Five years have passed since the Season 40 Plumpy Draft and it’s a decent time to evaluate the top 10 picks of the draft. I’m going to borrow from Mel Kiper Jr and assign a grade for each of the picks, and one pick outside of the top 10 that I find to be spectacular. I can’t say I have reviewed all picks so I certainly could have missed a golden one, but I feel pretty darn good about the player I’m calling out. For the team making each selection I am showing the current franchise the player is affiliated with (due to change in owner). As an example, the first pick Ozzie Woods was selected by Houston, which is now Florida. In all other cases I am showing the original franchise that made the selection regardless of trades subsequent to the draft.
1. Ozzie Woods, SS Florida Fire Frogs
Grade: B-
Woods never signed and we can’t see his ratings, but this turned into the #2 pick in the Season 41 draft which was Devon Clark, 2B.
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With a #1 or #2 pick I’m always hoping for a Hall-of-Famer. Clark will be a great 2B for many years but with such a high pick I would rather he have a bigger bat at 2B, play a premium position like CF or SS, or be a SP. He will not be a Hall-of-Famer.
2. Victor DeRojas, LF Kansas City Kilroy
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Grade: B+
Career Slash Line: .269/.332/.513
DeRojas can mash, with HR totals of 40 and 46 in two full seasons and another 30 2/3 of the way through season 45. I tend to believe his season 45 is an outlier with lower output and that he will in general have an OPS closer to .900 most seasons. He is held back by his low splits and lack of speed. He plays plus defense in LF and was a solid but not spectacular pick.
3. Seth Lewis, 3B Mexico City Monarchs
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Grade: C
Career Slash Line: .276/.327/.393
Lewis is a plus defender at 3B but carries a mediocre bat and will eventually be asking for a very costly contract with an 85 overall rating mostly driven by Durability, Health, and Makeup. He smacked 37 doubles in Season 44 but has totaled 26 HR’s in essentially two full seasons combined, which is not enough power to be considered a top-end 3B.
4. Nipsey Henley, 3B Salt Lake City Revival
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Grade: C-
Career Slash Line: .253/.325/.391
Henley was touted as a SS coming out of the draft but his defensive ratings at 82/78/87/79 make him no better than a plus defender at 3B. While his power grades out better than Lewis, his lack of splits drive his hitting value lower than a typical top-tier 3B. He finally made his ML debut this season at 27 so it’s possible his hitting turns around a bit, but when compared to a few of the next couple of picks in the draft immediately after Henley he looks to be a disappointment.
5. Ed Foster, 2B Toledo Scots
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Grade: B
Career Slash Line: .265/.351/.410
Foster is another player who will be commanding a huge pay raise someday down the line…with an 88 overall rating propped up by high Dur, Health, Patience, and Makeup he will have high demands. He would be a potential HOF’er at 2B if his Range and Glove were 5 points higher – as it is, he’s a minus defensively at 2B but passable – and as long as he is passable, his OBP and stealing capability help provide decent value as a #5 pick. Would Toledo trade Foster to Mexico City for Lewis? I think not.
6. Marlon DeJean, DH Buffalo Lake Effect
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Grade: A-
Career Slash Line: .265/.354/.516
DeJean is a big bopper, clubbing 58 HR’s in parts of two seasons and will likely top a 1.000 OPS multiple times in his career. He’s 23 years old and will be plugged in as a DH versus RHP for the next 10 seasons in all likelihood, with the ability to play full-time DH in the playoffs. He likely was shown as a Catcher in the draft but his ratings are too low to be anything but an emergency backup. This pick was very good, however I find it hard to believe you would take a DH bat, no matter how big, over a #1/#2 starter – and at this point in the draft not a single pitcher had been taken!
7. Eugenio James, SP Montreal Magma
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Grade: A+
Career Pitching Line: 38-23, 1.18/3.75
The first pitcher finally goes off the board…and he’s a winner. With 80 Stam and 31 Dur, James can likely pitch close to 250 innings every season and will be a factor in the Magma rotation for a long time to come. His splits don’t blow anyone away, his secondary pitches are average, however his Control/Velocity/GB rating are all great to elite. He is not as overwhelming as many pitchers I have seen go in the top 3 of different drafts, but to grab the best pitcher in the draft at #7 was a great play.
