Plumpy Season 40 Draft Analysis

 Five years have passed since the Season 40 Plumpy Draft and it’s a decent time to evaluate the top 10 picks of the draft. I’m going to borrow from Mel Kiper Jr and assign a grade for each of the picks, and one pick outside of the top 10 that I find to be spectacular. I can’t say I have reviewed all picks so I certainly could have missed a golden one, but I feel pretty darn good about the player I’m calling out. For the team making each selection I am showing the current franchise the player is affiliated with (due to change in owner). As an example, the first pick Ozzie Woods was selected by Houston, which is now Florida. In all other cases I am showing the original franchise that made the selection regardless of trades subsequent to the draft.

1. Ozzie Woods, SS Florida Fire Frogs 

Grade: B-

Woods never signed and we can’t see his ratings, but this turned into the #2 pick in the Season 41 draft which was Devon Clark, 2B. 

Devon Clark Florida Fire Frogs Age: 22 B/T: R/R Born: Elsberry, MO Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

With a #1 or #2 pick I’m always hoping for a Hall-of-Famer. Clark will be a great 2B for many years but with such a high pick I would rather he have a bigger bat at 2B, play a premium position like CF or SS, or be a SP. He will not be a Hall-of-Famer.

2. Victor DeRojas, LF Kansas City Kilroy 

Victor DeRojas Kansas City Kilroy Age: 27 B/T: R/R Born: Maynard, MA Position(s): LF/1B/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B+

Career Slash Line: .269/.332/.513

DeRojas can mash, with HR totals of 40 and 46 in two full seasons and another 30 2/3 of the way through season 45. I tend to believe his season 45 is an outlier with lower output and that he will in general have an OPS closer to .900 most seasons. He is held back by his low splits and lack of speed. He plays plus defense in LF and was a solid but not spectacular pick.

3. Seth Lewis, 3B Mexico City Monarchs 

Seth Lewis Mexico City Monarchs Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Lovington, NM Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: C

Career Slash Line: .276/.327/.393

 Lewis is a plus defender at 3B but carries a mediocre bat and will eventually be asking for a very costly contract with an 85 overall rating mostly driven by Durability, Health, and Makeup. He smacked 37 doubles in Season 44 but has totaled 26 HR’s in essentially two full seasons combined, which is not enough power to be considered a top-end 3B.

4. Nipsey Henley, 3B Salt Lake City Revival 

Nipsey Henley Salt Lake City Revival Age: 27 B/T: S/R Born: Norton, KS Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: C-

Career Slash Line: .253/.325/.391

Henley was touted as a SS coming out of the draft but his defensive ratings at 82/78/87/79 make him no better than a plus defender at 3B. While his power grades out better than Lewis, his lack of splits drive his hitting value lower than a typical top-tier 3B. He finally made his ML debut this season at 27 so it’s possible his hitting turns around a bit, but when compared to a few of the next couple of picks in the draft immediately after Henley he looks to be a disappointment.

5. Ed Foster, 2B Toledo Scots  

Ed Foster Toledo Scots Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Lakeside, CA Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B

Career Slash Line: .265/.351/.410

Foster is another player who will be commanding a huge pay raise someday down the line…with an 88 overall rating propped up by high Dur, Health, Patience, and Makeup he will have high demands. He would be a potential HOF’er at 2B if his Range and Glove were 5 points higher – as it is, he’s a minus defensively at 2B but passable – and as long as he is passable, his OBP and stealing capability help provide decent value as a #5 pick. Would Toledo trade Foster to Mexico City for Lewis? I think not. 

6. Marlon DeJean, DH Buffalo Lake Effect 

Marlon DeJean Buffalo Lake Effect Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Weston, CT Position(s): DH/C/RF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A-

Career Slash Line: .265/.354/.516

DeJean is a big bopper, clubbing 58 HR’s in parts of two seasons and will likely top a 1.000 OPS multiple times in his career. He’s 23 years old and will be plugged in as a DH versus RHP for the next 10 seasons in all likelihood, with the ability to play full-time DH in the playoffs. He likely was shown as a Catcher in the draft but his ratings are too low to be anything but an emergency backup. This pick was very good, however I find it hard to believe you would take a DH bat, no matter how big, over a #1/#2 starter – and at this point in the draft not a single pitcher had been taken!

