.

3) Inflation. Thanks to the constant $185M budget, this is not something we need to account for here.

4) Years of Control. This is pretty straight forward, with the exception of guys on rookie contracts. For those players, the idea is that they'd get arbitrated if their projected WAR is bigger than zero...but if it's negative, they'd get released and are considered under control up until the end of their rookie deal and not beyond. The dollars-per-WAR and projections generate a one-year total, so that total simply gets multiplied by the number of years left on a guys contract to estimate a total WAR projection for the player.

5) Injury Risk. They aren't very specific about how they mathamatically account for injuries in their formula, but lucky for us HBD has a health rating. I have added in an "injury multiplier" that is directly tied to the player's health rating.  The total WAR projection from the years of controlled would be multiplied by this number.

6) Roster Risk. In their words "players who are out of options carry what we call roster risk, which is a negative adjustment to their field value. We apply a discount for players with that status. (Note that this is only true of players who are marginal – typically somewhere just above replacement value; stars or above-average regulars don’t have this risk.)" For the purposes of this exercise, I am going to apply this penalty to players who project to have single season WAR totals between 0 and 2 overall.

After those totals have been calculated, to find the "surplus value" you simply subtract the total amount of money the player is owed over the course of the contract from the total value that the formula produces. For minor leaguers, it's a somewhat simpler formula in that the years of control are eliminated (since there's no guarantee they'll make the majors.) Here's a look at the deal that I analyzed before using this new method:

To Louisville: Jared File ; Lance Williams
To Toronto: Pascual Arias ; $5M

Jared File: -3.91 projected WAR, 73 health rating, maximum roster risk (for negative value), position bonus for playing catcher = -7.71 "surplus" trade value

Lance Williams: 0.24 projected WAR, 85 health rating, medium roster risk, no position bonus = 0.81 surplus trade value

Pascual Arias: -3.93 projected WAR, 58 health rating, maximum roster risk, no position bonus = -11.79 "surplus" trade value

$5M cash: In a system that's evaluated in cash value, cash comes at face value = 5.00 surplus trade value

IN TOTAL:  Louisville -7.71 + 0.81 = -6.90 "surplus" trade value // Toronto: -11.79 +  5.00 = -6.79 "surplus" trade value

Since there aren't any major leaguers in that (fair) deal above, I've decided to publish my evaluation of a trade offer from Milwaukee to me (Tacoma) to illustrate how that works:

To Milwaukee: John Tabaka, Khiry Russ, Nelson Olson
To Tacoma: Junior Ford, Dillon Corey

John Tabaka: -1.35 projected WAR, 82 health, maximum roster risk, no position bonus = -4.68 "surplus" trade value

Khiry Russ: 1.85 projected WAR, 2.5 years of control, 81 health rating, medium roster risk = 5.73 trade value - 1.081 million owed over rookie contract = 4.649 surplus trade value

Nelson Olson: -2.92 projected WAR, 45 health, maximum roster risk, no position bonus = -8.10 "surplus" trade value 

Junior Ford: 3.24 projected WAR, 48 health, 1.5 years of control, no roster risk = 7.83 trade value - 9.9 million owed over next 1.5 seasons = -2.07 "surplus" trade value

Dillon Corey: -2.81 projected WAR, 49 health, maximum roster risk, position bonus for playing SS = -0.84 "surplus" trade value

IN TOTAL: Tacoma -2.07 - 0.84 = -2.91 "surplus" trade value // Milwaukee  -4.68 + 4.649 -8.10 = -8.131 "surplus" trade value
We are roughly a quarter of the way through the regular season here in Plumpy, and since there are a number of teams that have potential MWR violations this season I figured this would be a good time to check in on them. I have borrowed pajammies' list of teams on the hot seat from the Private World Rules page, so if you see a team that should be highlighted and that I somehow missed please let me know! Without further ado, your S49 Quarter Mark Heat Check:

New York Highlanders (70 wins needed)

  • Current Win Pace: 0.604
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.570
  • Expected Win Pace (avg of two above) : 0.587
  • Projected Win Total: 32 current + (109*0.587 = 64 more projected) = 96 total
  • Heat Check: Mild
Louisville (68 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.472
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.441
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.457
  • Projected Win Total: 25 current + 50 more  = 75 total
  • Heat Check: Luke Warm
Chicago FrozenKoreans (67 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.340
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.367
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.354
  • Projected Win Total: 18 current + 39 more = 57 total
  • Heat Check: Steaming
Tacoma (66 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.491
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.473
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.482
  • Projected Win Total: 26 current + 53 more = 79 total
  • Heat Check: Luke Warm
Helena (63 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.453
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.556
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.505
  • Projected Win Total: 24 current + 55 more = 79 total
  • Heat Check: Luke Warm
Syracuse (58 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.679
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.650
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.665
  • Projected Win Total: 36 current + 72 more = 108 total
  • Heat Check: Ice Cold
Cleveland (58 wins needed)
  • Current Win Pace: 0.377
  • Pythagorean Win Pace: 0.424
  • Expected Win Pace: 0.401
  • Projected Win Total: 20 current + 44 more = 64 total
  • Heat Check: Luke Warm

On Pace For 55 or Fewer (current win% of .340 or worse)
  • Chicago Frozen Koreans - 55 win pace
  • Chicago Blue Sox - 52 win pace
  • Texas Cowpokes - 55 win pace
  • Kansas City Kilroy - 37 win pace
In both our sister world of Steinbrenner and my original world of FYC, I have brought up a method of evaluating trades that is impartial and essentially 100% fact-based. It has come in useful for both situations like the one we currently find ourselves in here, where there is some debate as to whether or not a trade is "fair" and also for fun blog-based activities.

The method is based mainly on draft position and is derived from Pro Football Focus's Draft Value Chart which assigns a certain number of "draft points" to specific draft slots. However, since that chart was developed for football there are a couple of adjustments that need to be made for baseball (and Hardball Dynasty in particular): International Free Agents, Diamonds In The Rough and Cash in trades. Also, for the purposes of evaluating trades on the basis of "fairness" I have come to the conclusion that anything more than a 10 point difference of value between the two sides is a deal that should be questioned if not outright vetoed.

With all that in mind, here is how this method could be applied to the trade currently up for debate on the World Chat:

To Louisville: Jared File, Pick #308 = 0 Draft Points ; Lance Williams, Pick #82 = 6.50 Draft Points
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, DITR w/value of Pick #208 = 0.7 Draft Points ; $5M = 5 Draft Points

Totals: Louisville 6.50 Draft Points ; Toronto 5.70 Draft Points...difference of 0.80 Draft Points = FAIR DEAL

 ****IT HAS BEEN POINTED OUT THAT THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE QUALITY OF THE PLAYER REGARDLESS OF THEIR DRAFT POSITION...TO THAT END, I RE-DID THE EVALUATION BASED ON PROJECTED WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT***

I often evaluate players based on a formula that gives me projected WAR totals for a player based on their ratings. Given the observation above, I figured I'd run the players involved through that spreadsheet to see how the two sides of the deal stack up based on the "major league quality" involved. Here's what I came up with:

To Louisville: Jared File, -2.18 WAR ; Lance Williams, 0.24 WAR = -1.94 WAR value received
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, -3.41 WAR, $5M (~1.67 WAR) =  -1.74 WAR value received

Again, seems like a pretty fair deal...but I can also see the other side since File is a serviceable defensive catcher at the ML level.
 There has been some lively discussion on the World Chat regarding the Hall of Fame debate, specifically who the five most deserving candidates are. The consensus seems to be that there are more than five guys who can make a compelling HOF case, and my calculations seem to back that opinion up...but the reality is that we can only elect five at a time, so I have used the Hall of Fame Standards created by Bill James to sort the candidates into several categories. Here are the results, and if you’re curious about the process that I used, feel free to TC/Sitemail me (or look back at previous posts!):

