I have gotten a couple of questions about the MWR and/or if it was applied during Season 72, so I wanted to do something similar to what I did a couple of seasons ago and revive the blog with a transparent explanation of how/why the various penalties have (or as the case may be have not) been imposed. The post linked in the previous sentence will also give a brief recent-history lesson of Plumpy leadership. 

For those who did not click the link, here's the short version: I took over as commish in Season 67 and we played Seasons 67-69 as a private world. We then went public for Season 70 only and reinstated the same set of Private World Rules at the start of Season 71. That timeline plus the structure of our MWR means that the following scenarios are the only ones where a MWR violation may have happened since the count restarted at the beginning of Season 71: 

• One-year violation in Season 71
• One-year violation in Season 72 (this season) 
• Two-year violation of Season 71+72

I will admit that real life has been busier than normal for me during Seasons 71 and 72, so I'm going to take a scenario-by-scenario approach to make sure I didn't overlook a MWR violation during that time: 

One-Year Violations in Season 71 (Fewer than 55 wins):  Philadelphia (51) and Toledo (53) fall into this category, which means they should have spent $10M or fewer on prospects this season. 

One-Year Violations in Season 72, aka this season (Fewer than 55 wins): Toledo (50), Oklahoma City (50) and Iowa City (50) fall into this category. Iowa City has informed me they will be departing next year, so Toledo and Oklahoma City will be limited to a max of $10M in prospects in Season 73. 

Two-Year Violations of S71+S72 (Fewer than 120 wins total): Boston (117), Iowa City (113), Salt Lake (111) and Toledo (92) fall into this category. Iowa City and Toledo repeat from above, so the new additions to the list from this category are Boston and Salt Lake. 

So the final list of franchises that have not met at least one aspect of the MWR since we started counting again at the beginning of Season 71 is: 

• Philadelphia - should have been limited to $10M this season but budgeted $20M....however, they've only spent $9,860,000 on prospects (IFA+Draft) as of this writing, which stays within the limit set by the world rule. They cleared the barrier for this season and the two-season total, so no further penalties will be imposed until the next violation. 
• Toledo - should have been limited to $10M this season but budgeted $13M...however, they've only spent $9,560,000 on prospects (IFA+Draft) as of this writing, which stays within the limit set by the world rule. They will be limited to $10M again next season for the two-year violation but will not be penalized further than that.  
• Oklahoma City - will be limited to $10M in prospect money for Season 73
• Iowa City - departing before Season 73
• Boston - will be limited to $10M in prospect money for Season 73
• Salt Lake - will be limited to $10M in prospect money for Season 73

 It has been a while since I've written anything for the blog, and some vibrant HOF discussions both in some of my other worlds and on potential suggestions on how to change up the process in the future on the Hardball Dynasty Discord server got me wondering what those might look like here. The two most notable potential changes: shifting away from "percent of 32 owners" to "percentage of owners who have voted" as well as having a criteria for staying on the ballot at all to mimic the MLB process. 

As a case study to see how this would work (and how I feel about it in practice), let's look at how the results of this year's HOF voting would have changed if those two rules were in place. Let's start by reminding ourselves of the results from this year's voting: 

What does that tell us? First of all, there were a total of 114 HOF votes cast this year, which represents 22.8 five-vote ballots. In other words, 23 of our 32 owners voted this year and one of those 23 people only used four of their available five votes. So how would that change things? Let's take it one step at a time, and start with the good vibes. 

If we say that a player needs 50% of the owners who voted to be elected to the HOF, this year the bar would be 23 * 50% = 11.5, or rounded up to 12 votes in order to gain election. Our class of Walker, Yarbrough, and Salas all still get in (but do so comfortably rather than Salas just squeaking in)...but now Almanzar is just one vote short rather than six. That all feels pretty right to me. 

Now comes the less happy, but to me more interesting, angle: Who would come off the ballot if we were to institute a cut line? The MLB requirement is to show up on 5% of ballots cast to stay next season. So in our case 23 voters * 5% = 1.15 votes, meaning anyone who got either 0 or 1 vote this season would be dropped next year. 

Where does that leave us exactly? With a pretty clear (and luckily fairly short) list of players who received between 5% and the needed 50% of votes to stay on the ballot but did not get "the phone call" this season. Those guys are: 

1. Luigi Almanzar: 11 of 23 votes
2. Felipe Soria: 9 of 23 votes
3. Christopher Prades: 7 of 23 votes
4. Henderson Jackson: 5 of 23 votes
5. Quinton Strickland: 4 of 23 votes
6. Tyson Cowgill: 3 of 23 votes
7. Edward Coomer: 3 of 23 votes
8. Walt Smith: 2 of 23 votes
9. Jensen Gonzalez: 2 of 23 votes
10. Bruce Cosart: 2 of 23 votes
11. Jeremy Kershaw: 2 of 23 votes

Those eleven names, plus any first-year candidates in Season 73 are the guys that I feel we should focus on when trying to determine who to elect to the Plumpy HOF next year. I'm not (necessarily) saying they all deserve to get in...I haven't taken that deep a dive yet. But these are the guys whose names would show up on your ballot if Plumpy were to adopt MLB's voting rules. 

 Last season, we were able to elect Antonio Frandsen to the HOF. He was certainly deserving, but in my opinion, there were a number of others who could and should have joined him. As a result, this season I am going to try to compile a full list of HOF-worthy players in this post so that we can figure out just how much of a logjam we have. I still believe that the metric I have used traditionally (Importance Score, which is a mix of WAR/year and bonuses for individual awards) is the best blend of personal and team achievements, but Bill James' HOF Monitor Score is nearly as good and also quicker to calculate. Therefore, I am going to break down this year's ballot into tiers using that metric to see where we should consolidate our voting efforts:

I Should Have Been In Years Ago (130+ HOFM Score)

• Chick Prades, 186 points  (got my vote last year)
• Randy Pose, 178 points (got my vote last year) 
• Alex Salas, 178 points 
• Julio Gonzalez, 164.5 points
• Jose Cedeno, 150 points
• Timothy Walker, 141 points
• Riccio Olivia, 135 points 
• Maicer Rosales, 135 points

