As has become customary, I am going to take a look at this year's HOF candidates using a mixture of previous voting results and the Wins Above Replacement metric that I use in other blog posts. In each of the last two seasons we have elected a pair of highly deserving candidates, but there are still a handful on the ballot that merit serious consideration. Just as a reminder, here is a look at how last year's voting turned out: 


As you can see, Guzman and Reames crossed the finish line while a few others came fairly close. The top five vote totals that failed to cross the finish line were the following: Guillermo Gutierrez (14 votes), James Moore (9 votes), Osvaldo Lee (9 votes), Fred Sparks (8 votes) and Maikel Romano (7 votes.) 


Generally speaking, I tend to use the following guidelines when it comes to Wins Above Replacement and HOF voting: 100+ WAR is a shoe-in, 70-99 is definitely deserving and 50-69 deserves serious consideration but I can live with it if they don't get elected. The estimated career totals for WAR listed above were calculated using the positional adjustment formula applied to their career totals in fielding and hitting so they should be pretty accurate...and since nobody is "definitely deserving" I'm going to go through the rest of the list and see if anyone from down the ballot qualifies and go from there. The current results are as follows:

HOF Shoe-Ins: none
Definitely Deserving of HOF: Pablo Corpas (74)
Serious Consideration for HOF: Ubaldo Otanez (67), James Moore (64), Glen Lowell (62), Carlos Valentin (58), Sandy Mieske (57), Guillermo Gutierrez (56), Elian Rojas Jr (50), Al Cabrera (50)
Evaluated and not HOF worthy: Maikel Romano (49), Tripp Uribe (40), Greg Forest (39), Fred Coles (38), Bartolo Ramirez (35), Don Wang (34), Osvaldo Lee (28),  Alexi Franco (27), Ramiro Guerrero (21), Otis Gold (18)

 

Since I have some extra time on my hands this season, I am going to work on getting the exact totals for the leading candidates and I will also add the estimates for anyone I missed when the ballot comes out for real. I will post in the World Chat if/when there are significant updates to report. 


Editor's Note-I have recreated the above chart using the exact totals (which account for both positional and park adjustments) for all of the players who I have finished the math for. Here are the results: 

HOF Shoe-Ins:

Definitely Deserving of HOF:

Serious Consideration for HOF:

Evaluated and not HOF worthy: Guillermo Gutierrez (47.16 WAR)

 As I mentioned on the World Chat, I have recently discovered a way to account for Positional Adjustments as well as Park Factors in my Wins Above Replacement calculations that I use for both the Hall of Fame blog posts and the end of year awards. Due to the fact that I made this discovery mid-season, I have started going back over the past couple of seasons and correcting the calculations for the purposes of an All-Time WAR document that I'm putting together, but these are going to be the first of the new calculations that I publish so let me know what you think. 

 If you have a specific player that you are interested in seeing the calculation for let me know via TC or World Chat and I'll add them into the category you would have expected to see them as an "Honorable Mention" for comparison purposes. Hopefully this helps you make your choices for the most deserving winners, and without further preamble here are this season's results: 

{Editor's Note: I really like the idea of voting for our own award winners next year...I will do a follow up post with a case study of this concept using this year's data}

AL MVP

  • Tsuyoshi Lo (1B-Ottawa), 6.85 WAR
  • Maicer Rosales (1B-Nashville), 6.32 WAR
  • Luther Stowers (CF-Milwaukee), 6.25 WAR
  • Alex Salas (DH-Cincinnati), 5.39 WAR
  • Felipe Soria (RF-Salem), 6.07 WAR
Honorable Mention: Christopher Parades (2B-Toronto), 4.97 WAR