“Better Than Babe”
  • None
No Doubt, First Ballot Hall of Famers
  • Myron Byrnes, 72.90 points
  • Enos Leonard, 70.20 points
  • Tiny Garcia, 63.00 points
Eventual Hall of Famers
  • Pablo Macias, 63.90 points
  • Desi Pena, 56.90 points
  • Jeremi Rivera, 56.10 points
  • Pinky Curtis, 53.50 points
  • Stephen Collins, 53.10 points
  • Giomar Estrada, 52.60 points
  • Nigel Yount, 52.20 points
  • Shannon Lemon, 52.10 points
  • Don Webster, 50.90 points
  • Don Wang, 50.50 points
  • Julius Moreno, 49.80 points
  • Monte Turner, 49.30 points
  • Rob Russell, 49.40 points
  • Fritz Walsh, 48.80 points
  • Roscoe Rooney, 48.70 points
  • Eric Surhoff, 48.40 points
  • Alex Weeks, 48.10 points
  • Guy Gorzellany, 47.80 points
  • Midre Tarasco, 45.60 points
  • Lyle Hines, 42.50 points
  • Ringo Oliver, 25.80 points (outscored only RP in HOF)
  • David Campos, 23.30 points (outscored only RP in HOF)
Longshot HOF Candidates
  • Rey Maxwell, 43.50 points
  • Larry Montgomery, 43.50 points
  • Jair Arredondo, 42.90 points
  • Mariano Infante, 41.20 points
  • Rod DeJean, 40.20 points
  • Tripp Uribe, 39.80 points
  • Otto Dillon, 34.20 points
  • Neil Koplove, 33.80 points
  • Sandy Mieske, 32.60 points
  • Ugueth Padilla, 30.00 points
  • Kent Parrish, 29.60 points
  • Howie Zimmerman, 28.20 points
  • Eric Adams, 26.10 points
  • Fred Sparks, 20.90 points
  • Eugene Hynes, 20.70 points
  • Harold Aspromonte, 20.20 points

There does seem to be a movement afoot to elect Webster, and as a newer owner I don’t feel qualified to dispute that...as a result, I will be voting for the following five candidates:
  • Myron Byrnes, 72.90 points
  • Enos Leonard, 70.20 points
  • Tiny Garcia, 63.00 points
  • Don Webster, 50.90 points
  • Pablo Macias, 63.90 points

It's been 6 full seasons since the Season 42 draft and it's time to take a look back at how teams performed.  I keep falling more and more behind on these, but I'll keep cranking them out as I am able.

Pick #1 - Kory Ogea RP - Charlotte Hummingbirds (formerly Tacoma).  Grade: F-

Kory Ogea
Kory Ogea
Charlotte
hummingbirds
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: W Palm Beach, FL
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

We start with a player who looks more like a 30th pick than a 1st pick.  His line of 1.69/5.84 (WHIP/ERA going forward in this article) in 121.2 ML innings is about par for the course for what you would expect.  I don't know what the former owner was thinking as you simply don't take a relief pitcher with the first pick, let alone a middling one.  Let's move on.



Pick #2 - Preston Workman 3B - Buffalo Lake Effect.  Grade: A+

Preston Workman
Preston Workman
Buffalo
Lake Effect
Age: 25B/T: S/R
Born: Chatham, VA
Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Workman has lived up to his name, as he's been an on-the-job monster for Buffalo.  He already has a World Series ring, Homerun Derby championship, Silver Slugger, and an All-Star appearance.  His slash line in 1,673 AB's is .295/.355/.545 with 107 HR and 330 RBI.  He's heading into his prime and features a plus glove at 3B after being moved over from SS soon after the draft (as happens with a lot of young prospects).   He signed for well above slot at $6.6M as there were some signing concerns, but that gamble has paid off nicely.