Definitely HOF Worthy (100-129 HOFM)

• Shane Porter, 129 points
• Henderson Jackson, 127.5 points
• Luigi Almanzar, 124 points 
• Quinton Strickland, 122 points
• Noel Strop, 121 points
• Dixie Goforth, 119.5 points
• Tomas Cairo, 114.5 points
• Enrique Lee, 110 points
• Edward Coomer, 107 points
• Miguel Silva, 107 points

Borderline HOF Case (70-99 HOFM)

• Bruce Cosart, 96 points
• Julius Kaufman, 93 points   (got my vote last year) 
• Al James, 92 points 
• Quilvio Noesi, 88 points
• Orlando Rienzo, 87.5 points
• Jeremy Kershaw, 85 points
• Adam Maybin, 84 points 
• Lee Mouton, 80.5 points 
• Everett Stewart, 75 points 

I Have To Have Another Reason To Be Elected (50-69 HOFM)

• Charles Mitchell, 69 points 
• Renato Alvarado, 63 points
• Marlon DeJean, 62.5 points 
• Mac Zhang, 57.5 points

Not Sure How I Made It Onto The Ballot (49 or less HOFM)

• Kiki Zurbaran, 48 points 
• Freddie Daly, 35 points 
• Ronn Shannon, 27.5 points 
• Bernie Cooper, 16 points 
• Sammy Delgado, 9 points 

 As I mentioned in the World Chat, we dropped the ball a bit last season and didn't elect anyone to the Hall of Fame here in Plumpy. I take quite a bit of responsibility for that as I had stuff going on in real life and it was Year 1 of my Commissionership here so I personally dropped the ball and also wasn't able to get a blog post up on the subject. I've seen a great response in terms of activity since I made a public plea on the World Chat for HOF voting, so I just wanted to take a minute to highlight the players whose names have come up and if I have time I'll move onto the other typical categories that I look at (players closest to election previously and first-year candidates.) 

Quick reminder that the metric I have found most useful is one that I call "Importance Score," which combines WAR/year and awards (personal accomplishments) with World Series Rings (team accomplishments) to give a good, holistic picture of a player's career. Anyone who reaches double digits on the Importance Score scale is worthy of eventually getting into the HOF...I have a suspicion that we will have more than five of those guys, so we should prioritize the ones who have been on the ballot for awhile and/or have the highest scores. Let's see where things stand: 

Guys Who Have Been Mentioned in World Chat

• Antonio Frandsen- 13.7 Importance Score (and there are a couple of seasons of data missing) 
• Alex Salas* - not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Randy Pose* - 12.7 Importance Score (and there are several seasons of data missing) 
• Quinton Strickland* - 3.3 Importance Score (with a bunch of seasons of data missing)
• Julius Kaufman* -12.8 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Chick Prades - 21.0 Importance Score (with several seasons of data missing) 
• Gorkys Garces* - 7.2 Importance Score (with a bunch of seasons of data missing) 
• York Bonds- 8.8 Importance Score (with several seasons of data missing) 
• Kiki Zurbaran- 4.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

Guys Who Have Come Closest To Election Previously

• The five names above that have asterisks* next to their names

First Year Candidates

• Frandsen (see above)
• Tomas Cairo - 3.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Quilvio Noesi - 3.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Everett Stewart - 6.5 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

The Rest of the Ballot

• Renato Alvarado-no data yet
• Denny Burriss-no data yet
• Jose Cedeno- 7.4 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing) 
• Marlon DeJean-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet 
• Dixie Goforth-no data yet
• Julio Gonzalez- 8.6 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing)
• Henderson Jackson-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Jeremy Kershaw-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Shane Porter-no data yet
• Chuck Richardson-no data yet
• Orlando Rienzo- 3.7 Importance Score (a few seasons missing) 
• Maicer Rosales-not enough data to calculate Importance Score yet
• Ronn Shannon-no data yet
• Miguel Silva-no data yet 
• Noel Strop-no data yet
• Rafael Torrez-no data yet
• Mac Zheng-no data yet 
• Luigi Almanzar- 4.2 Importance Score (several seasons missing) 
• George Bermudez- 5.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Edward Coomer - 9.5 Importance Score (a bunch of seasons missing) 
• Bruce Cosart- 12.7 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Freddie Daly- 1.2 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Sammy Delgado- 0.4 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Santos Espinosa- 2.1 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Enrique Lee- 8.7 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Julian Matos- 6.6 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Adam Maybin- 8.0 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Riccio Oliva- 8.4 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR
• Victor Olmedo- 7.9 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR 
• Pep Wanatabe- 6.5 Importance Score w/Estimated Career WAR

This leads me to...

Based on the research above, the following guys definitely deserve votes: 1) Frandsen 2) Pose 3) Kaufman 4) Prades. There are also a handful of guys listed above that I'm sure will deserve to be elected once I have a more complete picture, but for now I'm going to stick with those four and then dig a little deeper into the rest of them. 

As I prepared to write this post, I realized it's been just over a real-life year since anything got published....so it makes a lot of sense that the goal of this post is to sort out exactly what this league has been through in the last three seasons (aka about a real life year.) We've seen a commish change, a decent amount of league turnover, we went public for a hot minute and then returned to private...and now we're here. While I type this we are down to our final opening prior to starting Season 68 and I wanted to get the MWR question sorted out before we fill and have to deal with budgets (and any potential MWR violations that may come up.) 

Before we get to crunching the numbers, here's a quick recap of events as best I remember: Season 66 was pajammies' last in charge as commish of a private Plumpy world. I then took over as commish when we rolled into Season 67, where we started out private and then went public to fill the last few spots before reverting back to being a private league to play out Season 67. Now, here we are in Season 68 with one spot left to fill...so I feel pretty good about our ability to stay private the whole time. 

Since we never had a full public season, I feel the easiest (and most logical) approach is to apply the MWR to all previous seasons. Given that we are looking at a four-year window, that would be S64-67 for our upcoming budgeting purposes. Let's take it bullet-by-bullet to see what issues may come up:

One Year MWR: 55 Wins

• The Helena Hellas (foodew) were in violation of this, but foodew did not return so this a moot point.

