Impartial Trade Evaluations

by 10:30 PM 0 comments
In both our sister world of Steinbrenner and my original world of FYC, I have brought up a method of evaluating trades that is impartial and essentially 100% fact-based. It has come in useful for both situations like the one we currently find ourselves in here, where there is some debate as to whether or not a trade is "fair" and also for fun blog-based activities.

The method is based mainly on draft position and is derived from Pro Football Focus's Draft Value Chart which assigns a certain number of "draft points" to specific draft slots. However, since that chart was developed for football there are a couple of adjustments that need to be made for baseball (and Hardball Dynasty in particular): International Free Agents, Diamonds In The Rough and Cash in trades. Also, for the purposes of evaluating trades on the basis of "fairness" I have come to the conclusion that anything more than a 10 point difference of value between the two sides is a deal that should be questioned if not outright vetoed.

With all that in mind, here is how this method could be applied to the trade currently up for debate on the World Chat:

To Louisville: Jared File, Pick #308 = 0 Draft Points ; Lance Williams, Pick #82 = 6.50 Draft Points
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, DITR w/value of Pick #208 = 0.7 Draft Points ; $5M = 5 Draft Points

Totals: Louisville 6.50 Draft Points ; Toronto 5.70 Draft Points...difference of 0.80 Draft Points = FAIR DEAL

 ****IT HAS BEEN POINTED OUT THAT THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE QUALITY OF THE PLAYER REGARDLESS OF THEIR DRAFT POSITION...TO THAT END, I RE-DID THE EVALUATION BASED ON PROJECTED WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT***

I often evaluate players based on a formula that gives me projected WAR totals for a player based on their ratings. Given the observation above, I figured I'd run the players involved through that spreadsheet to see how the two sides of the deal stack up based on the "major league quality" involved. Here's what I came up with:

To Louisville: Jared File, -2.18 WAR ; Lance Williams, 0.24 WAR = -1.94 WAR value received
To Toronto: Pascual Arias, -3.41 WAR, $5M (~1.67 WAR) =  -1.74 WAR value received

Again, seems like a pretty fair deal...but I can also see the other side since File is a serviceable defensive catcher at the ML level.

bruinsfan911

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Commissioner of the fakest fake baseball league on the planet: Plumpy Rules!!!!111

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