8. Glenn Ennis, SP Kansas City Kilroy (Drafted by San Antonio Forgotten Alamos)
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Grade: B-
Career Pitching Line: 36-40, 1.50/5.35
Despite these rough numbers early in his career, this is a decent pick. He’ll be able to throw nearly 275 innings each season with 99 Stam and 29 Dur – however, he is certainly underperforming and I expect a bit better from him in future seasons. It provides an interesting case study in what difference a few points make on some key pitching ratings. When comparing Ennis to James in the following categories, Ennis is +/- (better/worse) as follows (Control, Vs L, vs R, Vel, GB, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5): (11), 0, 3, (14), (7), (8), 0, (23), (2), (14). I think the 8-point difference in P1 especially when compared with the combined lower ratings of P2-P5 of 39 points tell us most of the story. Hmmm…I’m considering moving this grade down a bit…47 points lower in pitching ratings is a LOT!
In a sad turn of events for the San Antonio franchise, Ennis was traded in season 42 for one year of Sherman Snow
https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7132080
Snow was 19-7 with a 1.16/2.62 line but left as a free agent and did not lead the team to the playoffs.
9. Julius Kinney, SP Tampa Bay Barracudas
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Grade: A
Career Pitching Line: 3-2, 1.39/5.11 (only 44 IP)
This was a great pick at #9 – he’s a solid #2 starter and is still showing improvement in his ratings. This is normally what you would find as a top-5 pick – while he’s off to a little bit of a rough start in his first season of pro play, he has excellent control, velocity, and P1/P2 (Sinker/Slider). A quick note on the term “#2 starter”: like a few other analysts out there, I believe there are really only a handful, no more than 8 or so, true “#1 starters”. Kenney can very well top out a rotation but won’t be the guy you fear facing 3 times in a 7 game series – but he’s going to be a very solid SP for a long time.
10. Fergie Cooke, CF Chicago FrozenKoreans
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Grade: A+
Career Slash Line: .307/.373/.503 44/54 SB’s
Cooke is off to a monster start in the Majors – playing plus defense at CF and is on his way to several Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. His glove hasn’t developed enough to play at SS but he could play there in a pinch. Cooke is proof of why split ratings matter so much – when combined with a 80 eye rating, it doesn’t matter that his contact is only 48 – he gets on base often, and when he does he steals at a 81% success rate. This was an excellent pick and a real steal at #10.
Schnoogens’ Pick of the Draft
This last draft result is my favorite post-10 pick – someone grabbing value or a particular set of skills a little bit further in the draft.
Pick #19: Daniel Brumfield, C/DH Tampa Bay Barracudas
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Grade: A+
Career Slash Line: .332/.426/.628 with 43 HR
I LOVE these kinds of players. They are hard to find, and when you get one on your team it’s a kind of player you never forget. Brumfield’s core 5 hitting ratings are 93/99/96/79/81 – which is HOF-worthy on any player and some of the best totals I have ever seen. However, Brumfield will almost definitely NOT make it into the HOF…but why? He likely won’t accumulate the accolades and large totals that HOF voters look for because his Dur rating is a measly 30 – which limits him to about 250 AB’s per season. This is also likely the reason he fell to pick #19 – he’s not an every day player and his value would be completely hampered in the NL (only useful as a PH). In the AL he can DH/C in the regular season against LHP and then be a full-time player in the playoffs when fatigue is not a concern. He is going to put impressive numbers for years to come.
In glancing at just these 11 picks I highlighted, one conclusion I have drawn is that Tampa Bay “won” the draft in season 40. They grabbed A-rated SP Kinney with pick #9 and then A+ rated C/DH Brumfield at #19. Owner Seventy_77 must be consistently drafting well – as he has taken his team from being mismanaged for seven seasons before his arrival to now being a consistent playoff contender.
Thanks for reading!
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