Two Year MWR: 120 Wins 

• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 119 wins in S66 and S67 combined...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Three Year MWR: 185 Wins

• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 179 wins in S65-S67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Four Year MWR: 260 Wins 

• The Scranton Boll Weevils (zeustis01) talled 258 wins from S64-67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 
• The Salt Lake City Blue Lake (gnocc) tallied 227 wins from S64-67...this is something that a decision will need to be made about. 

Based on the data above, there are two potential courses of action we can take: 1) apply the MWR to all of the past four seasons and impose the $10M Prospect Payroll cap on zeustis and gnocc. 2) Re-Start the MWR clock from the moment we re-privatized, which would be the start of S67, and have everyone on fairly even footing going forward. 

I say fairly even footing because doing this would mean that the number of wins needed in this upcoming season would still be higher for those who won less often than others last season, thereby giving them a slightly higher hill to climb this year without directly imposing the prospect cap penalty right away. For full transparency's sake, this is the way I am leaning towards ruling at the moment. Here's a quick rundown of how many wins everyone would need this season to avoid violating the MWR: 

• Indianapolis (FW_K) = 59 Wins
• Salt Lake City (gnocc) = 59 Wins
• Scranton (zeustis) = 59 Wins
• Philadelphia (zyrion) = 57 Wins
• Everyone Else = 55 Wins 

After doing that math, I am even more inclined to make this our course of action.  I do, however, realize that I rule at the will of the people and want to be as transparent as possible in this process.  

 I recently posted in the World Chat that having the bases loaded with nobody out seems like a guarantee to end up being a negative result...and I've noticed it going both ways. So much so that every time I'm reading the box score and see the bases loaded early in the inning the words that go through my mind are ones that WIS turns into **** if I were to try to type them out 😂 

This is a trend that I've noticed for awhile and I've thought about writing a blog post about it several times but finally have the time to dig in a little as well as the prompting thanks to it happening yet again in the PM game today. Here's how I'm going to investigate the difference between MLB and Plumpy: this win expectancy finder tells us how many runs a team can expect to score in a given scenario. Apparently, bases loaded and nobody out has produced no runs scored 13.43% of the time during MLB seasons that occurred between 1903 and 2023...so now to compare my team with that tidbit I just need to scan through the box scores and see what the Trailblazers' conversion rate is. 

While reading through this season's box scores for that purpose, the first time that I remember this thought occurring to me was actually a bases loaded with one out scenario. A couple clicks of a button reveals that MLB teams fail to score in that scenario 32.83% of the time. Below is a list of the times that my Trailblazers have been in either of those scenarios so far this season on both offense and defense:

Bases Loaded, 0 Outs

• 2/19 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 1 run allowed
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 10th = 1 run scored (with 2 outs) 
• 2/23 pm2 cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 5th = 4 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though) 
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 8th = 0 runs scored

Offensive totals: Held scoreless in 4 out of 5 opportunities (80%) while MLB mark is 13.43%...probably just a small sample size but good to know I'm not totally crazy for having this theory 

Defensive Totals: Held opponents scoreless in 2 out of 4 opportunities (50%) with MLB mark of 13.43%....at least our defense is also doing better than MLB defenses 🤷‍♂️

Bases Loaded, 1 Out 

• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 4th = 4 runs scored
• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 10th = 1 run scored 
• 2/18 am cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/18 am cycle: Top 9th = 2 runs scored
• 2/18 pm cycle: Bottom 7th = 3 runs allowed
• 2/18 pm2 cycle: Bottom 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/19 pm cycle: Top 5th = 5 runs scored
• 2/20 pm2 cycle: Top 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 7th = 0 runs scored
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored
• 2/21 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/23 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 0 runs scored
• 2/23 pm cycle: Top 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/24 pm2 cycle: Top 8th = 1 run allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 3rd = 3 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored

Offensive totals: held scoreless in 4 of 10 opportunities (40%) while the MLB mark is 32.83%...this is a larger sample size than I'd expect in just over 20 games, but at least the conversion rate is fairly similar to the MLB mark 

Defensive totals: held opponents scoreless in 4 of 7 opportunities (57%) with the MLB mark being 32.83%....not sure if we have gotten lucky, have a good defense or a bit of both 🤔 

 There has already been some chatter about who should get the nod to Virtual Cooperstown on the World Chat, so I am going to factor that into my process for this season. Typically I would focus on the five guys (I think I just made myself a little hungry...) who got the highest vote totals that were still short of election. Then, I'd check to see if any first-year ballot guys are worthy of taking the place of those five. This season, those are going to be steps two and three. Step one will be to take a look at the numbers behind the careers of those players who have already generated discussion on the chat boards. That list is as follows: 

1. Jhoulys Sosa
2. Luther Stowers
3. Enny Cayones
4. Tsuyoshi Lo 
5. Juan Escuela 
6. Lewis Hatley
7. Gorkys Garces 

With more options than votes to use even just from that list, I think steps two and three should take a bit of a back seat until we see if everyone above truly is HOF worthy. To judge HOF worthiness I am going to continue using what I have termed "Importance Score" which is WAR/season with bonus points given for rings, MVP Awards and/or Cy Young awards as well as years with 4+ WAR. 

Since I started tracking that stat, it has become apparent that any score of 10+ is worthy of election to the HOF. All of that is a long way of saying I'll calculate that score for the seven guys above and see how many of them get a double digit result. Here's what I found: 

• J. Sosa = 18.9 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• L. Stowers = 23.5 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• E. Cayones = 23.6 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• T. Lo = 13.9 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• J. Escuela = 24.3 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• L. Hatley = 18.7 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 
• G. Garces = 9.20 Importance Score (and I don't have complete data) 

That data makes two things clear: I need to get some complete data to make sure those numbers hold up and also there are more than five deserving candidates on this year's ballot. Here are the five that I'm voting for right now: 

1. Juan Escuela: 24.3 Importance Score
2. Enny Cayones: 23.6 Importance Score
3. Luther Stowers: 23.5 Importance Score 
4. Jhoulys Sosa: 18.9 Importance Score
5. Lewis Hatley: 18.7 Importance Score