7. Eugenio James, SP Montreal Magma 

Eugenio James Montreal Magma Age: 27 B/T: S/R Born: Prairie Du Sac, WI Position(s): P (T3B) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Pitching Line: 38-23, 1.18/3.75

The first pitcher finally goes off the board…and he’s a winner. With 80 Stam and 31 Dur, James can likely pitch close to 250 innings every season and will be a factor in the Magma rotation for a long time to come. His splits don’t blow anyone away, his secondary pitches are average, however his Control/Velocity/GB rating are all great to elite. He is not as overwhelming as many pitchers I have seen go in the top 3 of different drafts, but to grab the best pitcher in the draft at #7 was a great play. 

8. Glenn Ennis, SP Kansas City Kilroy (Drafted by San Antonio Forgotten Alamos) 

Glenn Ennis Kansas City Kilroy Age: 26 B/T: R/R Born: Wilburton, OK Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: B-

Career Pitching Line: 36-40, 1.50/5.35

Despite these rough numbers early in his career, this is a decent pick. He’ll be able to throw nearly 275 innings each season with 99 Stam and 29 Dur – however, he is certainly underperforming and I expect a bit better from him in future seasons. It provides an interesting case study in what difference a few points make on some key pitching ratings. When comparing Ennis to James in the following categories, Ennis is +/- (better/worse) as follows (Control, Vs L, vs R, Vel, GB, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5): (11), 0, 3, (14), (7), (8), 0, (23), (2), (14). I think the 8-point difference in P1 especially when compared with the combined lower ratings of P2-P5 of 39 points tell us most of the story. Hmmm…I’m considering moving this grade down a bit…47 points lower in pitching ratings is a LOT!

 In a sad turn of events for the San Antonio franchise, Ennis was traded in season 42 for one year of Sherman Snow

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7132080

Snow was 19-7 with a 1.16/2.62 line but left as a free agent and did not lead the team to the playoffs. 

9. Julius Kinney, SP Tampa Bay Barracudas 

Julius Kinney Tampa Bay Barracudas Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Rossford, OH Position(s): P (SP3) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A

Career Pitching Line: 3-2, 1.39/5.11 (only 44 IP)

This was a great pick at #9 – he’s a solid #2 starter and is still showing improvement in his ratings. This is normally what you would find as a top-5 pick – while he’s off to a little bit of a rough start in his first season of pro play, he has excellent control, velocity, and P1/P2 (Sinker/Slider). A quick note on the term “#2 starter”: like a few other analysts out there, I believe there are really only a handful, no more than 8 or so, true “#1 starters”. Kenney can very well top out a rotation but won’t be the guy you fear facing 3 times in a 7 game series – but he’s going to be a very solid SP for a long time.

10. Fergie Cooke, CF Chicago FrozenKoreans 

Fergie Cooke Chicago FrozenKoreans Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Bloomer, WI Position(s): CF/3B/MIF/OF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Slash Line: .307/.373/.503 44/54 SB’s

Cooke is off to a monster start in the Majors – playing plus defense at CF and is on his way to several Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. His glove hasn’t developed enough to play at SS but he could play there in a pinch. Cooke is proof of why split ratings matter so much – when combined with a 80 eye rating, it doesn’t matter that his contact is only 48 – he gets on base often, and when he does he steals at a 81% success rate. This was an excellent pick and a real steal at #10.

Schnoogens’ Pick of the Draft 

This last draft result is my favorite post-10 pick – someone grabbing value or a particular set of skills a little bit further in the draft.

Pick #19: Daniel Brumfield, C/DH Tampa Bay Barracudas 

Daniel Brumfield Tampa Bay Barracudas Age: 27 B/T: R/R Born: Harrison, OH Position(s): C/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Grade: A+

Career Slash Line: .332/.426/.628 with 43 HR

I LOVE these kinds of players. They are hard to find, and when you get one on your team it’s a kind of player you never forget. Brumfield’s core 5 hitting ratings are 93/99/96/79/81 – which is HOF-worthy on any player and some of the best totals I have ever seen. However, Brumfield will almost definitely NOT make it into the HOF…but why? He likely won’t accumulate the accolades and large totals that HOF voters look for because his Dur rating is a measly 30 – which limits him to about 250 AB’s per season. This is also likely the reason he fell to pick #19 – he’s not an every day player and his value would be completely hampered in the NL (only useful as a PH). In the AL he can DH/C in the regular season against LHP and then be a full-time player in the playoffs when fatigue is not a concern. He is going to put impressive numbers for years to come.