NL MVP
  • Lee Mouton (LF-Anaheim), 7.82 WAR
  • Livan Guerrero (1B-Anaheim), 6.01 WAR
  • Geronimo Fernandez (2B-St. Louis), 7.81 WAR
  • Peter Reininger (3B-Scranton), 7.18 WAR
  • Tyson Cowgill (1B-Jacksonville), 6.88 WAR
AL Cy Young
  • Chick Prades (SP-Milwaukee), 7.42 WAR
  • Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Syracuse), 5.35 WAR
  • Paolo Cortes (RP-Ottawa), 4.24 WAR
  • Clarence Bennett (SP-Salem), 3.04 WAR
  • Dixon Gibson (SP-Helena), 3.11 WAR
NL Cy Young
  • Xander Cruz (SP-St. Louis), 4.97 WAR
  • Daniel Wells (SP-Little Rock), 2.91 WAR
  • Juan Escuela (SP-Little Rock), 3.22 WAR
  • Yasiel Figaro (SP-St. Louis), 3.80 WAR
  • Kevin Ishida (RP-St. Louis), 2.12 WAR
AL Rookie of the Year
  • Felipe Soria (RF-Salem), 6.07 WAR
  • Hiroyuki Donald (SP-Cincinnati), 2.19 WAR
  • Marcell Durazo (LF-Cincinnati), 3.00 WAR
  • Paul Merchan (1B-Buffalo), 2.07 WAR
  • David Hill (1B-Salem), 1.59 WAR
NL Rookie of the Year
  • Christopher Prades (2B-Toronto), 4.97 WAR
  • Igancio Dominguez (RP-Little Rock), 0.29 WAR
  • Sam Jamison (1B-Salt Lake City), 2.21 WAR
  • Marshall Forrest (RP-Pittsburgh), 0.31 WAR
  • Juan Torrez (3B-Pittsburgh), 1.96 WAR

 As with the past few seasons, I am going to base both my ballot and this blog post off of the previous season's voting results in an effort to find the sweet spot between the players with the most support and those with careers worthy of election. Just as a refresher, I am going to look at the top five players who didn't cross the threshold and evaluate them using the Wins Above Replacement metric to see where they stack up against the competition. To start, let's look at last season's voting results:


With Ethier and Guerrero safely enshrined in Virtual Cooperstown, the five with the most support who fell short last year are: Fred Sparks (11 votes), Elian Rojas Jr (10 votes), Maikel Romano (10 votes), Theodore Reames (8 votes) and Glen Lowell/Harry Espinosa (7 votes each.) The career WAR of those six is listed below: 

1) Theodore Reames, 72 Estimated Career WAR

2) Fred Sparks, 63 Estimated Career WAR

3) Maikel Romano, 62 Estimated Career WAR

t-4) Elian Rojas Jr, 61 Estimated Career WAR

t-4) Harry Espinosa, 61 Estimated Career WAR

5) Glen Lowell, 43 Estimated Career WAR

Other candidates that have been mentioned on the World Chat include: 

  • Enrique Guzman, 102 Estimated Career WAR
  • Guillermo Gutierrez, 79 Estimated Career WAR
  • Tripp Uribe, 40 Estimated Career WAR
  • Al Cabrera, 50 Estimated Career WAR
  • Osvaldo Lee, 53 Estimated Career WAR
  • James Moore, 67 Estimated Career WAR
  • Don Wang, 41 Estimated Career WAR
Out of all the candidates discussed above, the following are the top five:

1) Enrique Guzman, 102 Estimated Career WAR
2) Guillermo Gutierrez, 79 Estimated Career WAR
3) Theodore Reames, 72 Estimated Career WAR
4) James Moore, 67 Estimated Career WAR
5) Fred Sparks, 63 Estimated Career WAR

 In the last couple of seasons, I have used a combination of the previous season's vote totals and the Wins Above Replacement metric to guide both my ballot and the annual blog post. Unfortunately, I forgot to take a screenshot of the vote totals from Season 53 so I am going to use the career high vote totals for those on the ballot to shape my first five candidates. Here is a look at everyone's best vote total to date: 


Let's take a closer look at the top five by vote totals:

1) Harry Espinosa, career high 12 votes = Estimated 61 Career WAR
2) Elian Rojas Jr, career high 11 votes = Estimated 61 Career WAR 
3) James Moore, career high 10 votes = Estimated 67 Career WAR
4) Fritz Walsh, career high 8 votes = Estimated 30 Career WAR
5) Maikel Romano, career high 7 votes = Estimated 62 Career WAR

There have also been a number of names brought up on the world chat, so let's see how those guys stack up as well:

Fred Sparks = Estimated 63 Career WAR
Junior Ethier = Estimated 63 Career WAR
Orber Guerrero = Estimated 119 Career WAR

Based on all of that data, here's my ballot right now: Guerrero, Moore, Sparks, Ethier, Romano



Last season, I mentioned that I found a quick and easy way to calculate Wins Above Replacement for hitters and that it's a good way to easily assess HOF-worthiness. I still believe that, and now that I've calculated some of the totals for guys on the ballot, it is even more true because the process is now faster.