 I have been using some of the time that we've had due to the extended rollover to calculate Wins Above Replacement totals since the turn of the "decade" that started in Season 60. Currently I have 111 players in the database of people that I have fully calculated over the past five seasons, mostly from the Awards Ballots that I have been doing in other posts. I am going to post screenshots of my WAR spreadsheet in groups of 30 players below, and if you don't see a player that your are curious about send me a quick Trade Chat or post in the World Chat and I'll add in their data to this series later. Without further ado, here are players 1-30: 

Players 31-60: 

Players 61-90:

Players 91+:

A couple of quick housekeeping notes: 

• Players whose names are highlighted in gold are in the Hall of Fame
• The cities listed in the second to last column (last season) with asterisks have them because they are currently open franchises and I don't have access to their data until a new owner takes over
• My next step is to start looking at Career Wins Above Replacement, and I will start at the top of this list and work down 
• This is just another reminder that all totals above are both park and position adjusted

 For the first time in a couple of seasons, I am going to be able to put together a Hall of Fame blog segment 😊 Since I wasn't able to (or maybe just forgot to) take a screenshot of the top five vote-getters who were not elected last season, I will start with the top five previous totals overall (listed under the "Hi" total on the extras HOF screen.) Those five are the following: Santiago Rivera, Gorkys Garces, Julius Kaufman, Esmailyn Johnson and Tsuyoshi Lo. 

Since I have positional breakdowns of what constitutes a Hall of Fame player here in Plumpy, the first thing I check on is what position each guy qualifies for in terms of HOF candidacy (aka which position did he play most often during his career.) Rivera and Garces are both CF, Kaufman is a SP, Johnson is a 2B and Lo is a 1B. Here is how they compare to current HOF'ers at their positions: 

Center Field

Slam Dunk HOFer: 99 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 79 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 59 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 39 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 38 or fewer Estimated WAR

Santiago Rivera: Only four seasons of Park Adjusted data

Gorkys Garces: 19 Park Adjusted WAR in 6 seasons of data = 3.2 avg = No Case (for now)

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Julius Kaufman: 82 Estimated WAR = No Case

First Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 73 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 33 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 32 or fewer Estimated WAR

Tsuyoshi Lo: 34 Park Adjusted WAR in 7 seasons of data = 4.9 avg = Weak HOF case (for now)

Third Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 76 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 56 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 36 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 16 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 15 or fewer Estimated WAR

Chip Kinsler: No Data Yet

Lewis Hatley: 57 Park Adjusted WAR in 12 seasons of data = 4.7 avg = Strong HOF case (for now)

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Based on the data that I currently have (seen above), Johnson and Lo are worthy candidates and will get two of my votes. As I write this, people have already started chiming in about their votes and so my next step is to look at the other players that people are considering to see which of them are also worthy candidates. The new names that have been mentioned so far are the following: Chip Kinsler and Odalis Marmol. Kinsler is a 3B and Marmol is an RF. After making a strong HOF case, Marmol will get my third vote and I'll gather more data on those listed above who I don't have enough information on yet. 

 My goal for the past couple of seasons has been to use the "Importance Score" which uses a combination of WAR and bonus points for things like leading the league in certain categories to determine who to vote for. Unfortunately, so far I've only gotten as far as the Wins Above Replacement totals in previous seasons. This year, I've gotten the WAR totals done and have the research done for who has led the league in which categories as well so the chances that I'll be able to combine those this season are much higher. Here's what I've gotten so far...hopefully this helps with your ballot!

AL MVP

• Walt Smith (C-Salem), 8.44 WAR
• Orlando Esposito (3B-San Juan), 6.52 WAR
• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 8.26 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.62 WAR
• Marco Moss (1B-Toledo), 4.97 WAR

NL MVP

• Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.56 WAR
• Mateo Iglesias (1B-Tampa Bay), 9.50 WAR
• Abraham Wilson (RF-Tampa Bay), 8.07 WAR
• Asdrubal Lopez (LF-El Paso), 7.40 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Trenton), 7.49 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Bill Sutton (SP-Buffalo), 4.88 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 5.93 WAR
• Braulio Feliz (RP-San Juan), 1.14 WAR
• Sammy Crespo (SP-Nashville), 2.97 WAR
• Vitas Coello (SP-Buffalo), 4.83 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Mariano Pena (SP-Philadelphia), 8.05 WAR
• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Washington DC), 4.53 WAR
• Matthew Kennedy (SP-Pittsburgh), 4.98 WAR
• Howie Yarbrough (RP-Trenton), 3.18 WAR
• Gonzalez Mateo (SP-Philadelphia), 1.93 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Fritz Powell (3B-Cincinnati), 3.71 WAR
• Sammy Risley (1B-Syracuse), 2.65 WAR
• Elrond Millwood (SP-San Juan), 3.23 WAR
• Buddy Harris (RF-Tacoma), 1.94 WAR
• Corey Milton (LF-Toledo), 2.75 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Enrique Henriquez (LF-Tampa Bay), 6.42 WAR
• Al Hernandez (RF-Scranton), 3.34 WAR
• Esmerling Cervelli (3B-St. Louis), 4.14 WAR
• Tyson Lieber (RP-El Paso), -0.12 WAR
• Alex Bird (SP-Trenton), 4.02 WAR

 I have had time recently to update the "New Park Era" rankings for Wins Above Replacement (which looks at just the seasons we have played since they released new ballparks), so I've made sure to focus on the Awards winners and finalists from that span for that particular post...but that comes later. Right now, the goal is to focus on this season's award finalists to see who deserves to go home with the hardware. Here are how the various ballots stack up:

AL MVP

• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.71 WAR
• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 7.30 WAR
• Felipe Soria (RF-Salem), 6.38 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 5.03 WAR
• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 6.33 WAR