In glancing at just these 11 picks I highlighted, one conclusion I have drawn is that Tampa Bay “won” the draft in season 40. They grabbed A-rated SP Kinney with pick #9 and then A+ rated C/DH Brumfield at #19. Owner Seventy_77 must be consistently drafting well – as he has taken his team from being mismanaged for seven seasons before his arrival to now being a consistent playoff contender.

Thanks for reading!

I've added this as a permanent menu topic (click the three horizontal bars in the top right corner), but I wanted to also post as a blog post to grab extra attention at the outset. Here is a general overview/basic tips and tricks write-up that's kind of evolved over years of playing HBD:

https://theplumpytimes.blogspot.com/p/hbd-crash-course.html

Sorry guys, had a busy weekend and wanted to respond to this discussion but just haven't had a chance until now. I've re-written this multiple times now to try to be as succinct as possible, but there's lots of good thoughts here, so tough to keep it short!

First of all, real-life commitments are a legitimate obstacle to full HBD participation - I know I've wanted to be more proactive as commissioner puiblicly tracking the MWR and things like that, but I changed jobs a year ago and my time for HBD has diminished more than I'd like. A couple seasons ago I missed budgeting, much less alerting other owners to their MWR status! So it's a goal of mine to get back into the habit of doing that, and think of this as a "my bad" and I'll try to do better.

As to bcp's question of why this MWR assessment has come up when the league seems to be fairly healthy... I'd like to first give a little background on why I personally think the MWR is important, and what I think its purpose is. First off, I think our Minimum Win Requirement is too often thought of as an "anti-tanking rule". Its purpose is to maintain a league-wide competitive balance, and to be agnostic as to owner intent. It is important because competition has been the culture of this league, at least since I've been a member, and frankly an HBD league without competition is not one I'm interested in being in. I LIKE seeing rebuilding teams trying to win at the end of the season to make the MWR, I LIKE seeing an owner like Zeus try to make some late season trades because he's worried he'll miss the MWR. The MWR is about making our league more engaged and competitive from top to bottom.

So why are we talking about it? I know for me, as recruiting has gotten more and more difficult, removal of owners has evolved from a punishment that impacts only the offending owner, to a punishment that impacts both the offending owner and the league itself. When it was easy to quickly find a good replacement owner for a non-competitive franchise, expulsion was fine. Now that it is imperative to have as few openings as possible, I think the punishment needs to be reviewed.

With that said, I am not in favor of removing or relaxing our MWR standards. I agree with schnoogens about his statement about 50 wins, and would point out that WiS actually has fair play guidelines with their own MWR, stating (among other items) "it's no more difficult to field a healthy team that can win 50 games than it is to field a team that can win 30 games," and an owner can be expelled for having a "Major League team expected winning percentage of less than .250 for at least 80 games of the regular season". A .250 expected win rate would result in 40.5 games won for the entire seasons, so even in public leagues if you are on pace for 40.5 for half a season you can be expelled. I don't think 55 wins is unreasonable given these bare-minimum guidelines WiS enforces.

This game is difficult, especially for new owners or abused franchises. But I think the point of our MWR is to establish a reasonable competitive standard to shoot for. If that means as a new owner you can't dabble in IFA right away, or if you inherit some bad contracts you can't boost your scouting budgets right away, that's part of the game. That said, if new owners have some advice for me or other veterans in the league for how we can help them avoid accidental pitfalls, I'm all ears - in my experience, and as Cheezy pointed out, it's very difficult to strike that balance between letting an owner run the team how they want to, and micro-managing every move.

In summary: sorry I haven't notified owners in danger of the MWR consistently, I'll try to do better; I think punishment for MWR violations need to change/get creative; I'd like suggestions for helping new/struggling owners; but also 55 wins isn't a hard standard to meet; when in doubt, spend an extra $10m on 2 year contracts for veterans.

I've gotten a couple questions recently about the MWR violations so I wanted to address some of those questions, and hopefully more.