Just like last season, I have saved the voting totals from the previous season via screenshot and have included them below:


As you can see, we got a couple guys in last year using this method after getting just one guy in over the previous two seasons. That leaves the following five guys as the top five vote-getters who fell short of election last year:

1) Pablo Macias, 15 of 16 votes needed last year
t-2) Gregorio Astacio & Don Webster, 13 of 16 votes needed last year
3) David Campos, 12 of 16 votes needed last year
4) Elian Rojas Jr, 8 of 16 votes needed last year
5) Harry Espinosa, 6 of 16 votes needed last year

Here's a quick look at my estimated career WAR totals for those six, and what kind of a chance they have at election as a result:
  • Pablo Macias: 52 career WAR, "I Might Get In" 
  • Gregorio Astacio:  64 career WAR, "I Might Get In"
  • Don Webster: Career Standard Score 50.9, "I Might Get In"
  • David Campos: Career Standard Score 23.3, "I'll Get In Eventually"
  • Elian Rojas Jr: 61 career WAR, "I Might Get In"
  • Harry Espinosa: Career Standard Score 45.0, "I Might Get In"
As of right now, I will be voting for everyone listed above except for Macias. However, I am going to take a closer look at the ballot and will update this page if/when I have more information to present. Until then I hope this helps!

***EDIT: Campos is not on the ballot this season, so I will replace him with Macias on my initial round of votes***

The World Chat conversation so far this season has also brought up the following names:

  • James Moore, 67 career WAR, "I Might Get In" 
  • Otis Gold, 25 career WAR, "Field of {Pipe} Dreams"
  • Glen Lowell, 43 career WAR, "Praying For A Miracle"
  • Fred Sparks, Career Standard Score 20.3, "I Might Get In"
At this point, I'm looking over the list of candidates and not seeing anyone on the ballot whose case is stronger than "I Might Get In"...which could very easily be a first in all of my seasons writing HOF blog posts across my various worlds. That being said, I think we should still try to elect as many guys as possible who "might get in." This would be the perfect year for it!
As has become tradition, I am going to take a quick look at each of the candidates for the end of season awards and see who stands above the rest in terms of Wins Above Replacement. Each year, I choose the top player by WAR for each award as the guy that I support, and I hope it helps aid your voting as well as providing a bit of entertainment during the playoffs...which are either stressful if you're participating and (potentially) boring if you are not. As always, I'm happy to discuss my methods with you via Trade Chat or Sitemail, but don't want to bore those of you who just want to see results and aren't overly concerned with the process. Here's how the S52 awards break down:

AL MVP

  • Antonio Frandsen (DH-Ottawa), 9.91 WAR
  • Preston Workman (3B-Buffalo), 6.30 WAR
  • Angelys Santos (1B-Syracuse), 6.53 WAR
  • Luther Stowers (LF-Pawtucket), 8.75 WAR
  • Juan Carlos Lugo (1B-Tacoma), 8.31 WAR
NL MVP
  • Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 8.33 WAR
  • Lewis Hatley (SS-Scranton), 7.09 WAR
  • Nigel Sugawara (RF-Salt Lake), 6.57 WAR
  • Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.73 WAR
  • Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 5.68 WAR
AL Cy Young
  • Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Little Rock), 3.81 WAR
  • Fernando Javier (SP-Helena), 3.59 WAR
  • Cy Medina (RP-San Juan), -0.39 WAR
  • Stefen Haase (RP-Toledo), 1.06 WAR
  • Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.28 WAR 
NL Cy Young
  • Xander Cruz (SP-St. Louis), 4.31 WAR
  • Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 5.71 WAR
  • Dan Sweeney (SP-Scranton), 3.99 WAR
  • Edward Coomer (SP-Montgomery), 6.47 WAR
  • Enrique Lee (SP-Scranton), 3.44 WAR
AL Rookie of the Year
  • Antonio Frandsen (DH-Ottawa), 9.91 WAR
  • Nyjer Haney (SP-San Juan), 1.01 WAR
  • Tarrik Crawford (SP-Tacoma), 2.55 WAR
  • Dummy Daniels (DH-Milwaukee), 4.05 WAR
  • Kike Solarte (2B-Nashville), 2.31 WAR
NL Rookie of the Year
  • Joey Hurst (SS-Columbus), 3.66 WAR
  • Howie Yarbrough (RP-Charlotte), 4.54 WAR
  • Richard Wanatabe (1B-Montgomery), 2.85 WAR
  • Sammy Urrutia (RP-Louisville), 0.08 WAR
  • Henderson Rathjen (2B-Columbus), 2.79 WAR
For the past few seasons, I have used the previous year's voting results as a guide for my HOF ballot. This season I will continue that trend, but I am going to use a different metric to evaluate the top options in terms of HOF worthiness. Previously, I have used the Career Standard Score (a Bill James invention) which does a nice job. However, I use Wins Above Replacement for other blog posts and it's more easily understood than some of Bill James' other creations so I figured that I should use it for this if possible.