NL MVP

• Asdrubal Lopez (LF-El Paso), 8.63 WAR
• Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.83 WAR
• Abraham Wilson (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.30 WAR
• Ender Guerra (1B-Jacksonville), 6.00 WAR
• Jayson Cornelius (2B-Portland), 7.54 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Rodney Kelly (SP-Cheyenne), 7.92 WAR
• Sammy Crespo (SP-Nashville), 2.20 WAR 
• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.43 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.31 WAR
• Bill Williams (RP-San Juan), 1.64 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Mariano Pena (SP-Philadelphia), 6.02 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Washington), 4.18 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.46 WAR
• D'Angelo Ozuna (SP-Washington), 5.29 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 3.75 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Chief Sweeney (DH-Helena), 3.89 WAR
• Phil Lawley (RP-San Juan), 0.38 WAR
• Orlando Esposito (3B-San Juan), 3.79 WAR
• Max Cuddyer (1B-Kansas City), 2.00 WAR
• Edwar Diaz (SP-Buffalo), 2.52 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year 

• Gus Li (SP-Tampa Bay), 1.03 WAR
• Derek Nash (LF-St. Louis), 2.42 WAR
• Pedro Parraz (3B-Trenton), 2.48 WAR
• Albert Balentin (SP-San Francisco), 1.56 WAR
• Rusty Reese (1B-Scranton), -2.36 WAR

 For (I think) the third year in a row, I have forgotten to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. As a result, I will be using career-high vote totals to guide my voting and blog post this season rather than last year's results. Similar to the last few seasons, though, I will be using position-by-position standards to compare the candidates I take a look at to their peers to see how they stack up on a HOF scale. 

This year's first five candidates that I will look at are: Esmailyn Johnson (13 votes in S60), Donn Oliver (12 votes in S58), Darnell Curtis (12 votes in S56), Odalis Marmol (11 votes in S59) and Geraldo Terrero (9 votes in S57.) If any of them don't make the cut, there are a number of first-year guys who I will go back and evaluate. But first we need to start with the five from above, so here's how they stack up: 

Second Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer: 113 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Left Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 31 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case At All: 30 or fewer Estimated WAR

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Slam Dunk HOFer: 61 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 41 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 21 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 1 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: Less than 1 Estimated WAR

Darnell Curtis: 44 Estimated WAR = Definite HOFer

Right Fielders

Slam Dunk HOFer: 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 58 Estimated WAR 

Strong HOF Case: 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 17 or fewer Estimated WAR 

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 153 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 133 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 113 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 93 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 92 or fewer Estimated WAR

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case 

Yasiel Arias: 190 Estimated WAR = Slam Dunk HOFer

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer: 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer: 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case: 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case: 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case: 106 or fewer Estimated WAR

Pep Wanatabe: 85 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Since I make it a policy to vote for anyone in the top three categories, the five guys above will account for four of my votes. I will be passing on Terrero, even though I'm fairly sure I am the one who nominated him at some point a few seasons ago. As I mentioned above, my next move is to look at the first-year ballot guys: Denny Burriss, Rafael Torrez, Pep Wanatabe, Victor Olmedo, Julian Matos and Yasiel Arias. First up will be the pitchers, not only because their scores are faster to calculate but also because my guess is that Wanatabe and Arias have the best chance to be elected on the first go around. 

Arias actually has the best HOF case out of anyone that I've evaluated so far, Wanatabe had a solid career but the HOF numbers don't match up. As of now, my ballot will be Curtis, Johnson, Marmol, Oliver and Arias.  

 

 

 Just like last year, we are not quite at a point where I can factor in the data I began saving a few seasons ago with league leaders and real life was busy enough that I forgot to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. Oops. So, just like last year, I will use position-by-position Career WAR standards to determine how much of an argument each of the candidates has and then proceed from there. Using this process got Nigel Maybin inducted last season so hopefully it will get a few more deserving candidates over the line this time around. To start with I'll look at Odalis Marmol, Esmailyn Johnson and Miguel Tapies all of whom have previously received 10 HOF votes:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 106 Estimated WAR or Fewer

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

Second Base

Slam Dunk HOFer = 113+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 73 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 52 or fewer Estimated WAR

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case

Right Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 78 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 58 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 38 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 18 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 17 or fewer Estimated WAR

Odalis Marmol: 44 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case 

Based on that information, I'll be voting for Johnson and Marmol and looking to the rest of the ballot to fill up to three slots. The next group of players I will be looking at are players in the first year of eligibility (which you can tell by looking at the "extras" in the HOF Voting screen and looking for guys whose "high vote" season is this year.) This season there are two hitters who fall into that category: Danny Carter (LF) and Reid Blume (RF).  Using the standards seen above, Blume falls well short and Carter's case needs a bit of digging to make:

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 92+ Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 72 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 52 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 32 Estimated WAR

No HOF Case = 31 or fewer Estimated WAR

Danny Carter: 26 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case

As it turns out, Carter has no case for Virtual Cooperstown either, so I've still only used two of my five votes. This seems like a good season to give one of my votes to Tapies, who technically falls into the "No HOF Case" category but the bar at RP is currently very, very, very high due to there only being two guys at that position currently elected and his 102 Estimated WAR are the most that I've seen without getting elected and he is ahead of quite a few HOFers in that category. 

Since I am running low on time before voting closes and may or may not have enough free time to do any more WAR calculations, I take a quick look at the "extras" screen to see if anyone pops out at me as being potentially worthy of a vote in a somewhat down year...Lewis Hatley (3B) and his World Series Ring/MVP combo grab my attention on the hitter's side while Donne Giavotella and his 3 Cy Young Awards also pop out at me. Those two will get my final votes for now, and if I have the chance to crunch more numbers before voting closes my focus will be on them. 

 I still don't think we are quite at the point where people who were playing in the seasons where I have league leader data (Season 56-now) have retired yet, so the main metric I will be using is still Total Career WAR. However, I do have position-by-position data to compare each player with their closest peers in terms of HOF worthiness. Since I seem to have forgotten to take a screenshot of the top vote totals from last season, I am going to use the High Vote Total as a guide. The top five in that category are: Guillermo Gutierrez (16 votes in S54), Nigel Maybin (14 votes in S58), Miguel Tapies (11 votes in S55), Osvaldo Lee (8 votes in S54) and Geraldo Terrero/Roy Owen (5 votes in S57/S55 respectively.) 

