Bases Loaded & Less Than Two Out

by bruinsfan911 9:55 AM 0 comments

 I recently posted in the World Chat that having the bases loaded with nobody out seems like a guarantee to end up being a negative result...and I've noticed it going both ways. So much so that every time I'm reading the box score and see the bases loaded early in the inning the words that go through my mind are ones that WIS turns into **** if I were to try to type them out 😂 

This is a trend that I've noticed for awhile and I've thought about writing a blog post about it several times but finally have the time to dig in a little as well as the prompting thanks to it happening yet again in the PM game today. Here's how I'm going to investigate the difference between MLB and Plumpy: this win expectancy finder tells us how many runs a team can expect to score in a given scenario. Apparently, bases loaded and nobody out has produced no runs scored 13.43% of the time during MLB seasons that occurred between 1903 and 2023...so now to compare my team with that tidbit I just need to scan through the box scores and see what the Trailblazers' conversion rate is. 

While reading through this season's box scores for that purpose, the first time that I remember this thought occurring to me was actually a bases loaded with one out scenario. A couple clicks of a button reveals that MLB teams fail to score in that scenario 32.83% of the time. Below is a list of the times that my Trailblazers have been in either of those scenarios so far this season on both offense and defense:

Bases Loaded, 0 Outs

• 2/19 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 1 run allowed
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs scored
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 10th = 1 run scored (with 2 outs) 
• 2/23 pm2 cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 5th = 4 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though) 
• 2/25 pm cycle: Bottom 8th = 0 runs scored

Offensive totals: Held scoreless in 4 out of 5 opportunities (80%) while MLB mark is 13.43%...probably just a small sample size but good to know I'm not totally crazy for having this theory 

Defensive Totals: Held opponents scoreless in 2 out of 4 opportunities (50%) with MLB mark of 13.43%....at least our defense is also doing better than MLB defenses 🤷‍♂️

Bases Loaded, 1 Out 

• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 4th = 4 runs scored
• 2/17 pm2 cycle: Top 10th = 1 run scored 
• 2/18 am cycle: Bottom 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/18 am cycle: Top 9th = 2 runs scored
• 2/18 pm cycle: Bottom 7th = 3 runs allowed
• 2/18 pm2 cycle: Bottom 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/19 pm cycle: Top 5th = 5 runs scored
• 2/20 pm2 cycle: Top 5th = 0 runs allowed
• 2/21 am cycle: Bottom 7th = 0 runs scored
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored
• 2/21 pm cycle: Bottom 6th = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/22 pm cycle: Bottom 3rd = 0 runs scored (had scored before we loaded the bases though)
• 2/23 am cycle: Bottom 9th = 0 runs scored
• 2/23 pm cycle: Top 2nd = 0 runs allowed
• 2/24 pm2 cycle: Top 8th = 1 run allowed
• 2/25 am cycle: Top 3rd = 3 runs allowed
• 2/25 pm2 cycle: Bottom 8th = 1 run scored

Offensive totals: held scoreless in 4 of 10 opportunities (40%) while the MLB mark is 32.83%...this is a larger sample size than I'd expect in just over 20 games, but at least the conversion rate is fairly similar to the MLB mark 

Defensive totals: held opponents scoreless in 4 of 7 opportunities (57%) with the MLB mark being 32.83%....not sure if we have gotten lucky, have a good defense or a bit of both 🤔