Last night, I discovered a Runs Created calculator that I can plug the career numbers of the hitters into and then convert from Runs Created to WAR quite easily. I also have access to a WAR calculator for pitchers, but putting career numbers into that gives me wacky results. Neither will method will match the more precise method that I have used for other blog posts exactly, but it is much easier for full careers and will be a good indicator of HOF-worthiness. Without further ado, here's a look at last years results and a WAR-centered rundown of the top candidates this season.


Above are the results from last season's voting...nobody made the cut, but there were certainly a number of deserving candidates:

Pablo Macias: 62.10 offensive WAR, -10.25 defensive WAR = 51.85 total WAR
Pinky Curtis: not on ballot this season
Maikel Romano: 53.70 offensive WAR, 1.70 defensive WAR = 55.40 total WAR
Don Webster: 1.95 defensive WAR, Career Standard Score 50.9
Midre Tarasco: 0.77 defensive WAR, Career Standard Score 45.6
David Campos: 0.85 defensive WAR, Career Standard Score 23.3

Now that I have some WAR data to work with, we need to look at how the players on the ballot stack up against the current competition. Here is a look at the names brought up on World Chat:

Yogi Gray: 54.00 offensive WAR, -1.08 defensive WAR = 52.92 total WAR
Raul Chantres: 61.50 offensive WAR, -22.98 defensive WAR = 38.52 total WAR
Gregorio Astacio: 50.90 offensive WAR, 13.57 defensive WAR = 64.47 total WAR
Elian Rojas Jr. : 45.90 offensive WAR, 14.96 defensive WAR = 60.86 total WAR
Fred Sparks: -0.74 defensive WAR, Career Standard Score 20.9

Last but not least, let's compare all of the candidates to those guys who have already made the cut. Using the metrics I've been tracking above, here's a look at the position-by-position averages for current Plumpy HOF members:

--> Average Hall of Fame 1B = 88.88 WAR
--> Average Hall of Fame 3B = 55.49 WAR
--> Average Hall of Fame RF = 70.52 WAR
--> Average SP Career Standard Score = 52.5
--> Average RP Career Standard Score = 22.1

Based on those averages, the following players are above "Hall of Fame average" and definitely deserve to be inducted:
  • David Campos
As of right now, the rest of the field stacks up as follows in terms of WAR:
  • Gregorio Astacio (64.47)
  • Elian Rojas Jr (60.47)
  • Maikel Romano (55.40)
  • Yogi Gray (52.92)
  • Pablo Macias (51.85)
  • Alexi Franco (41.90)
  • Raul Chantres (38.52)
  • Guy Gorzelanny (35.96)
  • Rod DeJean (28.74)
  • Otto Dillon (28.20)
  • Mariano Infante (-3.33)
***MORE WILL BE ADDED TO THIS LIST IF THEY COME UP ON WORLD CHAT AND/OR I HAVE TIME TO DO THE MATH!
Since this world and one that I commish (Around The Horn) are on exactly the same schedule, I'm quite a bit later in posting my annual look at the awards ballot using WAR totals. If people are interested, I think my next project is going to be one of two things: a draft review using advanced metrics like WAR, or an investigation into career WAR. For now, though, here's what this season's ballot looks like:

AL MVP

  • Jose Cedeno (DH-Houston), 8.33 WAR
  • Dayton Tanner (RF-Syracuse), 6.84 WAR
  • Preston Workman (3B-Buffalo), 4.95 WAR
  • Juan Carlos Lugo (1B-Tacoma), 6.15 WAR
  • Orlando Rienzo (RF-Ottawa), 5.55 WAR
NL MVP
  • Julio Gonzales (C-Scranton), 6.25 WAR
  • Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 6.83 WAR
  • Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 6.26 WAR
  • Nigel Sugawara (3B-Salt Lake City), 5.97 WAR
  • Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 8.63 WAR
AL Cy Young
  • Oswaldo Bravo (SP-Helena), 5.49 WAR
  • Patrick Yarnall (SP-Buffalo), 3.53 WAR
  • Bruce Cosart (SP-Helena), 5.71 WAR
  • Didi Sanchez (RP-San Juan), 0.94 WAR
  • Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartliff), 0.87 WAR
NL Cy Young
  • Quinton Strickland (SP-Montgomery), 6.07 WAR
  • Yasiel Arias (SP-Scranton), 5.64 WAR
  • Chick Paredes (SP-Anaheim), 5.02 WAR
  • Brandon Peters (SP-Toronto), 4.76 WAR
  • Edward Coomer (SP-Montgomery), 3.47 WAR
AL Rookie of the Year
  • Cy Medina (RP-San Juan), -0.88 WAR
  • Charles Rua (LF-Syracuse), 3.78 WAR
  • Mike Snyder (LF-Toledo), 5.15 WAR
  • Lars Oberacker (CF-Chicago, AL), 4.95 WAR
  • Louie Jose (P-Milwaukee), 2.31 WAR
NL Rookie of the Year
  • Peter Brow (SP-St. Louis), 2.65 WAR
  • JC Franklin (3B-Montgomery), 3.75 WAR
  • JP Mercado (3B-Cleveland), 5.09 WAR
  • Jerry Bennett (RP-San Francisco), 0.91 WAR
  • Ray Corcoran (SP-Vancouver), 1.33 WAR
This is a bit later than I typically post this, but I finally have some time to go through the end of season awards ballot to evaluate each of the candidates using Wins Above Replacement. These figures are park-adjusted, and the pitcher's totals are also based on the Fielding Independent Pitching statistic (as well as batting prowess-or lack thereof- where appropriate), so I've long felt these are the best representation of individual performance that are (somewhat) easily derived from the information provided to us by WIS. Here's how this year's ballot breaks down:

AL MVP

  • Luther Stowers (LF-New York), 11.39 WAR 
  • Jose Cedeno (DH-Atlanta), 7.78 WAR
  • Chip Kinsler (3B-Buffalo), 7.79 WAR
  • Peter Reininger (3B-Atlanta), 4.42 WAR
  • Orlando Rienzo (RF-Ottawa), 6.05 WAR
NL MVP
  • Lewis Hatley (SS-Scranton),  8.03 WAR
  • Livan Guerrero (RF-Anaheim), 5.97 WAR
  • Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 8.36 WAR
  • Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 5.83 WAR
  • Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.88 WAR
AL Cy Young
  • David Giavotella (SP-Atlanta), 4.57 WAR
  • Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Atlanta), 4.53 WAR
  • Tsuyoshi Suh (SP-Buffalo), 4.95 WAR
  • Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.81 WAR
  • Victor Olmedo (SP, Chicago-AL), 4.30 WAR
NL Cy Young
  • Ryan Ingram (SP-Anaheim), 4.45 WAR
  • Yasiel Arias (SP-Scranton), 3.52 WAR
  • Chick Prades (SP-Anaheim), 3.31 WAR
  • Xander Cruz (St. Louis), 4.33 WAR
  • Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 4.54 WAR
AL Rookie of the Year
  • Pat Brasier (1B-Nashville), 3.78 WAR
  • Rubi Altuve (C, Chicago-AL), 2.52 WAR
  • Shunsuke Matsui (RF-Atlanta), 2.43 WAR
  • Herman Palmer (1B-Milwaukee), 5.48 WAR
  • Ellis Vettleson (RF-Milwaukee), 3.76 WAR
NL Rookie of the Year
  • Chick Prades (SP-Anaheim), 3.31 WAR
  • Victor Bennett (SP-Jackson), 1.55 WAR
  • Yean Carlos Manzanillo (RP-Tampa Bay), 0.08 WAR
  • Fernando Astacio (SP-San Francisco), 1.24 WAR
  • Calvin Krol (LF-St. Louis), 2.48 WAR

Season 50

Last season, we got three very deserving candidates into the Hall of Fame, although there are still quite a few other deserving candidates left to go. Below is a look at the voting results from last season: 
Looking at that list, let’s take a look at the “next five up” to see if the top five non-elected vote getters from last season are worthy of getting in this season: 

Player
Career Standard Score
HOF Worthiness
Pablo Macias
63.90 points as RF
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Desi Pena
56.90 points as RF
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Don Webster
50.90 points as SP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Midre Tarasco
45.60 points as SP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”
Ringo Oliver
25.80 points as RP
“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Since all of those guys are HOF-worthy, that makes this year’s voting easy and this post quite short☺