Gutierrez is going to be considered a 1B for HOF purposes, Maybin is a SP, Tapies an RP, Lee also a 1B, Terrero is a starter and Roy Owen is a reliever. There have also been a few other names that have popped up in World Chat, so I'll evaluate them as well. They are: Odalis Marmol (RF), Esmailyn Johnson (2B), Chip Kinsler (3B) and Donne Giavotella (SP). Here's how they all stack up against HOF'ers at their individual positions:

First Basemen

Guillermo Gutierrez: 48 Park Adjusted Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Osvaldo Lee: 29 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Greg Forest

Starting Pitchers

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Donne Giavotella: 58 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Kordell Turner: 38 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Alan Henry: 19 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Gerald Grieve

Louie Sanchez

Relief Pitchers

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Roy Owen: 71 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Al Cabrera: 50 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case

Harold Aspromonte

Right Fielders

Odalis Marmol: 45 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Ramiro Guerrero: 21 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Second Basemen

Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Cristhian Milner 

Christopher Perry

Third Basemen

Chip Kinsler: 55 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated Career WAR = Weak HOF Case

Designated Hitters

Darnell Curtis: 43 Estimated Career WAR = Definite HOF'er

Left Fielders

Donn Oliver: 52 Estimated Career WAR = Strong HOF Case

Victor DeRojas: 28 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF Case at all

Otis Gold: 18 Estimated Career WAR = No HOF case at all

Adam Matthews

Shortstop

Eduardo Quintana 

 The annual Awards Voting blog post will once again utilize position and park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals, and I will also look into how several honorable mentions performed out of a matter of curiosity. I know I keep mentioning that I want to do a blog post on Career WAR, but I think that might be a little ways a way still. The good news is that I do have Estimated Career WAR totals for almost all of the HOF members, and then I'll start at the top of that list and work my way down when figuring out adjusted Career WAR totals. For now, we will continue to go season by season, starting with this year as seen below: 

AL Most Valuable Player

• Antonio Frandsen (DH-Montreal), 8.63 WAR
• Maicer Rosales (1B-Nashville), 6.59 WAR
• David Hill (1B-Salem), 5.76 WAR
• Howie Cornelius (1B-Buffalo), 5.47 WAR
• Marco Moss (1B-Milwaukee), 5.67 WAR

NL Most Valuable Player

• Pep Komatsu (LF-Pittsburgh), 6.185 WAR
• Joey Hurst (3B-Baltimore), 4.14 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-Houston), 6.188 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 4.46 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 3.73 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.51 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 4.94 WAR
• Quentin Strickland (SP-Montreal), 3.69 WAR
• Luigi Almanzar (SP-Montreal), 4.63 WAR
• Harry Beltre (SP-Montreal), 5.47 WAR

NL Cy Young

• Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Scranton), 5.30 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 4.16 WAR
• Peter Brow (SP-St. Louis), 4.67 WAR
• David Rooney (SP-Houston), 3.90 WAR
• Juan Escuela (SP-Little Rock), 3.58 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Antonio Suzuki (LF-Buffalo), 5.29 WAR
• Billy Linden (DH-Nashville), 2.02 WAR
• Derek Malone (RP-Salem), 0.98 WAR
• Cooper Posey (1B-Madison), 1.21 WAR
• Brennan Gil (LF-Madison), 0.72 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Benj Matthewson (2B-Tampa Bay), 5.94 WAR
• Trace Marquis (1B-Philadelphia), 1.05 WAR
• Gerald Meng (SP-Baltimore), -0.06 WAR
• Mateo Iglesias (1B-Tampa Bay), 2.86 WAR
• Asdrubal Lopez (2B-Houston), 4.81 WAR

Since I've finished the Awards Voting portion of this year's blog, here's a quick look at the top five players in WAR/year that I have on record so far (minimum 2 seasons worth of data):

1) Henderson Jackson, 9.0 WAR/year with 7 seasons of data missing

2) Luther Stowers, 7.5 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing 

3) Randy Pose, 6.9 WAR/year with 6 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

4)Chick Prades, 6.3 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

5)Antonio Frandsen, 6.2 WAR/year with 3 seasons of data missing (and one year non-position adjusted)

 At this point, I now have three seasons worth of League Leaders data saved for reference. However, none of the candidates who are currently on the ballot were playing when I started collecting that data so I am going to continue to use the combination of the previous season's ballot and the WAR-only standards to evaluate the current class on their HOF-worthiness. As a reminder, here are the results from last year's voting:

With Roosevelt and Cruz now in, the top five who missed out last year are Miguel Tapies (2 votes short), Nigel Maybin (3 votes short), Cesar Cairo (8 votes short), Guillermo Gutierrez (9 votes short) and Osvaldo Lee (9 votes short.) During the season last year I took some time to look a little more closely at the Hall of Fame here in Plumpy, and have figured out position-by-position standards rather than the general ones that I have been using for awhile now. Let's take a look at those five guys to see how they stack up compared to their positional peers:

Relief Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 167 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR

Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all*

Julio Manuel: 55 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all

Starting Pitchers

Slam Dunk HOFer = 149 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 129 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 109 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 89 Estimated WAR

Nigel Maybin: 89 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Geraldo Terrero: 54 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

David Giavotella: 58 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Rivers: 62 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Kordell Turner: 41 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case at all 

Brandon Peters: 147 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Third Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 76 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 56 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 36 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 16 Estimated WAR

Cesar Cairo: 59 Estimated WAR, Definite HOFer

Bartolo Ramirez: 35 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

First Basemen

Slam Dunk HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 73 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 33 Estimated WAR

Osvaldo Lee = 28 Estimated WAR, No HOF Case At All

Guillermo Gutierrez = 56 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case

Darnell Curtis, 43 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Donn Oliver, 52 Estimated WAR, Weak HOF Case

Left Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 91 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 71 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 51 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 31 Estimated WAR

Otis Gold: 18 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Victor DeRojas: 28 Career WAR, No HOF Case At All

Center Field

Slam Dunk HOFer = 99 Estimated WAR

Definite HOFer = 79 Estimated WAR

Strong HOF Case = 59 Estimated WAR

Weak HOF Case = 39 Estimated WAR

James Moore: 64 Estimated WAR, Strong HOF Case 

My policy has been to vote for anyone in the "Strong HOF Case" category or better whenever possible. Based on these lists, the following guys would get my vote using those criteria: Guillermo Gutierrez &  Cesar Cairo. However, the only reason that Miguel Tapies has "No HOF case at all" is because the only two relievers in the Hall are 6th and 13th on the All-Time list of Estimated WAR so I'm going to vote for Tapies as well and have two votes left to play with. 