We had two MWR violations this season, and a couple other teams not-so-subtly gunning for low win totals. For the MWR, Portland only won 45 games, and over two seasons Houston only won 114 games. The Houston owner in particular was newer to HBD, and I've had a couple people message me asking for leniency. The rules, as constructed, do not allow for this, specifically because a 55/120/185/260 win minimum should not be difficult to meet, even for a new player. Furthermore, the fact that a handful of other teams are clearly trying to NOT be competitive should underline how important a definitive MWR really is.

On that note, I had multiple owners message me last season about teams giving bad players 500+ ABs in the Majors, players that would struggle to get a .600 OPS in the minors; I have had messages about owners playing left-handed fielders in the infield with plenty of better options available; I've seen teams start players with terrible righty splits against only right-handed pitchers. As far as I know, we've avoided the dreaded "catcher at shortstop" so far. But as much as I would like to create rules to eliminate this behavior, these are ultimately subjective measures. In the past I've personally been accused of tanking for starting a gold glove SS who could barely OPS .600; and for starting a bad catcher in RF because he was such an offensive stud. I thought these were good decisions that benefit my team, and other owners saw it differently, which is completely within their rights. This game is ultimately about allowing YOU to control your team. It's extremely difficult to draw a line regarding what personnel moves dictate an intentional attempt at fielding a bad team, and I certainly won't claim my own preferences toward competitive balance are "right" or even held by the majority.

That said, a Minimum Win Requirement is not subjective. Sure, it doesn't care if you are making an earnest shot at winning but have had bad luck. But it also avoids forcing me/you all to make a guess at an owner's intent.

So, the MWR is an attempt at drawing that line between a bare-minimum effort at fielding a competitive team, and actively trying to lose. If you miss the MWR, the fact that you inherited a particularly bad team is not an excuse. Having bad veteran contracts is not an excuse. Getting hit with injuries is not an excuse. This game is ultimately about luck and is full of unknowns, so if you're at all concerned you are headed for a MWR violation, err on the side of winning too many, and ask for advice and/or spend some money. We all know the best way to create a powerhouse team is to cut salary and accumulate high draft picks/expensive IFAs -- but if doing so causes you to miss the MWR, too bad.

I understand the need for a rebuild, and the fine line between not trying to win and actively trying to lose -- hell I just traded my World Series-winning starting rotation to get a head-start on a rebuild. But the MWR is designed to remove any subjective judgment from the process. To those truly struggling to build a MWR-safe team, let me know if you need help -- myself and several other owners would be happy to lend some advice. To those intentionally shooting for the MWR, that is a skill in itself, and I wish you a sarcastic good luck.

Or, Why You'll (Likely) Never Draft a Prospect That Exceeds Your Projections. 

I'd like to balance out the new, exciting, optimistic blog re-design with a negative, pessimistic inaugural blog post.

Approximately 1 year ago, WhatIfSports introduced the largest Hardball Dynasty update in quite some time. Included in this update was an overhaul to the scouting system:

In the new system, the accuracy of the high school, college and international scouting departments is now different and less accurate than the advanced scouting department. And because current ratings are no longer visible for prospects, scouts can now under project a prospect's ratings. This means the shift in projected ratings once a player enters your advanced scouting department can be potentially larger in the past.

This also means the Amateur Draft will be less formulaic.  Budgets still matter very much, but there is more variability.  Can you occasionally have a scout be way off on a player with a $15 budget? Sure, but it'll be less likely than if you had a $10M or $5M budget. But it also means your scout may be wrong in a favorable way as well.

Prior to this update, the draft was relatively formulaic -- as long as you had a decent enough scouting budget and didn't get stuck with a terrible draft class, a top 10 pick would usually turn into an All-Star or better. This generally eliminated from HBD the concept of a "draft bust", but it also eliminated much hope of getting a top 10 talent at the end of Round 1 or later. The idea that you could draft a player that exceeds your scouting expectations was generally well-received.

In the year since the update, I have anecdotally heard many accounts of owners being disappointed by their scouting, and very few being pleasantly surprised. Examples of TRUE diamonds in the rough appear few and far between.

But as WiS stated above, scouts can now under-project a prospect's rating. I've personally experienced a prospects current rating in a category end up better than my scout's projected rating, so it certainly is possible. I'm sure if an owner compared every player scouted in the draft to the player's actual peak development rating, we'd find a good percentage that ended up better than the projections predicted. 

But will you ever draft such a player?