Pick #3 - Brian Kozlowski - SP/RP - Salem Eclipse (traded to Salem post draft)  Grade: A

Brian Kozlowski
Brian Kozlowski
Salem
Eclipse
Age: 26B/T: R/R
Born: Pomeroy, OH
Position(s): P (SP5)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Kozlowski is a tweener - with 58 Stamina and 26 Durability it's difficult to decide if he's a starter on a short leash or a reliever who pitches every other day 1-2 innings each appearance.  In his career thus far he has strictly been the latter, throwing all 381.2 innings out of the bullpen with a line of 1.25/3.56, a 31-11 record, and 25/37 on saves.  If his stamina was a bit higher he'd be a #1 starter - in fact, I am surprised his core numbers aren't a little better.  He certainly seems capable of 1.15/3.00.


Pick #4 - Arthur White - 2B - Tacoma Trail Blazers.  Grade: C+

Arthur White
Arthur White
Tacoma
Trail Blazers
Age: 27B/T: L/L
Born: Lake Forest, CA
Position(s): CF/1B/OF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I can't emphasize this enough: he's a 2B!!!  His bat plays perfectly there, as does his speed.  He was drafted as a CF but didn't quite get to the range/glove needed to stick there, so he's been relegated to 3B?!????!????  In 2,829 innings at 3B he has a 1 plus play and 57 minus plays!   Has his bat made up for it?  Nope.  Slash line of .263/.358/.358 - which is decent for a 2B but terrible for a 3B who can't field.  This pick at #4 was pretty good - but his treatment since then has been an F.


Pick #5 - Enrique Lee - SP - Salem Eclipse    Grade: A+

Enrique Lee
Enrique Lee
Salem
Eclipse
Age: 25B/T: L/L
Born: Clayton, NJ
Position(s): P (SP1)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile
What a player to nab at #5!  Real question for CheezyWriter: would you trade Lee straight up for Workman, the #2 pick?  I'm guessing no - and Workman was a great pick too.  Now...Lee has been good but not excellent like we would all expect.  His line of 1.29/3.87 in 442 innings doesn't scream stud, and in injury last season may have cut down on his top line expectations.  His split rating against RHB is what holds him back - but if you can pencil this guy in to throw 250 innings for the next 10 years you're in a pretty good spot.

The downside here of course is his health, which is 45.  That wouldn't have stopped me from taking him here as I've had 99 injury rating guys get their careers derailed (in fact this happened last season to my team!!!).    Lee has made two all-star teams and was the rookie of the year.  Great start to a promising career and we can hope he stays healthy.



Pick #6 - Santiago Motherfuckin' Rivera - CF/2B/LF - Toledo Scots   Grade: A+

Santiago Rivera
Santiago Rivera
Toledo
Scots
Age: 25B/T: S/R
Born: Wewoka, OK
Position(s): CF/IF/OF/DH
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I didn't pre-scout this draft before I started typing these up - and holy shit this draft is loaded!  I originally graded the first pick Ogea an "F" and I have now gone back up and changed it to an F-minus.  I'd have to go back into my previous writings to see how many A+ ratings I've given out, but it can't be many.  There are three in the top 6 picks here!

Rivera was drafted as a CF and has been stubbornly used there even though he would be much better at 2B or even COF.  His bat, however, would play at DH it's so fucking good.  89/99/61/79/83 hitting ratings have equaled a blistering .284/.362/.567 slash line in 2,000 ML ABs with 160 HR and 438 RBI.

Back to the defense topic: Rivera has a .951 fielding percentage and +/- of 0/9 and a range factor of 2.31.  When compared to a real CF like Syracuse's Chul Hasegawa, who has a .985 fielding percentage, +/- of 32/1, and a range factor of 2.57 - there are a lot more runs being given up by playing Rivera in CF.