The next two guys on the list from last season are Geraldo Terrero & David Giavotella, both of whom are starting pitchers. Neither of them have a HOF case using the standards above, so I move onto the next two guys on the list: Kordell Rivers (SP) & Darnell Curtis (1B.)  Rivers comes up completely short, while Curtis makes a weak case for election so I am going to move onto the rest of the list and see if there are any better option but the door remains open a crack for Curtis. 

I continue to move down the list of last year's vote totals until I get to James Moore, who makes a Strong HOF case so he gets my fourth vote. Next up will be the math on Victor DeRojas, Kordell Turner and Brandon Peters because they are first time candidates. DeRojas and Turner have "No HOF Case at all" but Peters is just shy of falling into the Slam Dunk category for SP's and has arguably the best case of anyone on the ballot this season so he gets my last vote. 

 This is the annual look at the End of Year Awards ballot using the Wins Above Replacement metric that accounts for both the parks everyone plays in as well as their defensive positions. I'm also working on putting together a Career WAR database, although I need some more time to update that for the parks and defensive positions. For now I'll just have to settle for this season, which can be seen below:

AL MVP

• Alex Salas (DH-Cincinnati), 6.84 WAR
• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Sidney Dahlstrand (3B-Salem), 4.84 WAR 
• DT Long (CF-Nashville), 7.45 WAR
• Diego Wilfredo (1B-Madison), 6.81 WAR

NL MVP

• Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 7.87 WAR
• Enny Cayones (1B-Scranton), 6.07 WAR
• Tyson Cowgill (1B-El Paso), 4.07 WAR
• Joey Hurst (CF-Baltimore), 4.20 WAR
• Humberto Prieto (CF-Scranton), 6.45 WAR  

Honorable Mention: Christopher Prades (2B-Philadelphia), 6.18 WAR

AL Cy Young

• Eury Querecuto (SP-Salem), 4.28 WAR
• Didi Sanchez (RP-Hartford), 2.29 WAR
• Alex Bennett (RP-Nashville), 0.81 WAR
• Willis McNichol (SP-Nashville), 2.85 WAR
• Paolo Cortes (RP-Montreal), 3.84 WAR

NL Cy Young 

• Chick Prades (SP-Scranton), 6.62 WAR
• Ricky Orosco (SP-Cleveland), 4.46 WAR
• Lawrence Bryant (RP-Cleveland), 2.30 WAR
• Edward Coomer (SP-Little Rock), 5.14 WAR
• Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 3.15 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

• Buck Sadowski (1B-Memphis), 9.55 WAR
• Marty Caminiti (RF-Syracuse), 1.17 WAR
• Rodney Kelly (SP-Kansas City), 4.57 WAR
• Henderson Jordan (1B-Buffalo), 2.47 WAR
• Vitas Coello (SP-Buffalo), 1.83 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

• Jim Hollandsworth (RP-Pittsburgh), 2.83 WAR
• Randall De Fratus (RF-Scranton), 2.90 WAR
• Yohan Eovaldi (RP-El Paso), 0.24 WAR
• Everth Sucre (SP-Philadelphia), 3.22 WAR
• Aroldis Rodriguez (RF-Philadelphia), 2.40 WAR

I have often wondered how applying my voting methods for Virtual Cooperstown would translate over to the MLB Hall of Fame voting, and if my gut feeling about various major leaguers lines up with how I would vote for them using the strategies I use for HBD Hall of Fame Voting. Since we are in a bit of a lull in both the MLB season and our current HBD season, I figured I'd take the opportunity to find out for sure. 

Over the years here in Plumpy, my voting strategy has changed a bit but the most straightforward one (and therefore the one that I will initially use on my MLB ballot) is the Career WAR total method, broken down as follows:

Slam Dunk HOF'er = 100+ Career WAR

Definite HOF'er = 70 to 99 Career WAR

Strong HOF Case = 50 to 69 Career WAR

Weak HOF Case = 30 to 49 Career WAR

For a look at the full list of 30 players on the ballot this season, follow this link. Here's how those thirty breakdown into the categories listed above-

Slam Dunk HOF'ers = Barry Bonds (163 WAR), Roger Clemens (139 WAR),  A-Rod (117 WAR)

Definite HOF'ers = Curt Schilling (80 WAR), Scott Rolen (70 WAR), 

Strong HOF Case = Manny Ramirez (69 WAR), Andruw Jones (63 WAR), (Todd Helton (62 WAR), Gary Sheffield (61 WAR), Andy Pettitte (60.2 WAR), Bobby Abreu (60.2 WAR), Mark Buehrle (59.1 WAR), Sammy Sosa (58.6 WAR), Tim Hudson (57.8 WAR), Jeff Kent (56 WAR), David Ortiz (55 WAR), Torii Hunter (50.7 WAR), Mark Teixiera (50.6 WAR), 

Weak HOF Case = Jimmy Rollins (48 WAR), Omar Vizquel (45 WAR), Jake Peavy (39.2 WAR), Carl Crawford (39.1 WAR)

No HOF Case = Billy Wagner (28 WAR), Justin Morneau (27.0 WAR), Joe Nathan (26.7 WAR), AJ Pierzynski (23.8 WAR), Prince Fielder (23.8 WAR), Jonathan Papelbon (23 WAR), Tim Lincecum (19.1 WAR), Ryan Howard (14.7 WAR)

Based on that information, my initial ballot would look like this:

1) Barry Bonds-In previous years I've said I wouldn't vote for him because of PED's, but because it's his last year on the ballot and he's pretty close I'd throw him a vote and see if it made a difference. Honestly I'm fine either way on this one. 

2) Roger Clemens-See comments above about Barry Lamar Bonds. 

3) A-Rod-He very much fits into the same category as the first two, but the difference is that this is year #1 on the ballot for him, not year #10. 

4) Curt Schilling- It's not just that he's a jerk, it's that he's a jerk who is trying to use his platform to hurt others too.