I don't think so.

For a given prospect, 31 other teams are potentially scouting that prospect. And statistically speaking, it's likely a good percentage of those teams either projects the prospect accurately, or over-projects the prospect. Assuming teams rank players based on their projections, that player is going to be ranked higher for other teams than for myself, and will therefore in all likelihood get drafted before he reaches me. 

An over-simplified example:

If we have a group of 10 players, one rated 80 and the other nine rated 70. I see the 80-rated guy as a 65, but I see the other nine accurately at 70. If I drafted him I'd be super stoked -- he's better than any of the others I'd seen!

However, if I draft before any other owners, I'm screwed -- I'll take one of the nine guys rated 70ish.

In order for me to take the 80-rated player, the following two conditions must be met:

Condition 1: I pretty much have to draft after everyone else to have hope of getting this guy, since my board will take any of the 70 guys before the "65" guy. Ok this is easy if you have a lower draft pick.

Condition 2: I also have to hope zero of the nine-plus owners drafting in front of me see that 80 guy as better than any of the 70 guys -- some combo of under-rating the 80 guy, over-rating the 70 guys, and perhaps not seeing the 80 guy. For all nine-plus owners.

So, in order to draft a player your scouts significantly under-rate, all teams drafting in front of you have to draft all your "incorrectly-higher-projected" players before your spot, AND either not see the "under-rated-good-guy" or also consistently under-project in similar fashion.

All that said, because projections are "fuzzier", there appears to be a higher chance a guy you accurately project as good could fall further than in the past, because so many other teams are over-projecting and under-projecting other players. But I still don't think we'll be hearing many stories of owners drafting top-ten talent at the end of Round 1 or lower.

Unless we can figure out WTF happened with Kolten Cook.

How much money will that guy have made in his career by the time this deal is up? He may well end up netting the most wealth out of any player in Plumpy history.
-Zeustis01

Based on the above World Chat comment, I thought it might be a fun inaugural mini-post to total up Julio Rijo's projected career earnings.

Entering his 12th Major League season, Rijo is already one of the most decorated pitchers in the history of Plumpy Rules. His list of personal awards includes: Rookie of the Year, 10 straight All-Star appearances, two Silver Sluggers, 7 Cy Youngs, 3 World Series, and 1 Gold Glove. And at age 31, he also places inside the top 5 in: career batting average allowed, career complete games, career ERA, career OBP allowed, career shutouts, career slugging percentage allowed, strikeouts per nine innings, career WHIP, and career winning percentage. It's only fitting he'll likely end up as one of the top earners in Plumpy history as well.

Rijo was signed as an International Free Agent by the (then) Syracuse Magma to a Major league contract in S24. His season-by-season earnings are as follows:

• S24 (minors) -- Salary: $327K; Bonus: $42M
• S25 (minors) -- Salary: $327K
• S26 (Major League debut) -- Salary: $327K
• S27 -- Salary: $342K
• S28 -- Salary: $360K
• S29 -- Salary: $378K
• S30 -- Arbitration Y1: $2.3M
• S31 -- Arbitration Y2: $8M
• S32 -- Salary: $10M; Bonus: $6M
• S33 -- Salary: $10M
• S34 -- Salary: $10M
• S35 -- Salary: $10M
• S36 -- Salary: $10M
• S37 -- Salary: $20M; Bonus: $10M
• S38 -- Salary: $20M
• S39 -- Salary: $20M
• S40 -- Salary: $20M
• S41 -- Salary: $20M (Player Option)

Assuming Rijo exercises his Player Option in S41, that will leave him at age 36, having earned $178,362,000. Over those 18 seasons, that averages out to $9.909M per season.

Considering $42M in Prospect Budget really translates to $20M + 2x$22M = $64M, Rijo's total COST at age 36 will have been a whopping $200,363,000. Over those 18 seasons, that averages out to $11.131M per season.

It is difficult to find the highest paid players throughout our league history. The following is a sampling of players who had both long and successful careers:

Einar Pena (SP): $280,671,000
Amos Phillips (SP): $206,902,000
Brian Lewis (LF): $175,509,000
Juan Seguignol (SP): $158,068,500
Edge Yount (1B): $144,216,000
Vic Herrera (SP): $136,017,000
Dorian Dunham (LF): $129,173,000

At his current rate, Rijo would already end up as #3 on this list, $28.54M behind Phillips and $102.309M behind Pena. It seems likely Rijo will surpass Phillips for #2 on this list.

