Just like last year, we are not quite at a point where I can factor in the data I began saving a few seasons ago with league leaders and real life was busy enough that I forgot to take a screenshot of last year's vote totals. Oops. So, just like last year, I will use position-by-position Career WAR standards to determine how much of an argument each of the candidates has and then proceed from there. Using this process got Nigel Maybin inducted last season so hopefully it will get a few more deserving candidates over the line this time around. To start with I'll look at Odalis Marmol, Esmailyn Johnson and Miguel Tapies all of whom have previously received 10 HOF votes:
Relief Pitchers
Slam Dunk HOFer = 167+ Estimated WAR
Definite HOFer = 147 Estimated WAR
Strong HOF Case = 127 Estimated WAR
Weak HOF Case = 107 Estimated WAR
No HOF Case = 106 Estimated WAR or Fewer
Miguel Tapies: 102 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case
Second Base
Slam Dunk HOFer = 113+ Estimated WAR
Definite HOFer = 93 Estimated WAR
Strong HOF Case = 73 Estimated WAR
Weak HOF Case = 53 Estimated WAR
No HOF Case = 52 or fewer Estimated WAR
Esmailyn Johnson: 79 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case
Right Field
Slam Dunk HOFer = 78 Estimated WAR
Definite HOFer = 58 Estimated WAR
Strong HOF Case = 38 Estimated WAR
Weak HOF Case = 18 Estimated WAR
No HOF Case = 17 or fewer Estimated WAR
Odalis Marmol: 44 Estimated WAR = Strong HOF Case
Based on that information, I'll be voting for Johnson and Marmol and looking to the rest of the ballot to fill up to three slots. The next group of players I will be looking at are players in the first year of eligibility (which you can tell by looking at the "extras" in the HOF Voting screen and looking for guys whose "high vote" season is this year.) This season there are two hitters who fall into that category: Danny Carter (LF) and Reid Blume (RF). Using the standards seen above, Blume falls well short and Carter's case needs a bit of digging to make:
Left Field
Slam Dunk HOFer = 92+ Estimated WAR
Definite HOFer = 72 Estimated WAR
Strong HOF Case = 52 Estimated WAR
Weak HOF Case = 32 Estimated WAR
No HOF Case = 31 or fewer Estimated WAR
Danny Carter: 26 Estimated WAR = No HOF Case
As it turns out, Carter has no case for Virtual Cooperstown either, so I've still only used two of my five votes. This seems like a good season to give one of my votes to Tapies, who technically falls into the "No HOF Case" category but the bar at RP is currently very, very, very high due to there only being two guys at that position currently elected and his 102 Estimated WAR are the most that I've seen without getting elected and he is ahead of quite a few HOFers in that category.
Since I am running low on time before voting closes and may or may not have enough free time to do any more WAR calculations, I take a quick look at the "extras" screen to see if anyone pops out at me as being potentially worthy of a vote in a somewhat down year...Lewis Hatley (3B) and his World Series Ring/MVP combo grab my attention on the hitter's side while Donne Giavotella and his 3 Cy Young Awards also pop out at me. Those two will get my final votes for now, and if I have the chance to crunch more numbers before voting closes my focus will be on them.
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