Pick #7 - Keith Mahomes - LF - Atlanta Alligator Men    Grade: F

Keith Mahomes
Keith Mahomes
none
none
Age: 19B/T: S/L
Born: Maple, WI
Position(s): LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Mahomes never signed and looked pretty crappy anyways.  It looks like he was never even offered his demands, so the team didn't even get a comp pick the next season.  Whoops.  These mistakes can haunt franchises and this is a big reason why it can be difficult to turnaround a team that's been on the junk heap for many seasons.


Pick #8 - Marc Banks - SP - Nashville Catfish Hurlers    Grade: D

Marc Banks
Marc Banks
Nashville
Catfish Hurlers
Age: 28B/T: R/R
Born: Copiague, NY
Position(s): P (SP5)
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Yikes - this is the danger of having 4 pitches and three of them stink (I can relate as a poor wiffleball pitcher myself).  His best quality in his career will be as an innings eater with high Stam and Dur.  He has a 1.41/5.50 slash line and that looks about right.  Decent player to trade for if you're doing a mini tank.


Pick #9 - Bud Greene - CF - El Paso Eephus   Grade: F

I can't even link this guy - it doesn't seem his demands were met, so no compensation pick here either.  This is a draft with high highs and low lows.  Yikes.



Pick #10 - Quentin Winn - SP - Anaheim Avengers    Grade: B+ 

Quentin Winn
Quentin Winn
Anaheim
Avengers
Age: 28B/T: L/L
Born: Subiaco, AR
Position(s): P (LRA)
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I really like this guy here at pick 10.  Solid starter, can't throw a ton of innings (about 130-150) but a career line of 1.37/4.05 used half as a starter and half in relief and he'll be around for awhile.  I would start him in the playoffs as my 4th guy - maybe even 3rd.


Best pick outside the Top 10 in my quick search: Pick #66 - Tom Hardy - SS Scranton Boll Weevils

Tom Hardy
Tom Hardy
Scranton
Boll Weevils
Age: 26B/T: R/R
Born: Baton Rouge, LA
Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH
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If you ever wonder why Zeustis is successful in this game, look at this pick.  He found his starting shortstop at pick #66 - and he has a career line of .225/.280/.376 with some pop - 20 HR last season! This is while playing sterling defense with +/- of 46/1 and .977 fielding %.  Nice grab here.

Thanks for reading!





Last season, I wrote about the candidates who I believed should be inducted into the Plumpy Hall of Fame based on Bill James' HOF Monitor Score. It is a great tool for judging HOF-worthiness, but unfortunately it takes awhile to calculate and I've been pretty busy in real life recently. As a result, there are not HOFM calculations this year...but I did happen to stumble on another one of James' metrics that is much faster to tabulate and have decided to use that instead.

That metric is the Career Standard score, which is calculated on a 0-100 scale using career totals and some rate-based stats like RBI's per game rather than just the raw totals. To keep things somewhat consistent, though, I've broken things down into several categories of HOF worthiness and chosen the top five candidates based on that breakdown. Here are the results:

"Better Than Babe" 
NONE

"No-Doubt First Ballot Player" 

  • Wayne Wilson (79.50 points)
Eventual HOF'ers 
  • Pablo Macias (63.90 points)
  • Desi Pena (56.90 points)
  • Jeremi Rivera (56.10 points)
  • Pinky Curtis (53.50 points)
  • Stephen Collins (53.10 points)
  • Giomar Estrada (52.60 points)
  • Nigel Yount (52.20 points)
  • Shannon Lemon (52.10 points)
  • Dustan Beckham (50.70 points)
  • Ringo Oliver (25.80 points as RP) *
  • David Campos (23.30 points as RP) *
*outscored the only RP to be elected to the Plumpy HOF (PT Jenkins)

HOF Longshots-TBD
Snowball's Chance in Hell at HOF-TBD