But for Rijo to surpass Pena, he would need to:

• Pitch 5 more seasons (through age 40) at an average of $20,461,800 per season
• Pitch 6 more seasons (age 41) at an average of $17,051,500 per season
• Pitch 7 more seasons (age 42) at an average of $14,615,571 per season
• Pitch 8 more seasons (age 43) at an average of $12,788,625 per season

All in all, as good as Rijo is, I think it'll be tough for him to surpass Pena. Giving what amounts to a second max contract at age 36 seems steep, although Pena was signed to a $104M deal at that exact age...

Dearest Plumpy owners, after much time, thought, and deliberation, I have decided it is time for me to step down as commissioner of our league.  The MWR needs an overhaul and much like we did 12 seasons ago when we created the MWR and I first took over, I believe it would be best for the league for a new dedicated commissioner to step in, take the reigns, and re-establish the league rules.  I am also simply ready to just play this game for awhile.  I would like to nominate Pajammies as my successor.  He has done remarkable work as commissioner in Double Mendoza (their blog is FANCY), and is someone I know will do what is in the best interest of the league.  That said, if anyone else is interested in becoming commissioner, please let it be known now.  I will of course continue to play in the league, and I will continue to recruit new owners at every roll over as it has become a passion of mine.  It has been a pleasure being your commissioner, and thank you everyone for making this world as awesome as it is.  -zeustis01

Every once in a great while in this game of HBD, a player comes along who redefines what it means to be elite.  On August 15th, 2012 at 3:03pm EST, Zyrion of the then "rebuilding" Syracuse Magma signed <a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=5125671" target="_blank">Julio Rijo</a> to a record $42 million dollar signing bonus to play fake baseball in Syracuse.  In addition to changing the landscape of Plumpy forever (for newer owners, this signing prompted the development of the league's Minimum Win Requirement), Rijo immediately became the top prospect in the league.

His projections looked legendary, to the extent that when two weeks after the signing Rijo tore his labrum, some league members wondered aloud if the game makers let Rijo slip through by mistake and set him back with the injury to level the playing field.  2 World Championships, 9 All-Star Game appearances, and 6 Cy Young Awards later, the verdict is in: Julio Rijo was no mistake, he's just that damn good.

The question then must be asked, how could an owner of this fake man who has 223 career wins and 2,771 career strikeouts (all accrued before turning 30 this season!) possibly trade such a player?  Well, trade rumors began circulating when Zyrion revealed on World Chat that Rijo would not re-sign with the team after his contract expires this season.  Rather than risk the unpredictable Type A FA market, he made Rijo available in hopes of landing significantly more of a return than he would likely get next season.  The results are the mega deal that went down last night, almost three real years to the day when Rijo was first signed, between the now Madison Magma and the Fargo Malvos.  Let's take a look at why this trade should be a win for the Magma, and why it should be a win for the Malvos as well.

The Deal: 

Madison Magma get https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=7301723, https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=6892554, and https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=6761635

Fargo Malvos get https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=5125671, https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=5917254, https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4245077

Why it's a win for Madison:

Let's start with the main prize of the return package for Rijo, which is Geraldo Terrero.  Terrero is a true blue chip prospect, signed out of El Seibo, DO last season.  Not only is he already Major League ready, he could make the All-Star team this year, and he's only 21.  With a versus righty split already at 86 and velocity in the high 80s as well, it is not hard to project this SP having both important ratings climb into the mid-90s before his development is complete.  He's not Julio Rijo, but he is a rotation anchor, and is far more of a return than Zyrion would have received next season on the open FA market.

In addition to Terrero, Juan Esposito is a legit ML bat at 1B, and while questions remain about his defense, his potential to OPS close to .900 against RHP makes him a valuable acquisition as well.  Cecchini should slot into the back end of the rotation at some point, though that ugly vs. Lefty rating may prove a hinderance.  In short, Zyrion received 3 future MLers, 1, possibly 2 All-Stars, with Terrero having a shot at winning a Cy Young award or two throughout his career.  Addiitonally, Zyrion cleared $16 million off the books, giving him room to be a player in FA if he so chooses to be this season.  Whether or not Zyrion turns this into the beginning of a full on re-build has yet to be seen, though early indications are that he's willing to move more of his elite veterans for prospects as well.