5) Scott Rolen

6) Manny Ramirez-Repeat offender in the era of steroid suspensions. Seems hard to enforce the character clause on others who were never actually caught and give Manny a pass, even if I am a big Red Sox fan. 🤷‍♂️

7) Andruw Jones

8) Todd Helton

9) Gary Sheffield- He admitted to using steroids in 2002. I find it hard to believe he didn't also use steroids after that, and he was "only" worth 40 WAR before then...that's still good, but it's not HOF worthy.  

10) Andy Pettitte-He used HGH, but that was technically legal at the time and was never proved to have used other substances, so he stays.  

However, I'm a firm believer in the character clause being an important part of the voting process, and that eliminates a significant number of the players above being removed. Those guys are highlighted in red above and I've put the reasoning next to them. 

Since I've taken 5 guys off of my initial ballot, I look at the next five guys on the list to see how many of them get my vote. They are Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Sammy Sosa, Tim Hudson and Jeff Kent. Sosa gets the boot due to PEDs, but that's OK because it brings me to exactly ten votes: 

1) Barry Bonds

2) Roger Clemens

3) Scot Rolen

4) Andruw Jones

5) Todd Helton

6) Andy Pettitte 

7) Bobby Abreu

8) Mark Buehrle 

9) Tim Hudson

10) Jeff Kent

 Over the past few seasons, I have established a method of Hall of Fame voting that blends both previous voting totals and career Wins Above Replacement that has worked quite well and I will continue using that this year. However, I do have an extra wrinkle to add in at this point: I have been tracking WAR long enough that I am starting to get some career totals for Hall of Famers, so not only will I be able to get a general sense of their chances on an MLB scale but I can also now start comparing the candidates to their Plumpy counterparts as well. 

As usual, we start with a reminder of how last season's voting turned out: 

With Ingram and Corpas now in, our top five vote-getters who fell short last season were Miguel Tapies (1 vote short), Elian Rojas Jr. (7 votes short, and this is at least the third time he has shown up on this list), Osvaldo Lee (9 votes short), Guillermo Gutierrez (10 votes short) and Darnell Curtis (11 votes short.) 

Now that we have our list of leading candidates, let's see how their careers stack up using a method that is based on WAR and borrowed from MLB.com (but expanded to give players credit for leading the league in certain categories.) Here are the results:

• Miguel Tapies: 5.37 total points 
• 102 Estimated WAR in 19 seasons = 5.37 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 0 World Series Rings
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in WHIP, IP, K, Opp SLG and ERA ? times
• Led the league in Gms, SHO, W, SV and Opp OBP ? times
• Led the league in L, Most H, Most R, Most BB, Highest OAVG ? times
• Led the league in GS and SV Opp ? times, Most ER ? times
• Elian Rojas Jr: 12.97 total points 
• 69.54 WAR in 14 seasons = 4.97 Baseline Score
• 8 years of 4+ WAR = 8 points
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 0 World Series Rings
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Osvaldo Lee: 5.87 total points 
• 28 Estimated WAR in 15 seasons = 1.87 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 2 World Series Rings = 4 points
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Guillermo Gutierrez: 10.17 total points 
• 47.61 WAR in 15 seasons = 3.17 Baseline Score
• 5 years of 4+ WAR = 5 points
• 1 MVP Award = 2 points
• 0 World Series Rings 
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 
• Darnell Curtis: 5.31 total points 
• 43 Estimated WAR in 13 seasons = 3.31 Baseline Score*
• ? years of 4+ WAR
• 0 Cy Youngs or MVPs
• 1 World Series Ring = 2 points
• Won ? pennants 
• Led the league in R, H, HR, RBI and OPS ? times, K's ? times
• Led the league in BB, SB, AVG, OBP and SLG ? times, CS ? times
• Led the league in AB, 2B, 3B, HBP, L Streak ? times 

This seems like a good formula to apply to HOF candidates going forward based on the results, but because I haven't been tracking league leaders up until this point I am going to use the WAR-only standards until we get to the point where candidates have league leader data available. This is what the WAR-only standards have to say about the current candidates:

Slam Dunk HOF'ers (100+ WAR) = none

Definite HOF'ers (70-99 WAR) = Miguel Tapies (102 Estimated WAR) 

Strong HOF Cases (50-69 WAR) = Marty Roosevelt (96 Estimated Career WAR), Nigel Maybin (89 Estimated Career WAR), Xander Cruz (81 Estimated Career WAR), Elian Rojas Jr (69.54 WAR)

Weak HOF Cases (Less Than 50 WAR) = Kordell Rivers (62 Estimated Career WAR), Donne Giavotella (58 Estimated WAR), Geraldo Terrero (Estimated 54 Career WAR), Guillermo Gutierrez (47.61 WAR), Glen Lowell (47.30 Career WAR), Darnell Curtis (43 Estimated WAR), Osvaldo Lee (28 Estimated WAR)

My policy is to vote for everyone in the "Strong HOF Case" category or higher, but looking at the current group of players that would only use up two of my five votes. That leads me to looking at the next three candidates on the list from last season: Geraldo Terrero (4 votes last year), Glen Lowell (4 votes last year) and Donne Giavotella (3 votes last year.) Lowell falls a little short, but the other two make the cut and bring me up to four votes used so far. Next on the list is Kordell Rivers, who received 3 votes last year. He also makes the cut and becomes my final vote for this season. 

Four of the five guys who are getting my votes have Estimated Career WAR totals right now, so the next step is to convert those estimations to park adjusted totals and re-evaluate their candidacy. 

***

Now that voting has actually started and it turns out that Rojas Jr. is not on the ballot this season, I need to find out if there is someone who is worthy of getting my fifth and final vote. I am going to start by looking into others who have received votes so far: 

• Cesar Cairo, 59 Estimated Career WAR
• Marty Roosevelt, 96 Estimated Career WAR
• Xander Cruz, 81 Estimated Career WAR
• Nigel Maybin, 89 Estimated Career WAR

These four are actually going to change my whole ballot around, as three of them turned out to be top five candidates for Virtual Cooperstown. At this point, I am looking at a ballot of Tapies, Roosevelt, Maybin and Cruz with my fifth and final vote still up for grabs.