Why it's a win for Fargo:

They get Julio F'ing Rijo, the greatest pitcher in league history.  Boom, end of story,  Nunez and Nieves are solid additions as well, but this side of the debate starts and ends with Rijo.  Yes, it's only for one season, and yes, losing Terrero to a division rival may sting for the next 11 seasons, but... IT'S JULIO RIJO!  This franchise already won the championship last season, and immediately becomes the favorite to win it again in Season 36.  Fargo also now has the extremely advantageous "home field tie breaker" should they decide to go to a max offer on Rijo next season.  Rijo will undoubtedly hit the open market next season, and if he returns to Fargo, this trade unquestionably will go down as a win-win for both teams.  If Fargo doesn't win the championship this season then loses Rijo to FA while winding up with a mid comp round + 2nd round pick for him, it will be harder to call this one a win for the Malvos.  Then again, it's Julio F'ing Rijo; who wouldn't want to have him for at least one season just to enjoy the ride?

Recently some long term owners have violated our league's established Minimum Win Requirement (MWR) which has sparked some discussions about why we would allow dedicated owners to leave Plumpy.  Rather than take up an incredible number of World Chat posts, I decided to write a blog post about the history of our league's Minimum Win Requirement and why I consider it a vital piece to the health of our league.

Some history...

In Season 24, there was no Minimum Win Requirement.  Teams were allowed to lose or win as much as they wanted.  The then Memphis Problems were poised to win their 3rd of 4 championships over a 6 season span, a period of dominance where the rest of the league constantly felt like they were fighting for second place.  Simultaneously, the then Syracuse Magma were in the midst of an historically bad season, one in which the Magma won only 43 games.

Then along came Julio Rijo on the International market.  When his career is all said and done, it is entirely possible that Julio Rijo will go down as the greatest pitcher in Plumpy history.  In Season 24 when he appeared, 15 owners had budgeted at least $20 million in prospect payroll.  Everyone who saw him wanted Rijo, but the problem was, one team had filled his ML squad with sub-AAAA scrubs for the league minimum and was paying less than $18 million dollars in player salaries.

Julio Rijo signed with the Syracuse Magma for a record $42 million in prospect money, a record that holds to this day.  When taking budget transfers into account, Zyrion spent a total of $64 million dollars to get Rijo.  On his signing day, the World Chat lit up with protests about how unfair it was that the Magma were doing everything in their power to lose, and were rewarded with arguably the greatest pitcher in league history.  The precedent that was being set was scary: if you wanted to get the best IFA, you had to systematically destroy your team for a 3-6 seasons in order to do so.

Now this is not meant to in any way demonize Zyrion.  He broke no league rules that we had in place at the time.  He is an incredibly savvy and dedicated owner, who was far from the only guy tanking at the time.  He just did it the most effectively.  He also got the #1 draft pick the next season which turned into Cy Young award winner Frank Leonard.  Once he started competing again, his low player payroll allowed him to continue to splurge on IFAs, as he signed superstuds Lariel Cubillan, Pedro Martin, and Pablo Macias over the next several seasons, helping to create the Magma that we know and fear today.  (Editor's note: Zyrion has also made some brilliant trades and ballsy free agent signings that have turned his franchise into an empire.  As I said, the guy is a savvy.)

The aforementioned Memphis Problems had utilized a similar albeit less blatant tanking strategy when creating its powerhouse.  With no MWR, the Problems accrued 7 consecutive seasons worth of top 10 picks, while simultaneously leading the league in IFA spending.  This created an absolute juggernaut of a franchise that won 4 World Series in 6 seasons, boasting the league's best record year after year.

Between Memphis's dominance and Syracuse's IFA spending, the overwhelming consensus in Season 24 was that something needed to be done in order to bring parity and competitive balance back to the league.  Several ideas were proposed at the time, and a league vote was held to determine which MWR would best fit our league.  The consensus was that all owners had to win 55 games in one season, 120 games over two seasons, 185 games over three seasons, and 260 games over four seasons.  This allowed owners room to undergo a rebuilding project, while also protecting the league from teams intentionally having a bottom 10 record for 4 years or more, and from filling out their ML roster with AAAA quality players.  The hope was that as time went on, parity would return to the league and the game would become more fun again.

And it's worked.

It's taken a long time, but the league is more competitive and balanced now than it's been in a long time.  7 teams are poised to make the play-offs this season that did not last season.  That's incredible.  In the three years before the MWR was put into place, we lost 7, 6, and 10 owners each season at the rollover.  Over the past 5 seasons with the MWR firmly in place, we've lost 3, 2, 3, 1 and 5 owners each season.  There are many factors that I believe keep owners interested in returning to the league, but knowing you have a shot to turn your team around and make it a play-off contender without losing 100 games for multiple seasons in a row is massively important.

Ultimately, we're all here because we love baseball and we love fantasy sports.  This is fun and for many of us, it's one of the main hobbies of our day to day lives.  It really sucks having to lose people who want to be here, but we have to draw the line somewhere.  The 55-120-185-260 MWR is the fairest way we've been able to come up with.  Bad luck happens, and that's why we have a vote.

I am firmly in favor of allowing owners who violate the MWR and are removed from the league to return at the helm of another franchise, and I am open to discussing that idea further on the World Chat.

Thank you all for being a part of this league.  It is a pleasure being commissioner of Plumpy.  Good luck to everyone in the post-season.

Today's interview is with one of the longest tenured and most successful owners in Plumpy history, 3 time World Series Champion and owner of the Oakland Hammers, mattwithanh!  Be sure to read the entire interview, especially his answer to question 10.  It may become an official part of the league charter:

1.) What do you do in real life?
I work in the legal department for a large bank and brokerage firm. 

2.) How did you learn about HBD?
When I was in law school, I read Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman who had an HBD league and was looking for members. I applied and was invited to play in Gleeman World I and fell in love with the game. It makes regular fantasy sports seem so superficial. Gleeman World was a really tough world to learn how to play in, but it made me better a whole lot quicker. 

3.) Who is your all time favorite ballplayer in Plumpy?
Well, Einar Pena would have to my best player ever and might be the best Plumpy pitcher ever. But probably my favorite player would have to be Ken James. He was a DITR who got most of his hitting ratings bumped up to all 90s, the fascinating thing was he had 20 durability and 20 health. He could only get 200-300 PAs but hit would OPS 900+

4.) What is your proudest moment in Plumpy?
Winning my first HBD World Series in season 11. Playoffs are such a crapshoot it’s a real thrill when you make it all the way through and get the trophy graphic on your dashboard the whole next season. 

5.) Which player is your proudest draft pick?
I am sure I am in the minority, but the draft is one of my least favorite parts of HBD. It’s a lot of work to get any real value past the 2nd round and I usually pick pretty late. But my season 9 draft is probably my best ever, I think I got 7 guys who ended up contributing at the ML level. Specifically though, I think someone was impressed that I got Juan Aquino at #33 in season 13. 

6.) What is the most devastating injury one of your players incurred?
I honestly have no idea. It was probably to a draft pick who then never made it and thus I never gave any real thought to. 

7.) What is the most overrated rating on a player card? (if you feel this gives away part of your competitive advantage, feel free to ignore it)
I think pitcher splits are pretty overrated. They are just so reliant on the other ratings. Anyone who has a had a pitcher with high 70s-80s splits but doesn’t have an out pitch rating will consistently be disappointed by their performance.

8.) What is the most underrated rating on a player card? (same caveat as above)
The high baserunning/speed combo can add a ton of value to a fringe player and can make a good player a great one. For pitchers, its durability. The difference between a guy who can throw 170 innings of 3.50 ERA and one who can throw 230 innings of 4.00 is really stark and underappreciated because likely it’s going to be a much worse pitcher throwing those 60 innings.

9.) Do you have a nemesis in the league (either another owner or a particular player?)
I sure haven’t won many AL West titles since tlally came along, but he just left. I would say there are lot of guys I respect: Tjack, Jerico, Dawei, bcpcbpccpc, goodtymes, grecianfox

10.) As one of our most seasoned owners, how do you think Plumpy could improve going forward?
Be excellent to one another. This is a for-pay, fake player fantasy league with a high barrier of entry. It boggles my mind that we can find 31 other guys who want to do this much less those who will pay for it and participate consistently. Cherish the fact we found each other and can pretend to run baseball teams together.